Sovereign financial disaster risk management: The case of Mexico

In 2006, Mexico became the first transition country to transfer part of its public-sector natural catastrophe risk to the international reinsurance and capital markets. The Mexican case is of considerable interest to highly exposed transition and developing countries, many of which are considering similar transactions. Risk financing instruments can assure governments of sufficient post-disaster capital to provide emergency response, disaster relief to the affected population and repair public infrastructure. The costs of financial instruments, however, can greatly exceed expected losses, and for this reason it is important to closely examine their benefits and alternatives. This paper analyzes the Mexican case from the perspective of the risk cedent (the Ministry of Finance and Public Credit), which was informed by analyses provided by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA). The rationale for a government to insure its contingent liabilities is presented along with the fiscal, legal and institutional context of the Mexican transaction. Using publicly available data, the paper scrutinizes the choice the authorities faced between two different risk-transfer instruments: reinsurance and a catastrophe bond. Making use of IIASA's catastrophe simulation model (CATSIM), this financial risk management decision is analyzed within the context of a public investment decision.     

Business recovery: an assessment framework

This paper presents a Business Recovery Assessment Framework (BRAF) to help researchers and practitioners design robust, repeatable, and comparable studies of business recovery in various post‐disruption contexts. Studies assessing business recovery without adequately considering the research aims, recovery definitions, and indicators can produce misleading findings. The BRAF is composed of a series of steps that guide the decisions that researchers need to make to ensure: (i) that recovery is indeed being measured; (ii) that the indicators of recovery that are selected align with the objectives of the study and the definition of recovery; and, where necessary, (iii) that appropriate comparative control variables are in place. The paper draws on a large dataset of business surveys collected following the earthquakes in Canterbury, New Zealand, on 4 September 2010 and 22 February 2011 to demonstrate the varied conclusions that different recovery indicators can produce and to justify the need for a systematic approach to business recovery assessments.     

Learning sustainable water practices through participatory irrigation management in Thailand

Participatory irrigation management (PIM) was adopted in Thailand in 2004 to encourage the sustainable use of water in the agricultural sector. The research presented in this paper sought to understand the relationships between public participation, learning, and the implementation of more sustainable water practices through PIM in Thailand. Data was collected through document reviews, observation, informal meetings, and a total of 55 semi‐structured face‐to‐face interviews of local irrigators from two case study regions around the Krasiew Reservoir. Results showed that participating in PIM activities facilitated both instrumental (e.g., water supply and demand data, benefits of on‐time water delivery) and communicative (e.g., reasons for past PIM failure, expectations of fellow farmers) learning among PIM participants. Findings also revealed that social action is fostered through the recognition of human dignity and compassionate communication that instils a sense of ownership and solidarity among irrigators. Sustainable water practices among local farmers were spurred further through learning that the reservoir is a finite water source.     

Spatial variability of infaunal nematode and polychaete assemblages in two muddy subtidal habitats

Spatial variation of populations and their assemblages is an important component of many aspects of ecology, including the maintenance of species diversity. In nature, organisms are generally aggregated in patches or form gradients or other spatially related patterns. This investigation quantified the degree of spatial structure in benthic invertebrate assemblages. It examined the distribution of infaunal assemblages of different size, mobility and contrasting life-history strategies (i.e. meiofaunal nematodes and macrofaunal polychaetes) in two offshore muddy habitats in the Celtic Deep and the NW Irish Sea off the west coast of the United Kingdom. The more heterogeneous habitat in the NW Irish Sea was characterised by higher tidal stress and bottom temperature while greater water depth, mean particle diameter and organic carbon content was typical for the comparatively homogeneous environment in the Celtic Deep. In both habitats, the environmental conditions became increasingly dissimilar with separation. A total of 125 nematode and 88 polychaete species were recorded with 69% of the nematode and 49% of polychaete species present at both study sites. Occurrence frequency of species, species diversity and average similarity of assemblage composition was higher in the Celtic Deep than in the NW Irish Sea. Results from correlation analyses revealed statistically robust relationships of community similarity and sample distance. Given their small size and low mobility, nematodes were more susceptible to within-habitat physical variability than larger-sized, more mobile polychaetes. This, coupled with limits to long-distance dispersal and likely restrictions in gene flow, resulted in a significant decrease in community similarity with distance at the spatial scales sampled (i.e. within 0.1–23 km). Polychaetes, in contrast, combined a higher dispersal potential (>23 km) with a relatively high tolerance to within-habitat environmental variability and these were the most likely causes for non-significant relationships between the similarity of their assemblages and sample distance. The potential mechanisms causing the observed variation and implications of results for environmental management strategies are discussed. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Predicting tree diversity across the United States as a function of modeled gross primary production.

At the regional and continental scale, ecologists have theorized that spatial variation in biodiversity can be interpreted as a response to differences in climate. To test this theory we assumed that ecological constraints associated with current climatic conditions (2000-2004) might best be correlated with tree richness if expressed through satellite-derived measures of gross primary production (GPP), rather than the more commonly used, but less consistently derived, net primary production. To evaluate current patterns in tree diversity across the contiguous United States we acquired information on tree composition from the USDA Forest Service's Forest Inventory and Analysis program that represented more than 17,4000 survey plots. We selected 2693 cells of 1000 km2 within which a sufficient number of plots were available to estimate tree richness per hectare. Our estimates of forest productivity varied from simple vegetation indices indicative of the fraction of light intercepted by canopies at 16-d intervals, a product from the MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectro-radiometer), to 8- and 10-d GPP products derived with minimal climatic data (MODIS) and SPOT-Vegetation (Systeme Pour l'Observation de la Terre), to 3-PGS (Physiological Principles Predicting Growth with Satellites), which requires both climate and soil data. Across the contiguous United States, modeled predictions of gross productivity accounted for between 51% and 77% of the recorded spatial variation in tree diversity, which ranged from 2 to 67 species per hectare. When the analyses were concentrated within nine broadly defined ecoregions, predictive relations largely disappeared. Only 3-PGS predictions fit a theorized unimodal function by being able to distinguish highly productive forests in the Pacific Northwest that support lower than expected tree diversity. Other models predicted a continuous steep rise in tree diversity with increasing productivity, and did so with generally better or nearly equal precision with fewer data requirements.     

The Influence of Proximity to a National Forest on Emotions and Fire-Management Decisions

Because American national forests are managed for all citizens, it is important that researchers explore the differences and similarities between citizens living both near and far from publicly managed land. We surveyed residents living at various distances from nationally managed land to collect resident perceptions of different forest fire-management techniques, to determine public preferences for these techniques, and to examine the motivations behind these preferences. Participants both close to and far away from national forests tended to favor a multipronged approach to fire management by preferring the use of a combination of two or more fire-management techniques. There were no significant differences by proximity in participants’ self-rated emotions, types of fire-management techniques preferred, or the reasons and rationales for their preferred fire-management technique(s), indicating that the proximity variable may not be as significant as previously thought.     

活性氮:多多益善?

尺度和范围 1790年,Jean Claude Chaptal将元素周期表中的第14个元素命名为"氮"[1].两个世纪后,氮在生物地球化学过程中的作用和其作为一种必需营养元素的重大功能得到了很好的理解.我们知道,人类(以及植物和动物)的生存离不开氮;大气中大量存在的氮气(N2)是植物和动物不能直接利用的一种化学形式;只有少数特殊的微生物能够将大气中的氮转化("固定")为植物、动物可以利用的活性氮(活性氮)[2];另一小群体的微生物能够将活性氮转化(反硝化)为氮气.     

Prenatal tests for Sanfilippo disease type B in four pregnancies

We report the prenatal diagnosis of two fetuses with Sanfilippo disease type B. In both pregnancies there were excessive amounts of heparan sulphate in amniotic fluid and the activity of N-acetyl-α-D-glucosaminidase was undetectable in cultured amniotic fluid cells. The predictions were confirmed by enzyme assay of cultured skin fibroblasts from the aborted fetus or the affected infant. The disorder was excluded for two other pregnancies at risk and the predictions are considered to be correct because of the normal progress of the healthy children.     

Prenatal exclusion of late infantile metachromatic leucodystrophy in a late-presenting pregnancy by assay of fetal leucocytes

Metachromatic leucodystrophy was excluded in a fetus at risk, by assay of fetal blood collected at fetoscopy. Isolated fetal leucocytes were shown to have activities of arylsulphatase A and cerebroside sulphatase in the heterozygous range. The prediction was confirmed in the newborn.     

活性氮与环保公共政策

美国和欧洲污染治理政策的一个核心目标,是建立环境中活性氮运移的相关法规和条例.这表现在美国联邦政府的立法上(例如<清洁空气法修正案>和<清洁水法修正案>),以及联合国欧洲经济委员会的各种议定书及其<远程跨边界空气污染公约>上.本文中我们首先回顾一下美国的这两部法规及其实施效果,并将它们与联合国欧洲经济委员会和<远程跨边界空气污染公约>主要在欧洲采用的一些方法进行对比.然后利用密西西比河流域和(或)墨西哥湾氧过少的案例研究结果,重点讨论运用"系统分析方法"处理区域性活性氮问题的重要性.在列举了与氮治理政策有关的一些无法回答的问题后,我们在文末简要描述了在制定完善的活性氮管理政策过程中将要实施的行动计划.