Viruses and bacteria which are characterized by finite lives in the subsurface are rapidly transported via fractures and cavities in fractured and karst aquifers. Here, we demonstrate how the coupling of a robust outcrop characterization and hydrogeophysical borehole testing is essential for prediction of contaminant velocities and hence wellhead protection areas. To show this, we use the dolostones of the Permian Magnesian Limestone aquifer in NE England, where we incorporated such information in a groundwater flow and particle tracking model. Within this aquifer, flow in relatively narrow (mechanical aperture of ~?10?1–1 mm) fractures is coupled with that in pipe cavities (~?0.20-m diameter) following normal faults. Karstic cavities and narrow fractures are hydraulically very different. Thus, the solutional features are represented within the model by a pipe network (which accounts for turbulence) embedded within an equivalent porous medium representing Darcian flowing fractures. Incorporation of fault conduits in a groundwater model shows that they strongly influence particle tracking results. Despite this, away from faulted areas, the effective flow porosity of the equivalent porous medium remains a crucial parameter. Here, we recommend as most appropriate a relatively low value of effective porosity (of 2.8?×?10?4) based on borehole hydrogeophysical testing. This contrasts with earlier studies using particle tracking analyses on analogous carbonate aquifers, which used much higher values of effective porosity, typically ~?102 times higher than our value, resulting in highly non-conservative estimates of aquifer vulnerability. Low values of effective flow porosities yield modelled flow velocities ranging from ~?100 up to ~?500 m/day in un-faulted areas. However, the high fracturing density and presence of karstic cavities yield modelled flow velocities up to ~?9000 m/day in fault zones. The combination of such flow velocities along particle traces results in 400-day particle traces up to 8-km length, implying the need for large well protection areas and high aquifer vulnerability to slowly degrading contaminants.
Climate change, although a natural phenomenon, is accelerated by human activities. Disaster policy response to climate change is dependent on a number of factors, such as readiness to accept the reality of climate change, institutions and capacity, as well as willingness to embed climate change risk assessment and management in development strategies. These conditions do not yet exist universally. A focus that neglects to enhance capacity-building and resilience as a prerequisite for managing climate change risks will, in all likelihood, do little to reduce vulnerability to those risks. Reducing vulnerability is a key aspect of reducing climate change risk. To do so requires a new approach to climate change risk and a change in institutional structures and relationships. A focus on development that neglects to enhance governance and resilience as a prerequisite for managing climate change risks will, in all likelihood, do little to reduce vulnerability to those risks. 相似文献
Application of animal manure amendments to agricultural soils is a common practice to improve soil fertility through the addition of essential plant nutrients. This practice may increase the potential for atrazine (2-chloro-4-ethylamino-6-isopropylamino-1, 3, 5-triazine) leaching due to competition for adsorption sites between the pesticide and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) added through manure. We evaluated the influence of liquid cow manure (LCM) application on soil properties, atrazine adsorption, and the physicochemical controlling mechanisms in an Andisol. The LCM was applied at rates equivalent to 0, 100,000, 200,000, and 300,000 L ha(-1), resulting in treatments S-0, S-100, S-200, and S-300, respectively. The LCM application increased DOC and pH of the soils immediately on addition, but pH returned to S-0 values 30 d after application. The LCM application did not modify atrazine adsorption with the two lowest application rates (S-100 and S-200), but atrazine adsorption was decreased in S-300 (K(f) = 0.96) compared with the control (S-0) (K(f) = 1.19), possibly due to the competitive adsorption of DOC with the pesticide. The Fourier-transformed infrared analysis showed that LCM increased aliphaticity and presence of N-containing groups and polysaccharide-like groups in amended soils; however, these properties did not modify the atrazine interaction in the studied amended soils. Interestingly the addition of DOC to soil at the high application rate (S-300) reduced atrazine adsorption in this rich OM Andisol despite the LCM not raising the concentration of stable organic matter. The application of high rates of liquid manure containing DOC incurs an increased risk of pesticide leaching. 相似文献
In 2006, Mexico became the first transition country to transfer part of its public-sector natural catastrophe risk to the international reinsurance and capital markets. The Mexican case is of considerable interest to highly exposed transition and developing countries, many of which are considering similar transactions. Risk financing instruments can assure governments of sufficient post-disaster capital to provide emergency response, disaster relief to the affected population and repair public infrastructure. The costs of financial instruments, however, can greatly exceed expected losses, and for this reason it is important to closely examine their benefits and alternatives. This paper analyzes the Mexican case from the perspective of the risk cedent (the Ministry of Finance and Public Credit), which was informed by analyses provided by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA). The rationale for a government to insure its contingent liabilities is presented along with the fiscal, legal and institutional context of the Mexican transaction. Using publicly available data, the paper scrutinizes the choice the authorities faced between two different risk-transfer instruments: reinsurance and a catastrophe bond. Making use of IIASA's catastrophe simulation model (CATSIM), this financial risk management decision is analyzed within the context of a public investment decision. 相似文献
Restoration of waterbird diversity and abundance is a key objective of river system management in Australia. Therefore, understanding the effects of climatic and hydrological variables on waterbird population dynamics is fundamental for successful river restoration programs. We investigated the population dynamics of waterbirds (total abundance) and seven functional waterbird groups in the floodplains of lower Murrumbidgee River. We found a general declining abundance trend from 1983 to 2007, except for the deep water foragers. We modelled the relative contribution of the climatic and hydrological factors to waterbird population decrease using the generalized additive model (GAM) framework after identifying the negative binomial distribution. Most of the seven functional groups were positively related to both annual rainfall and water usage, defined as the total water volume intercepted by the river reach, and the models indicated that rainfall was slightly more important. Temperature also played a role in waterbird abundance: the maximum summer temperature negatively influenced the abundance of dabbling ducks, shoreline foragers and fish eaters, while the minimum winter temperature positively affected the abundance of dabbling ducks and shoreline foragers. Overall, our results support the practice of providing environmental water for sustaining waterbird populations. However, environmental water provision is likely to be most effective when timed to coincide with antecedent rainfall. 相似文献
Understanding how individuals modify their social interactions in response to infectious disease is of central importance
for our comprehension of how disease dynamics operate in real-world populations. Whilst a significant amount of theoretical
work has modelled disease transmission using network models, we have comparatively little understanding of how infectious
disease impacts on the social behaviour of individuals and how these effects scale up to the level of the population. We experimentally
manipulated the parasite load of female guppies (Poecilia reticulata) and introduced fish either infected with the ectoparasites Gyrodactylus spp. (experimental) or uninfected (control) into replicated semi-natural populations of eight size-matched female guppies.
We quantified the behaviour and social associations of both the introduced fish and the population fish. We found that infected
experimental fish spent less time associating with the population fish than the uninfected control fish. Using information
on which fish initiated shoal fission (splitting) events, our results demonstrate that the population fish actively avoided
infected experimental fish. We also found that the presence of an infected individual resulted in a continued decline in social
network clustering up to at least 24 h after the introduction of the infected fish, whereas in the control treatment, the
clustering coefficient showed an increase at this time point. These results demonstrate that the presence of a disease has
implications for both the social associations of infected individuals and for the social network structure of the population,
which we predict will have consequences for infectious disease transmission. 相似文献
Alqueva Reservoir is the biggest artificial freshwater reservoir in Europe and is an important water supply for human and
agricultural consumption in the Alentejo region (Portugal). Pollution can impair environmental and human health status, and
to assure water quality and ecological balance, it is crucial to frequently monitor water supplies. In this study, we used
an ecotoxicological test battery to identify the potential toxicity of water from this reservoir. 相似文献