CLIMATIC CHANGE AND U.S. WATER RESOURCES: FROM MODELED WATERSHED IMPACTS TO NATIONAL ESTIMATES1

ABSTRACT: Water is potentially one of the most affected resources as climate changes. Though knowledge and understanding has steadily evolved about the nature and extent of many of the physical effects of possible climate change on water resources, much less is known about the economic responses and impacts that may emerge. Methods and results are presented that examine and quantify many of the important economic consequences of possible climate change on U.S. water resources. At the core of the assessment is the simulation of multiple climate change scenarios in economic models of four watersheds. These Water Allocation and Impact Models (Water‐AIM) simulate the effects of modeled runoff changes under various climate change scenarios on the spatial and temporal dimensions of water use, supply, and storage and on the magnitude and distribution of economic consequences. One of the key aspects and contributions of this approach is the capability of capturing economic response and adaptation behavior of water users to changes in water scarcity. By reflecting changes in the relative scarcity (and value) of water, users respond by changing their patterns of water use, intertemporal storage in reservoirs, and changes in the pricing of water. The estimates of economic welfare change that emerge from the Water‐AIM models are considered lower‐bound estimates owing to the conservative nature of the model formulation and key assumptions. The results from the Water‐AIM models form the basis for extrapolating impacts to the national level. Differences in the impacts across the regional models are carried through to the national assessment by matching the modeled basins with basins with similar geographical, climatic, and water use characteristics that have not been modeled and by using hydro‐logic data across all U.S. water resources regions. The results from the national analysis show that impacts are borne to a great extent by nonconsumptive users that depend on river flows, which rise and fall with precipitation, and by agricultural users, primarily in the western United States, that use a large share of available water in relatively low‐valued uses. Water used for municipal and industrial purposes is largely spared from reduced availability because of its relatively high marginal value. In some cases water quality concerns rise, and additional investments may be required to continue to meet established guidelines.     

Life on the Edge: Vulnerability and Adaptation of African Ecosystems to Global Climate Change

Donor countriesare providing financial and technicalsupport for global climate change countrystudies to help African nations meet theirreporting needs under the United NationsFramework Convention on Climate Change(UNFCCC). Technical assistance to completevulnerability and adaptation assessmentsincludes training of analysts, sharing ofcontemporary tools (e.g. simulationmodels), data and assessment techniques,information-sharing workshops and aninternational exchange programme foranalysts. This chapter summarizes 14African country studies (Botswana, Côted'Ivoire, Egypt, Ethiopia, the Gambia,Kenya, Malawi, Mauritius, Nigeria, SouthAfrica, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia andZimbabwe) assessing vulnerabilities toglobal climate change and identifyingadaptation options. The analysis revealedthat the participating African countriesare vulnerable to global climate change inmore than one of the followingsocio-economic sectors: coastal resources,agriculture, grasslands and livestock,water resources, forests, wildlife, andhuman health. This vulnerability isexacerbated by widespread poverty,recurrent droughts, inequitable landdistribution, environmental degradation,natural resource mismanagement anddependence on rain-fed agriculture. Arange of practical adaptation options wereidentified in key socio-economic sectors ofthe African nations analysed. However,underdeveloped human and institutionalcapacity, as well as the absence ofadequate infrastructure, renders manytraditional coping strategies (rooted inpolitical and economic stability)ineffective or insufficient. FutureAfrican country studies should be moreclosely coordinated with development ofnational climate change action plans     

Transport of Sewage Sludge From the 106-Mile Site - Results From an October Survey

Approximately 8 million tons of sewage sludge were disposed of annually at the 106-Mile Deepwater Municipal Sludge Dump Site (106-Mile Site) between 1987 and 1990. Beginning in 1988 and continuing to the present, the focus of monitoring at the 106-Mile Site moved towards improved understanding of the fate of the sludge. A survey conducted in October 1989 was designed to (1) detect the presence of any sludge particles that settle rapidly following disposal, (2) determine if sludge could be detected in the surface waters at locations away from the immediate disposal site, and (3) determine if water quality was degraded, by assessing whether the Environmental Protection Agency's marine water quality criteria were being exceeded.

The survey showed that the sludge does have a rapidly settling component composed of organic floc. mineral grains, and other heavy, gritlike particles, all of which are relatively large. These particles may settle at rates of between 8 and 180 m h^-1 and may reach the sea floor within 1 to 13 days following disposal. Even though a rapidly settling component is present in the sludge, a significant fraction of the sludge was detectable in the form of intact sludge plumes in the upper 35 m of the water column at least 15 km from the Site. in addition, unique tracers of sludge such as xylem tracheids and Clostridium perfringens plus elevated total suspended solids and trace metals concentrations, were found at locations up to 40 km from the Site. the presence of these tracers correspond with in situ transmissometry data suggesting that a fraction of the sludge was remaining in the near-surface waters above the seasonal pycnocline. Concentrations of metals were below EPA chronic marine water quality criteria, which indicates that the water quality downstream of the Site was not impaired. the detection of sludge downstream of the 106-Mile Site is consistent with the southwestward movement of the surface water mass during the survey, as recorded by satellite-tracked surface drifters and current vectors derived from a current meter moored at 100-m depth immediately west of the Site. Near-surface transport was generally towards the southwest at a speed of approximately 22 cm s^-1*.     

An evaluation of adaptation options for climate change impacts on agriculture in Kazakhstan

Agriculture in Kazakhstan is sensitive to climate, and wheat yields could be reduced up to 70% under climate change. With the transition from a socialist economy to a free market economy, decisions are being made now that will affect Kazakhstan's ability to cope with climate change. A team of Kazakh and American researchers examined the cost-effectiveness and barriers to implementations of adaptation options for climate change. Twelve adaptation options that increase flexibility to respond to climate change were identified using a screening matrix. Four options, forecasting pest outbreaks, developing regional centers for preserving genetic diversity of seeds, supporting a transition to a free market, and reducing soil erosion through the use of changed farming practices, were examined. The Adaptation Decision Matrix (ADM) was then applied to estimate benefits using expert judgment (using an arbitrary numerical scale, not monetary values) and benefits estimates were compared to costs to determine cost-effectiveness. The ADM uses subjective measures of how well adaptation options meet policy objectives. Controlling soil erosion was estimated to have the highest benefits, but the high costs of implementation appears to make it relatively cost-ineffective. Supporting a transition to a free market was ranked as the most cost-effective measure, with regional centers second. However, use of different scales to quantify benefits or different weights can result in regional centers being more cost-effective than the transition to a free market. Regional centers was also judged to have fewer barriers to implementation than a transition to a free market. These results will be incorporated in Kazakhstan's National Action Plan. The ADM and other tools are relatively easy to apply, but are quite subjective and difficult to evaluate. The tools can be quite useful by decision makers to analyze advantages and disadvantages between different adaptation options, but should be supplemented with additional, particularly quantitative analysis.     

Placental mosaicism in a case of 46,XY, −22, +t(22;22)(p11;q11) or i(22q) diagnosed at amniocentesis

46,XY, −22,+t(22;22)(p11;q11) or i(22q) was diagnosed in 15/15 cells from two cultures from the amniotic fluid culture of a 31-year-old patient whose fetus demonstrated cystic hygroma on ultrasound. Cytogenetic studies performed on fetal skin from the abortus revealed the same karyotype as that seen on amniocentesis, but the placenta demonstrated a 46,XY,46,XY, −22,+t(22;22) or i(22q) mosaicism, with 65 per cent of the cells being 46,XY. This case provides an example of placental mosaicism for a normal male karyotype, while the fetus demonstrated non-mosaic trisomy 22.