Short-Run Allocation of Emissions Allowances and Long-Term Goals for Climate Policy

We summarize the latest results on the rapid changes that are occurring to Arctic sea ice thickness and extent, the reasons for them, and the methods being used to monitor the changing ice thickness. Arctic sea ice extent had been shrinking at a relatively modest rate of 3–4% per decade (annually averaged) but after 1996 this speeded up to 10% per decade and in summer 2007 there was a massive collapse of ice extent to a new record minimum of only 4.1 million km². Thickness has been falling at a more rapid rate (43% in the 25 years from the early 1970s to late 1990s) with a specially rapid loss of mass from pressure ridges. The summer 2007 event may have arisen from an interaction between the long-term retreat and more rapid thinning rates. We review thickness monitoring techniques that show the greatest promise on different spatial and temporal scales, and for different purposes. We show results from some recent work from submarines, and speculate that the trends towards retreat and thinning will inevitably lead to an eventual loss of all ice in summer, which can be described as a ‘tipping point’ in that the former situation, of an Arctic covered with mainly multi-year ice, cannot be retrieved.     

Sex-specific nest defense in house sparrows (Passer domesticus) varies with badge size of males

According to indicator models of sexual selection, females can benefit from choosing males with above average epigamic traits, but empirical evidence for such benefits is scarce. Here, we report results from an experiment with 29 pairs of house sparrows (Passer domesticus) where the intensity of nest defense against a mounted mustelid predator was related to the size of the black throat and breast patch (“badge”) in males. Using principal components analysis (PCA), original response variables of both sexes were reduced to two factors: “Approach” to the predator and “Distant warning”. “Approach”, the more risky behavior, increased from small- through medium- to large-badged males and decreased in their females. Since large-badged males have a higher certainty of paternity (i.e. greater benefits from defense) and may be older and more experienced (i.e. incur lower costs), the most likely explanation for male defense intensity increasing with badge size is an improving benefit/cost ratio. The resulting optimal response of their females and evolutionarily stable participation in joint parental care is illustrated by a graphical model. It shows that females would, indeed, benefit directly from choosing large-badged males. This, however, is no proof of a direct evolutionary tie between badge size and paternal behavior, as assumed by indicator models of sexual selection. It may simply represent a spurious relationship, originating from the correlation of badge size and defense with confidence of paternity. Received: 22 September 1997 / Accepted after revision: 3 November 1997