Multilateral energy lending and urban bias in autocracies: promoting fossil fuels

Energy demand is growing rapidly across the world, and international funding agencies like the World Bank have responded by emphasizing energy in their project portfolios. Some of these projects promote the use of fossil fuels, while others support cleaner forms of energy. For climate change mitigation, it is important to understand how international funders decide on the choice between fossil fuels and cleaner sources of energy. Examining the energy funding portfolios of the nine most important international funders for the years 2008-2011, we show that funding for fossil fuels has been concentrated in highly urbanized autocracies. Due to economies of scale, fossil fuels are suitable for generating heat and electricity for densely populated urban areas. Autocratic rulers are subject to urban bias in their policy formulation because the support of concentrated urban constituencies is key to an autocrat’s political survival, and in democracies environmental constituencies can effectively oppose fossil fuel projects.     

Estimating changes in flood risks and benefits of non-structural adaptation strategies - a case study from Tyrol,Austria

Flood damage has increased significantly and is expected to rise further in many parts of the world. For assessing potential changes in flood risk, this paper presents an integrated model chain quantifying flood hazards and losses while considering climate and land use changes. In the case study region, risk estimates for the present and the near future illustrate that changes in flood risk by 2030 are relatively low compared to historic periods. While the impact of climate change on the flood hazard and risk by 2030 is slight or negligible, strong urbanisation associated with economic growth contributes to a remarkable increase in flood risk. Therefore, it is recommended to frequently consider land use scenarios and economic developments when assessing future flood risks. Further, an adapted and sustainable risk management is necessary to encounter rising flood losses, in which non-structural measures are becoming more and more important. The case study demonstrates that adaptation by non-structural measures such as stricter land use regulations or enhancement of private precaution is capable of reducing flood risk by around 30 %. Ignoring flood risks, in contrast, always leads to further increasing losses—with our assumptions by 17 %. These findings underline that private precaution and land use regulation could be taken into account as low cost adaptation strategies to global climate change in many flood prone areas. Since such measures reduce flood risk regardless of climate or land use changes, they can also be recommended as no-regret measures.