An analytical platform for cumulative impact assessment based on multiple futures: the impact of petroleum drilling and forest harvesting on moose (Alces alces) and marten (Martes americana) habitats in northeastern British Columbia

The combined influence on the environment of all projects occurring in a single area is evaluated through cumulative impact assessments (CIA), which consider the consequences of multiple projects, each insignificant on its own, yet important when evaluated collectively. Traditionally, future human activities are included in CIA using an analytical platform, commonly based on complex models that supply precise predictions but with reduced accuracy. To compensate for the lack of accuracy in current CIA approaches, we propose a shift in the paradigm governing CIA. The paradigm shift involves a change in the focus of CIA investigations from the detailed analysis of one unlikely future to the identification of the patterns describing multiple potential future changes in the environment. To illustrate the approach, a set of 144 possible and equally likely futures were developed that aimed to identify the potential impacts of forest harvesting and petroleum drilling on the habitat suitability of moose and marten in northeast British Columbia, Canada. The evolution of two measures of habitat suitability (average habitat suitability index and surface of the stands with habitat suitability index >0.5) revealed that the human activities could induce cycles in the habitat dynamics of moose and marten. The planning period of 100 years was separated into three distinct periods following a sinusoidal pattern (i.e., increase - constant - decrease in the habitat suitability measures). The attributes that could induce significant changes in the assessment of environment are the choice of harvesting age and species.     

A harvest failure approach to assess the threat from an invasive species

We present the idea of using potential infringements on annual allowable harvest targets as an approach to estimate threats from invasive species to the forest products sector. The approach uses present-day harvest levels as a reference level to estimate when and where the impact of a nonnative forest pest could become economically damaging. We use a generic model that simulates spread and damage by nonnative invasive species, basic harvest and forest growth through time. The concept is illustrated with a case study of a new nonnative invasive pest, Sirex noctilio Fabricius on pine resources in eastern Canada. Impacts of invasion on wood supply, in particular, the point at which present-day harvest levels are not attainable, were identified for 77 non-overlapping geographical regions that delimit the primary wood supply areas around large mills and wood processing facilities in eastern Canada. The results identify the minimum area of a pest outbreak that could trigger harvest shortages (approximately 12.5–14 M ha of pine forests in Ontario and Quebec). Beyond this level, the amount of host resource available for harvesting in any given year declines rapidly. The failure to sustain broad-scale harvest targets may be an attractive and intuitive indicator for policy makers and regulators interested in developing control and “slow-the-spread” programs for non-native forest pests.     

Residential Demand for Water in the Chicago Metropolitan Area1

Mieno, Taro and John B. Braden, 2011. Residential Demand for Water in the Chicago Metropolitan Area. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(4):713‐723. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00536.x Abstract: This paper provides the first contemporary analysis of residential water demand in humid Northeastern Illinois, in the vicinity of Chicago, and explores seasonal and income‐based differentials in the responsiveness of water use to water prices. Using a panel of system‐level data for eight water systems and controlling for seasons, weather, incomes, and community characteristics, the analysis yields low estimates of price elasticity of demand for water in line with other studies. Furthermore, price response is greater in summer and less in higher income communities. We suggest that use of seasonal pricing can help mitigate equity issues arising from differential income elasticities while taking advantage of the greater price responsiveness of summertime water use.     

Role of the fish Astyanax aeneus (Characidae) as a keystone nutrient recycler in low-nutrient neotropical streams

Nutrient recycling by animals is a potentially important biogeochemical process in both terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. Stoichiometric traits of individual species may result in some taxa playing disproportionately important roles in the recycling of nutrients relative to their biomass, acting as keystone nutrient recyclers. We examined factors controlling the relative contribution of 12 Neotropical fish species to nutrient recycling in four streams spanning a range of phosphorus (P) levels. In high-P conditions (135 microg/L soluble reactive phosphorus, SRP), most species fed on P-enriched diets and P excretion rates were high across species. In low-P conditions (3 microg/L SRP), aquatic food resources were depleted in P, and species with higher body P content showed low rates of P recycling. However, fishes that were subsidized by terrestrial inputs were decoupled from aquatic P availability and therefore excreted P at disproportionately high rates. One of these species, Astyanax aeneus (Characidae), represented 12% of the total population and 18% of the total biomass of the fish assemblage in our focal low-P study stream but had P excretion rates > 10-fold higher than other abundant fishes. As a result, we estimated that P excretion by A. aeneus accounted for 90% of the P recycled by this fish assemblage and also supplied approximately 90% of the stream P demand in this P-limited ecosystem. Nitrogen excretion rates showed little variation among species, and the contribution of a given species to ecosystem N recycling was largely dependent upon the total biomass of that species. Because of the high variability in P excretion rates among fish species, ecosystem-level P recycling could be particularly sensitive to changes in fish community structure in P-limited systems.     

Evolution of a stream ecosystem in recently deglaciated terrain

Climate change and associated glacial recession create new stream habitat that leads to the assembly of new riverine communities through primary succession. However, there are still very few studies of the patterns and processes of community assembly during primary succession for stream ecosystems. We illustrate the rapidity with which biotic communities can colonize and establish in recently formed streams by examining Stonefly Creek in Glacier Bay, Alaska (USA), which began to emerge from a remnant glacial ice mass between 1976 and 1979. By 2002, 57 macroinvertebrate and 27 microcrustacea species had become established. Within 10 years of the stream's formation, pink salmon and Dolly Varden charr colonized, followed by other fish species, including juvenile red and silver salmon, Coast Range sculpin, and sticklebacks. Stable-isotope analyses indicate that marine-derived nitrogen from the decay of salmon carcasses was substantially assimilated within the aquatic food web by 2004. The findings from Stonefly Creek are compared with those from a long-term study of a similarly formed but older stream (12 km to the northeast) to examine possible similarities in macroinvertebrate community and biological trait composition between streams at similar stages of development. Macroinvertebrate community assembly appears to have been initially strongly deterministic owing to low water temperature associated with remnant ice masses. In contrast, microcrustacean community assembly appears to have been more stochastic. However, as stream age and water temperature increased, macroinvertebrate colonization was also more stochastic, and taxonomic similarity between Stonefly Creek and a stream at the same stage of development was <50%. However the most abundant taxa were similar, and functional diversity of the two communities was almost identical. Tolerance is suggested as the major mechanism of community assembly. The rapidity with which salmonids and invertebrate communities have become established across an entire watershed has implications for the conservation of biodiversity in freshwater habitats.     

Diet of young Atlantic bluefin tuna (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Thunnus thynnus</Emphasis>) in eastern and western Atlantic foraging grounds

Atlantic bluefin tuna (Thunnus thynnus) are highly migratory predators whose abundance, distribution, and somatic condition have changed over the past decades. Prey community composition and abundance have also varied in several foraging grounds. To better understand underlying food webs and regional energy sources, we performed stomach content and stable isotope analyses on mainly juvenile (60–150 cm curved fork length) bluefin tuna captured in foraging grounds in the western (Mid-Atlantic Bight) and eastern (Bay of Biscay) Atlantic Ocean. In the Mid-Atlantic Bight, bluefin tuna diet was mainly sand lance (Ammodytes spp., 29% prey weight), consistent with historic findings. In the Bay of Biscay, krill (Meganyctiphanes norvegica) and anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus) made up 39% prey weight, with relative consumption of each reflecting annual changes in prey abundance. Consumption of anchovies apparently declined after the local collapse of this prey resource. In both regions, stable isotope analysis results showed that juvenile bluefin tuna fed at a lower trophic position than indicated by stomach content analysis. In the Mid-Atlantic Bight, stable isotope analyses suggested that >30% of the diet was prey from lower trophic levels that composed <10% of the prey weights based upon traditional stomach content analyses. Trophic position was similar to juvenile fish sampled in the NW Atlantic but lower than juveniles sampled in the Mediterranean Sea in previous studies. Our findings indicate that juvenile bluefin tuna targeted a relatively small range of prey species and regional foraging patterns remained consistent over time in the Mid-Atlantic Bight but changed in relation to local prey availability in the Bay of Biscay.     

Factors Affecting Stream Nutrient Loads: A Synthesis of Regional SPARROW Model Results for the Continental United States1

Preston, Stephen D., Richard B. Alexander, Gregory E. Schwarz, and Charles G. Crawford, 2011. Factors Affecting Stream Nutrient Loads: A Synthesis of Regional SPARROW Model Results for the Continental United States. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(5):891‐915. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00577.x Abstract: We compared the results of 12 recently calibrated regional SPARROW (SPAtially Referenced Regressions On Watershed attributes) models covering most of the continental United States to evaluate the consistency and regional differences in factors affecting stream nutrient loads. The models – 6 for total nitrogen and 6 for total phosphorus – all provide similar levels of prediction accuracy, but those for major river basins in the eastern half of the country were somewhat more accurate. The models simulate long‐term mean annual stream nutrient loads as a function of a wide range of known sources and climatic (precipitation, temperature), landscape (e.g., soils, geology), and aquatic factors affecting nutrient fate and transport. The results confirm the dominant effects of urban and agricultural sources on stream nutrient loads nationally and regionally, but reveal considerable spatial variability in the specific types of sources that control water quality. These include regional differences in the relative importance of different types of urban (municipal and industrial point vs. diffuse urban runoff) and agriculture (crop cultivation vs. animal waste) sources, as well as the effects of atmospheric deposition, mining, and background (e.g., soil phosphorus) sources on stream nutrients. Overall, we found that the SPARROW model results provide a consistent set of information for identifying the major sources and environmental factors affecting nutrient fate and transport in United States watersheds at regional and subregional scales.     

Validation of spectral gas radiation models under oxyfuel conditions. Part A: Gas cell experiments

Combustion of hydrocarbon fuels with pure oxygen results in a different flue gas composition as combustion with air. Standard CFD spectral gas radiation models for air combustion are out of their validity range. The series of three articles provides a common spectral basis for the validation of new developed models. In part A of the series gas cell transmissivity spectra in the spectral range of 2.4–5.4 μm of water vapor and carbon dioxide in the temperature range from 727 to 1500 ° C and at different concentrations were compared at a nominal resolution of 32 cm^?1 to line-by-line models from different databases, two statistical-narrow-band models and the exponential wide band model. The two statistical-narrow-band models EM2C and RADCAL showed a good agreement with a maximal band transmissivity deviation of 3%. The exponential-wide-band model showed a deviation of 6%. The new line-by-line database HITEMP2010 had the lowest band transmissivity deviation of 2.2% and was recommended as a reference model for the validation of simplified CFD models.     

Impacts associated with the recent range shift of the aeolid nudibranch <Emphasis Type="Italic">Phidiana hiltoni</Emphasis> (Mollusca,Opisthobranchia) in California

In 1977, Phidiana hiltoni (O’Donoghue in J. Entomol Zool (Pomona College, Claremont, California) 19:77–119, 1927) began spreading northward from Monterey, California. By 1992, it had reached Duxbury Reef (37° 53′ 23″ N, 122° 41′ 59″ W), 100 km to the north, where other nudibranchs subsequently appeared to decline. The role of P. hiltoni in this decline was investigated through diet analysis, feeding trials, and comparison of historical and recent abundance data. In the wild, P. hiltoni preyed largely on hydroids, but also showed evidence of predation on nudibranchs. In the laboratory, P. hiltoni attacked most of the dendronotid and aeolid nudibranchs presented to it, ingesting small individuals whole. The pooled abundance of nudibranchs vulnerable to attack by P. hiltoni declined an average of two-thirds at Duxbury Reef since its arrival, compared to (1) no change in the non-vulnerable species and (2) no change in either group at two other sites where P. hiltoni was one to two orders of magnitude less abundant. Phidiana hiltoni therefore appears to have caused this decline, likely through a combination of direct predation and competition for prey. A brief larval period, combined with cyclonic re-circulation in the lee of Point Reyes, may be driving self-recruitment of P. hiltoni at Duxbury Reef, as well as hindering further northward spread.     

Pressure cookers or pressure valves: Do roads lead to deforestation in China?

The effect of roads on forests is ambiguous. Many studies conclude that building and upgrading roads increases pressure on forests but some find that new and better roads may reduce the rate of deforestation. In this paper we use satellite remote sensing images of forest cover in Jiangxi Province, China, to test whether the existence and the size of roads (ranging from expressways to tertiary roads) in 1995 affected the level of forest cover in 2000 or the rate of change between 1995 and 2000. To account for road access for each of our 1 km² (“pixel”) units of forest cover we measure whether or not and what type of roads penetrate the “watershed” in which the pixel lies. These watersheds allow more plausible measures of accessibility than do traditional “crowfly” distance measures that ignore topography. To account for possible confounding we also use 12 additional covariates: geographic and climatic variables (e.g., elevation, slope, rainfall, temperature, soil properties); demographic and economic variables (e.g., local population and GDP per square kilometer); and distance variables (e.g., distance to the nearest provincial capital). Although simple univariate OLS regressions show that forest levels are lower and deforestation rates higher either when there is a road, or when there is a higher quality road, these results are not robust. Controlling for all of the covariates and also using recently developed covariate matching techniques to estimate treatment effects, we find that roads in China’s Jiangxi Province can most safely be described as having no impact on the level of forests and no impact on the rate of deforestation.