DEVELOPMENT OF EMPIRICAL,GEOGRAPHICALLY SPECIFIC WATER QUALITY CRITERIA: A CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY ANALYSIS APPROACH1

The need for scientifically defensible water quality standards for nonpoint source pollution control continues to be a pressing environmental issue. The probability of impact at differing levels of nonpoint source pollution was determined using the biological response of instream organisms empirically obtained from a statistical survey. A conditional probability analysis was used to calculate a biological threshold of impact as a function of the likelihood of exceeding a given value of pollution metric for a specified geographic area. Uncertainty and natural variability were inherently incorporated into the analysis through the use of data from a probabilistic survey. Data from wadable streams in the mid‐Atlantic area of the U.S. were used to demonstrate the approach. Benthic macroinvertebrate community index values (EPT taxa richness) were used to identify impacted stream communities. Percent fines in substrate (silt/clay fraction, > 0.06 mm) were used as a surrogate indicator for sedimentation. Thresholds of impact due to sedimentation were identified by three different techniques, and were in the range of 12 to 15 percent fines. These values were consistent with existing literature from laboratory and field studies on the impact of sediments on aquatic life in freshwater streams. All results were different from values determined from current regulatory guidance. Finally, it was illustrated how these thresholds could be used to develop criterion for protection of aquatic life in streams.     

On measuring wealth: a case study on the state of Queensland

In order for policy makers to plan effectively for sustainable development, there is a need for measures of welfare that consider changes in the natural capital stock. Current measures based on conventional national accounting are flawed because they are based solely on flow measures and do not account for environmental effects. In this paper, we use an expanded measure of wealth to estimate the value of natural capital for Queensland. The state's stock of natural capital is valued at A dollar 355.6 billion, of which non-timber forest resources account for 45.3%, ecosystem services 20.0%, and mineral resources 17.6%. This figure is a conservative estimate of the true value since some significant components such as the ecological and life-support functions of the environment are excluded. The estimates highlight the relative importance of different forms of natural capital and can be used to draw the attention of policymakers to the need to give adequate weight to the value of such services in decision-making processes.     

Science in the public process of ecosystem management: lessons from Hawaii, Southeast Asia, Africa and the US Mainland

Partnerships and co-operative environmental management are increasing worldwide as is the call for scientific input in the public process of ecosystem management. In Hawaii, private landowners, non-governmental organizations, and state and federal agencies have formed watershed partnerships to conserve and better manage upland forested watersheds. In this paper, findings of an international workshop convened in Hawaii to explore the strengths of approaches used to assess stakeholder values of environmental resources and foster consensus in the public process of ecosystem management are presented. Authors draw upon field experience in projects throughout Hawaii, Southeast Asia, Africa and the US mainland to derive a set of lessons learned that can be applied to Hawaiian and other watershed partnerships in an effort to promote consensus and sustainable ecosystem management. Interdisciplinary science-based models can serve as effective tools to identify areas of potential consensus in the process of ecosystem management. Effective integration of scientific input in co-operative ecosystem management depends on the role of science, the stakeholders and decision-makers involved, and the common language utilized to compare tradeoffs. Trust is essential to consensus building and the integration of scientific input must be transparent and inclusive of public feedback. Consideration of all relevant stakeholders and the actual benefits and costs of management activities to each stakeholder is essential. Perceptions and intuitive responses of people can be as influential as analytical processes in decision-making and must be addressed. Deliberative, dynamic and iterative decision-making processes all influence the level of stakeholder achievement of consensus. In Hawaii, application of lessons learned can promote more informed and democratic decision processes, quality scientific analysis that is relevant, and legitimacy and public acceptance of ecosystem management.     

A PCE groundwater plume discharging to a river: influence of the streambed and near-river zone on contaminant distributions

An investigation of a tetrachloroethene (PCE) groundwater plume originating at a dry cleaning facility on a sand aquifer and discharging to a river showed that the near-river zone strongly modified the distribution, concentration, and composition of the plume prior to discharging into the surface water. The plume, streambed concentration, and hydrogeology were extensively characterized using the Waterloo profiler, mini-profiler, conventional and driveable multilevel samplers (MLS), Ground Penetrating Radar (GPR) surveys, streambed temperature mapping (to identify discharge zones), drivepoint piezometers, and soil coring and testing. The plume observed in the shallow streambed deposits was significantly different from what would have been predicted based on the characteristics of the upgradient plume. Spatial and temporal variations in the plume entering the near-river zone contributed to the complex contaminant distribution observed in the streambed where concentrations varied by factors of 100 to 5000 over lateral distances of less than 1 to 3.5 m. Low hydraulic conductivity semi-confining deposits and geological heterogeneities at depth below the streambed controlled the pattern of groundwater discharge through the streambed and influenced where the plume discharged into the river (even causing the plume to spread out over the full width of the streambed at some locations). The most important effect of the near-river zone on the plume was the extensive anaerobic biodegradation that occurred in the top 2.5 m of the streambed, even though essentially no biodegradation of the PCE plume was observed in the upgradient aquifer. Approximately 54% of the area of the plume in the streambed consisted solely of PCE transformation products, primarily cis-1,2-dichloroethene (cDCE) and vinyl chloride (VC). High concentrations in the interstitial water of the streambed did not correspond to high groundwater-discharge zones, but instead occurred in low discharge zones and are likely sorbed or retarded remnants of past high-concentration plume discharges. The high-concentration areas (up to 5529 microg/l of total volatile organics) in the streambed are of ecological concern and represent potential adverse exposure locations for benthic and hyporheic zone aquatic life, but the effect of these exposures on the overall health of the river has yet to be determined. Even if the upgradient source of PCE is remediated and additional PCE is prevented from reaching the streambed, the high-concentration deposits in the streambed will likely take decades to hundreds of years to flush completely clean under natural conditions because these areas have low vertical groundwater flow velocities and high retardation factors. Despite high concentrations of contaminants in the streambed, PCE was detected in the surface water only rarely due to rapid dilution in the river and no cDCE or VC was detected. Neither the sampling of surface water nor the sampling of the groundwater from the aquifer immediately adjacent to the river gave an accurate indication of the high concentrations of PCE biodegradation products present in the streambed. Sampling of the interstitial water of the shallow streambed deposits is necessary to accurately characterize the nature of plumes discharging to rivers.     

METHODOLOGIES FOR CALIBRATION AND PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS OF A WATERSHED MODEL1

ABSTRACT: The use of a fitted parameter watershed model to address water quantity and quality management issues requires that it be calibrated under a wide range of hydrologic conditions. However, rarely does model calibration result in a unique parameter set. Parameter nonuniqueness can lead to predictive nonuniqueness. The extent of model predictive uncertainty should be investigated if management decisions are to be based on model projections. Using models built for four neighboring watersheds in the Neuse River Basin of North Carolina, the application of the automated parameter optimization software PEST in conjunction with the Hydrologic Simulation Program Fortran (HSPF) is demonstrated. Parameter nonuniqueness is illustrated, and a method is presented for calculating many different sets of parameters, all of which acceptably calibrate a watershed model. A regularization methodology is discussed in which models for similar watersheds can be calibrated simultaneously. Using this method, parameter differences between watershed models can be minimized while maintaining fit between model outputs and field observations. In recognition of the fact that parameter nonuniqueness and predictive uncertainty are inherent to the modeling process, PEST's nonlinear predictive analysis functionality is then used to explore the extent of model predictive uncertainty.     

Calibration and Verification of SWMM for Low Impact Development

The Storm Water Management Model was used to simulate runoff and nutrient export from a low impact development (LID) watershed and a watershed using traditional runoff controls. Predictions were compared to observed values. Uncalibrated simulations underpredicted weekly runoff volume and average peak flow rates from the multiple subcatchment LID watershed by over 80%; the single subcatchment traditional watershed had better predictions. Saturated hydraulic conductivity, Manning's n for swales, and initial soil moisture deficit were sensitive parameters. After calibration, prediction of total weekly runoff volume for the LID and traditional watersheds improved to within 12 and 5% of observed values, respectively. For the validation period, predicted total weekly runoff volumes for the LID and traditional watersheds were within 6 and 2% of observed values, respectively. Water quality simulation was less successful, Nash–Sutcliffe coefficients >0.5 for both calibration and validation periods were only achieved for prediction of total nitrogen export from the LID watershed. Simulation of a 100‐year, 24‐h storm resulted in a runoff coefficient of 0.46 for the LID watershed and 0.59 for the traditional watershed. Results suggest either calibration is needed to improve predictions for LID watersheds or expanded look‐up tables for Green–Ampt infiltration parameter values that account for compaction of urban soil and antecedent conditions are needed.     

In situ ammonia removal in bioreactor landfill leachate

Although bioreactor landfills have many advantages associated with them, challenges remain, including the persistence of NH(3)-N in the leachate. Because NH(3)-N is both persistent and toxic, it will likely influence when the landfill is biologically stable and when post-closure monitoring may end. An in situ nitrogen removal technique would be advantageous. Recent studies have shown the efficacy of such processes; however, they are lacking the data required to enable adequate implementation at field-scale bioreactor landfills. Research was conducted to evaluate the kinetics of in situ ammonia removal in both acclimated and unacclimated wastes to aid in developing guidance for field-scale implementation. Results demonstrate that in situ nitrification is feasible in an aerated solid waste environment and that the potential for simultaneous nitrification and denitrification (even under low biodegradable C:N conditions) in field-scale bioreactor landfills is significant due to the presence of both aerobic and anoxic areas. All rate data fit well to Monod kinetics, with specific rates of removal of 0.196 and 0.117 mgN/day-g dry waste and half-saturation constants of 59.6 and 147 mgN/L for acclimated and unacclimated wastes, respectively. Although specific rates of ammonia removal in the unacclimated waste are lower than in the acclimated waste, a relatively quick start-up of ammonia removal was observed in the unacclimated waste. Using the removal rate expressions developed will allow for estimation of the treatment times and volumes necessary to remove NH(3)-N from recirculated landfill leachate.     

Long Term Trends in Sulphur and Nitrogen Deposition in Europe and the Cause of Non-linearities

Emissions of sulphur and oxidized nitrogen compounds in Europe have been reduced following a series of control measures during the last two decades. These changes have taken place during a period in which the primary gases and the wet deposition throughout Europe were extensively monitored. Since the end of the 1970s, for example land based sulphur emissions declined by between 90 and 70% depending on the region. Over the same period the total deposition of sulphur and its partitioning into wet and dry deposition have declined, but the spatial pattern in the reduction in deposition differs from that of emission and has changed with time. Such non-linearities in the emission-deposition relationship are important to understand as they complicate the process of assessing the effects of emission reduction strategies. Observed non-linearities in terrestrial sulphur emission-deposition patterns have been identified in north west Europe due to increases in marine emissions, and are currently slowing the recovery of freshwater ecosystems. Changes in the relative amounts of SO₂ and NH₃ in air over the last two decades have also changed the affinity of terrestrial surfaces for SO₂ and have therefore changed the deposition velocity of SO₂ over substantial areas. The consequence of this effect has been the very rapid reduction in ambient SO₂ concentration in some of the major source areas of Europe, where NH₃ did not change much. Interactions between the different pollutants, generating non-linearities are now being incorporated in long-range transport models to simulate the effects of historical emission trends and to provide projections into the future. This paper identifies non-linearities in emission deposition relationships for sulphur and nitrogen compounds in Europe using data from the EMEP long-rang transport model and measured concentration fields of the major ions in precipitation and of SO₂ and NO₂ in surface air.     

ECONOMIC EFFECTS OF RIVER RECREATION ON LOCAL ECONOMIES1

ABSTRACT: Outdoor recreation is a major, growing use of water resources in the United States. The economic effects of expenditures by visitors to three recreational river sites on local economies surrounding the sites were estimated using an input-output model (IMPL.AN). Expenditure data were from the Public Area Recreation Visitors Study (PARVS). Results indicate that visitor spending stimulates a considerable amount of economic activity and growth in local economies. Economic effects include increases in total gross output ranging from $2.6 million to $13.4 million, increases in total income ranging from $1.2 million to $5.6 million, and increases in employment ranging from 60 to 292 jobs.