Probability analyses of combining background concentrations with model-predicted concentrations

In order to calculate total concentrations for comparison to ambient air quality standards, monitored background concentrations are often combined with model predicted concentrations. Models have low skill in predicting the locations or time series of observed concentrations. Further, adding fixed points on the probability distributions of monitored and predicted concentrations is very conservative and not mathematically correct. Simply adding the 99th percentile predicted to the 99th percentile background will not yield the 99th percentile of the combined distributions. Instead, an appropriate distribution can be created by calculating all possible pairwise combinations of the 1-hr daily maximum observed background and daily maximum predicted concentration, from which a 99th percentile total value can be obtained. This paper reviews some techniques commonly used for determining background concentrations and combining modeled and background concentrations. The paper proposes an approach to determine the joint probabilities of occurrence of modeled and background concentrations. The pairwise combinations approach yields a more realistic prediction of total concentrations than the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) guidance approach and agrees with the probabilistic form of the National Ambient Air Quality Standards.

Implications: EPA's current approaches to determining background concentrations for compliance modeling purposes often lead to “double counting” of background concentrations and actual plume impacts and thus lead to overpredictions of total impacts. Further, the current Tier 1 approach of simply adding the top ends of the background and model predicted concentrations (e.g., adding the 99th percentiles of these distributions together) results in design value concentrations at probabilities in excess of the form of the National Ambient Air Quality Standards.     

Particulate matter speciation profiles for light-duty gasoline vehicles in the United States

Representative profiles for particulate matter particles less than or equal to 2.5 µm (PM_2.5) are developed from the Kansas City Light-Duty Vehicle Emissions Study for use in the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) vehicle emission model, the Motor Vehicle Emission Simulator (MOVES), and for inclusion in the EPA SPECIATE database for speciation profiles. The profiles are compatible with the inputs of current photochemical air quality models, including the Community Multiscale Air Quality Aerosol Module Version 6 (AE6). The composition of light-duty gasoline PM_2.5 emissions differs significantly between cold start and hot stabilized running emissions, and between older and newer vehicles, reflecting both impacts of aging/deterioration and changes in vehicle technology. Fleet-average PM_2.5 profiles are estimated for cold start and hot stabilized running emission processes. Fleet-average profiles are calculated to include emissions from deteriorated high-emitting vehicles that are expected to continue to contribute disproportionately to the fleet-wide PM_2.5 emissions into the future. The profiles are calculated using a weighted average of the PM_2.5 composition according to the contribution of PM_2.5 emissions from each class of vehicles in the on-road gasoline fleet in the Kansas City Metropolitan Statistical Area. The paper introduces methods to exclude insignificant measurements, correct for organic carbon positive artifact, and control for contamination from the testing infrastructure in developing speciation profiles. The uncertainty of the PM_2.5 species fraction in each profile is quantified using sampling survey analysis methods. The primary use of the profiles is to develop PM_2.5 emissions inventories for the United States, but the profiles may also be used in source apportionment, atmospheric modeling, and exposure assessment, and as a basis for light-duty gasoline emission profiles for countries with limited data.

Implications: PM_2.5 speciation profiles were developed from a large sample of light-duty gasoline vehicles tested in the Kansas City area. Separate PM_2.5 profiles represent cold start and hot stabilized running emission processes to distinguish important differences in chemical composition. Statistical analysis was used to construct profiles that represent PM_2.5 emissions from the U.S. vehicle fleet based on vehicles tested from the 2005 calendar year Kansas City metropolitan area. The profiles have been incorporated into the EPA MOVES emissions model, as well as the EPA SPECIATE database, to improve emission inventories and provide the PM_2.5 chemical characterization needed by CMAQv5.0 for atmospheric chemistry modeling.     

Comparative statistical study of hourly precipitation determined by radar-based Stage IV and ground-based methods in the North Central United States

Detailed hourly precipitation data are required for long-range modeling of dispersion and wet deposition of particulate matter and water-soluble pollutants using the CALPUFF model. In sparsely populated areas such as the north central United States, ground-based precipitation measurement stations may be too widely spaced to offer a complete and accurate spatial representation of hourly precipitation within a modeling domain. The availability of remotely sensed precipitation data by satellite and the National Weather Service array of next-generation radars (NEXRAD) deployed nationally provide an opportunity to improve on the paucity of data for these areas. Before adopting a new method of precipitation estimation in a modeling protocol, it should be compared with the ground-based precipitation measurements, which are currently relied upon for modeling purposes. This paper presents a statistical comparison between hourly precipitation measurements for the years 2006 through 2008 at 25 ground-based stations in the north central United States and radar-based precipitation measurements available from the National Center for Environmental Predictions (NCEP) as Stage IV data at the nearest grid cell to each selected precipitation station. It was found that the statistical agreement between the two methods depends strongly on whether the ground-based hourly precipitation is measured to within 0.1 in/hr or to within 0.01 in/hr. The results of the statistical comparison indicate that it would be more accurate to use gridded Stage IV precipitation data in a gridded dispersion model for a long-range simulation, than to rely on precipitation data interpolated between widely scattered rain gauges.

Implications:

The current reliance on ground-based rain gauges for precipitation events and hourly data for modeling of dispersion and wet deposition of particulate matter and water-soluble pollutants results in potentially large discontinuity in data coverage and the need to extrapolate data between monitoring stations. The use of radar-based precipitation data, which is available for the entire continental United States and nearby areas, would resolve these data gaps and provide a complete and accurate spatial representation of hourly precipitation within a large modeling domain.     

PM10 concentration levels at an urban and background site in Cyprus: The impact of urban sources and dust storms

Air quality in Cyprus is influenced by both local and transported pollution, including desert dust storms. We examined PM₁₀ concentration data collected in Nicosia (urban representative) from April 1, 1993, through December 11, 2008, and in Ayia Marina (rural background representative) from January 1, 1999, through December 31, 2008. Measurements were conducted using a Tapered Element Oscillating Micro-balance (TEOM). PM₁₀ concentrations, meteorological records, and satellite data were used to identify dust storm days. We investigated long-term trends using a Generalized Additive Model (GAM) after controlling for day of week, month, temperature, wind speed, and relative humidity. In Nicosia, annual PM₁₀ concentrations ranged from 50.4 to 63.8 μg/m³ and exceeded the EU annual standard limit enacted in 2005 of 40 μg/m³ every year. A large, statistically significant impact of urban sources (defined as the difference between urban and background levels) was seen in Nicosia over the period 2000–2008, and was highest during traffic hours, weekdays, cold months, and low wind conditions. Our estimate of the mean (standard error) contribution of urban sources to the daily ambient PM₁₀ was 24.0 (0.4) μg/m³. The study of yearly trends showed that PM₁₀ levels in Nicosia decreased from 59.4 μg/m³ in 1993 to 49.0 μg/m³ in 2008, probably in part as a result of traffic emission control policies in Cyprus. In Ayia Marina, annual concentrations ranged from 27.3 to 35.6 μg/m³, and no obvious time trends were observed. The levels measured at the Cyprus background site are comparable to background concentrations reported in other Eastern Mediterranean countries. Average daily PM₁₀ concentrations during desert dust storms were around 100 μg/m³ since 2000 and much higher in earlier years. Despite the large impact of dust storms and their increasing frequency over time, dust storms were responsible for a small fraction of the exceedances of the daily PM₁₀ limit.

ImplicationsThis paper examines PM₁₀ concentrations in Nicosia, Cyprus, from 1993 to 2008. The decrease in PM₁₀ levels in Nicosia suggests that the implementation of traffic emission control policies in Cyprus has been effective. However, particle levels still exceeded the European Union annual standard, and dust storms were responsible for a small fraction of the daily PM₁₀ limit exceedances. Other natural particles that are not assessed in this study, such as resuspended soil and sea salt, may be responsible in part for the high particle levels.     

Major ionic compositions of fine particulate matter in an animal feeding operation facility and its vicinity

Animal feeding operations (AFOs) produce particulate matter (PM) and gaseous pollutants. Investigation of the chemical composition of PM_2.5 inside and in the local vicinity of AFOs can help to understand the impact of the AFO emissions on ambient secondary PM formation. This study was conducted on a commercial egg production farm in North Carolina. Samples of PM_2.5 were collected from five stations, with one located in an egg production house and the other four located in the vicinity of the farm along four wind directions. The major ions of NH₄⁺, Na⁺, K⁺, SO₄^2?, Cl^?, and NO₃^? were analyzed using ion chromatography (IC). In the house, the mostly abundant ions were SO₄^2?, Cl^?, and K⁺. At ambient stations, SO₄^2?, and NH₄⁺ were the two most abundant ions. In the house, NH₄⁺, SO₄^2?, and NO₃^? accounted for only 10% of the PM_2.5 mass; at ambient locations, NH₄⁺, SO₄^2?, and NO₃^? accounted for 36–41% of the PM_2.5 mass. In the house, NH₄⁺ had small seasonal variations indicating that gas-phase NH₃ was not the only major force driving its gas–particle partitioning. At the ambient stations, NH₄⁺ had the highest concentrations in summer. In the house, K⁺, Na⁺, and Cl^? were highly correlated with each other. In ambient locations, SO₄^2? and NH₄⁺ had a strong correlation, whereas in the house, SO₄^2? and NH₄⁺ had a very weak correlation. Ambient temperature and solar radiation were positively correlated with NH₄⁺ and SO₄^2?. This study suggests that secondary PM formation inside the animal house was not an important source of PM_2.5. In the vicinity, NH₃ emissions had greater impact on PM_2.5 formation.

ImplicationsThe chemical composition of PM_2.5 inside and in the local vicinity of AFOs showed the impact of the AFO emissions on ambient secondary PM_2.5 formation, and the fate and transport of air pollutants associated with AFOs. The results may help to manage in-house animal facility air quality, and to develop regional air quality control strategies and policies, especially in animal agriculture-concentrated areas.     

U.S. National PM2.5 Chemical Speciation Monitoring Networks—CSN and IMPROVE: Description of networks

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) initiated the national PM_2.5 Chemical Speciation Monitoring Network (CSN) in 2000 to support evaluation of long-term trends and to better quantify the impact of sources on particulate matter (PM) concentrations in the size range below 2.5 μm aerodynamic diameter (PM_2.5; fine particles). The network peaked at more than 260 sites in 2005. In response to the 1999 Regional Haze Rule and the need to better understand the regional transport of PM, EPA also augmented the long-existing Interagency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environments (IMPROVE) visibility monitoring network in 2000, adding nearly 100 additional IMPROVE sites in rural Class 1 Areas across the country. Both networks measure the major chemical components of PM_2.5 using historically accepted filter-based methods. Components measured by both networks include major anions, carbonaceous material, and a series of trace elements. CSN also measures ammonium and other cations directly, whereas IMPROVE estimates ammonium assuming complete neutralization of the measured sulfate and nitrate. IMPROVE also measures chloride and nitrite. In general, the field and laboratory approaches used in the two networks are similar; however, there are numerous, often subtle differences in sampling and chemical analysis methods, shipping, and quality control practices. These could potentially affect merging the two data sets when used to understand better the impact of sources on PM concentrations and the regional nature and long-range transport of PM_2.5. This paper describes, for the first time in the peer-reviewed literature, these networks as they have existed since 2000, outlines differences in field and laboratory approaches, provides a summary of the analytical parameters that address data uncertainty, and summarizes major network changes since the inception of CSN.

ImplicationsTwo long-term chemical speciation particle monitoring networks have operated simultaneously in the United States since 2001, when the EPA began regular operations of its PM_2.5 Chemical Speciation Monitoring Network (IMPROVE began in 1988). These networks use similar field sampling and analytical methods, but there are numerous, often subtle differences in equipment and methodologies that can affect the results. This paper describes these networks since 2000 (inception of CSN) and their differences, and summarizes the analytical parameters that address data uncertainty, providing researchers and policymakers with background information they may need (e.g., for 2018 PM_2.5 designation and State Implementation Plan process; McCarthy, 2013) to assess results from each network and decide how these data sets can be mutually employed for enhanced analyses. Changes in CSN and IMPROVE that have occurred over the years also are described.     

Optimization-Based Atmospheric Plume Source Identification

This work applies optimization and an Eulerian inversion approach presented by Bagtzoglou and Baun in 2005 in order to reconstruct contaminant plume time histories and to identify the likely source of atmospheric contamination using data from a real test site for the first time. Present-day distribution of an atmospheric contaminant plume as well as data points reflecting the plume history allow the reconstruction and provide the plume velocity, distribution, and probable source. The method was tested to a hypothetical case and with data from the Forest Atmosphere Transfer and Storage (FACTS) experiment in the Duke experimental forest site. In the scenarios presented herein, as well as in numerous cases tested for verification purposes, the model conserved mass, successfully located the peak of the plume, and managed to capture the motion of the plume well but underestimated the contaminant peak.     

Volatile Organic Compounds from Coal Tar and Soil Vapor Samples at MGP Sites

This study characterized organic compounds found in New York State manufactured gas plant (MGP) coal tar vapors using controlled laboratory experiments from four separate MGP sites. In addition, a limited number of deep (0.3–1.2 m above coal tar) and shallow (1.2–2.4 m above coal tar) soil vapor samples were collected above the in situ coal tar source at three of these sites. A total of 29 compounds were consistently detected in the laboratory-generated coal tar vapors at 50°C, whereas 24 compounds were detected at 10°C. The compounds detected in the field sample results were inconsistent with the compounds found in the laboratory-generated samples. Concentrations of compounds in the shallow soil vapor sample were either non-detectable or substantially lower than those found in deeper samples, suggesting attenuation in the vadose zone. Laboratory-generated data at 50°C compared the (% non-aromatic)/(% aromatic) ratio and indicated that this ratio may provide good discrimination between coal tar vapor and common petroleum distillates.