Prediction of extinction in plants: interaction of extrinsic threats and life history traits

The global extinction of species proceeds through the erosion of local populations. Using a 60-year time series of annual sighting records of plant species, we studied the correlates of local extinction risk associated with a risk of species extinction in the Park Grass Experiment where plants received long-term exposure to nutrient enrichment, soil acidification, and reductions in habitat size. We used multivariate linear models to assess how extrinsic threats and life history traits influence extinction risk. We investigated effects of four extrinsic threats (nitrogen enrichment, productivity, acidification, and plot size) as well as 11 life history traits (month of earliest flowering, flowering duration, stress tolerance, ruderalness [plant species' ability to cope with habitat disturbance], plant height, diaspore mass, seed bank, life form, dispersal mode, apomixis [the ability for a species to reproduce asexuall through seeds], and mating system). Extinction risk was not influenced by plant family. All of the 11 life history traits except life form and all threat variables influenced extinction risk but always via interactions which typically involved one threat variable and one life history trait. We detected comparatively few significant interactions between life history traits, and the interacting traits compensated for each other. These results suggest that simple predictions about extinction risk based on species' traits alone will often fail. In contrast, understanding the interactions between extrinsic threats and life history traits will allow us to make more accurate predictions of extinctions.     

El Niño periods increase growth of juvenile white seabass (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Atractoscion nobilis</Emphasis>) in the Southern California Bight

Studies of the impact of El Niño periods on marine species have usually focused on negative, highly visible effects, e.g., decreasing growth rates or increasing mortality due to a decline in primary productivity in typically nutrient rich upwelling zones; but positive effects related to elevated water temperature are also known. This study examined how the growth rate of juvenile white seabass, Atractoscion nobilis, responded to changes in ocean temperature in an El Niño period (1997–1998) in the northern portion of the Southern California Bight, USA. Growth rates of juvenile white seabass during their first 4 years of life were estimated as the slopes of linear relationships between body mass and age (from otoliths) of 800 fish collected at 11 stations throughout the bight. Growth rates differed significantly among cohorts hatched in 1996–2001. Specifically, white seabass that hatched in 1996 and 1997 grew significantly faster than those that hatched in 1998, 1999, and 2001. These differences in growth rates of cohorts appeared to be driven by variation in sea-surface temperature (SST). Growth rates averaged over the first three or 4 years of life were significantly positively correlated to average daily SST during the first 1–4 years of life. Increased growth of juvenile white seabass during the warm El Niño period likely provided a number of benefits to this warm-temperate species. This study demonstrated that some species will benefit from these warm-water periods despite reduced system-wide primary production.     

Occurrence of alternative flame retardants in indoor dust from New Zealand: indoor sources and human exposure assessment

Due to worldwide restrictions on polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs), the demand for alternative flame retardants (AFRs), such as organophosphate flame retardants (OPFRs), novel brominated FRs (NBFRs) and hexabromocyclododecanes (HBCDs), has recently increased. Little is known about human exposure to NBFRs and OPFRs and that their levels in dust have been scarcely evaluated worldwide. To increase the knowledge regarding these chemicals, we measured concentrations of five major NBFRs, ten OPFRs and three HBCD isomers in indoor dust from New Zealand homes. Dust samples were taken from living room floors (n=34) and from mattresses of the same houses (n=16). Concentrations (ngg(-1)) of NBFRs were: 1,2-bis(2,4,6-tribromophenoxy)ethane (BTBPE) (<2-175), decabromodiphenyl ethane (DBDPE) (<5-1430), 2-ethylhexyl-2,3,4,5-tetrabromobenzoate (TBB) (<2-2285) and bis(2-ethylhexyl)-3,4,5,6-tetrabromophthalate (TBPH) (<2-640). For OPFRs, concentrations (ngg(-1)) ranged between: tri-ethyl-phosphate (TEP) (<10-235), tri-n-butyl-phosphate (TnBP) (<20-7545), tris-(2-chloroethyl)-phosphate (TCEP) (<20-7605), tris-(1-chloro-2-propyl) phosphate (TCPP) (20-7615), tri-(2-butoxyethyl)-phosphate (TBEP) (50-27325), tris-(2,3-dichloropropyl)-phosphate (TDCPP) (20-16560), tri-phenyl-phosphate (TPhP) (20-35190), and tri-cresyl-phosphate (TCP) (<50-3760). HBCD concentrations fell in the range <2-4100ngg(-1). BTBPE, DBDPE, TBPH, TBEP, and TnBP showed significant positive correlation (p<0.05) between their concentrations in mattresses and the corresponding floor dust (n=16). These data were used to derive a range of plausible exposure scenarios. Although the estimated exposure is well below the corresponding reference doses (RfDs), caution is needed given the likely future increase in use of these FRs and the currently unknown contribution to human exposure by other pathways such as inhalation and diet.     

Method to assess component contribution to toxicity of complex mixtures: Assessment of puberty acquisition in rats exposed to disinfection byproducts

A method based on regression modeling was developed to discern the contribution of component chemicals to the toxicity of highly complex, environmentally realistic mixtures of disinfection byproducts(DBPs). Chemical disinfection of drinking water forms DBP mixtures.Because of concerns about possible reproductive and developmental toxicity, a whole mixture(WM) of DBPs produced by chlorination of a water concentrate was administered as drinking water to Sprague–Dawley(S–D) rats in a multigenerational study. Age of puberty acquisition,i.e., preputial separation(PPS) and vaginal opening(VO), was examined in male and female offspring, respectively. When compared to controls, a slight, but statistically significant delay in puberty acquisition was observed in females but not in males. WM-induced differences in the age at puberty acquisition were compared to those reported in S–D rats administered either a defined mixture(DM) of nine regulated DBPs or individual DBPs. Regression models were developed using individual animal data on age at PPS or VO from the DM study. Puberty acquisition data reported in the WM and individual DBP studies were then compared with the DM models. The delay in puberty acquisition observed in the WM-treated female rats could not be distinguished from delays predicted by the DM regression model, suggesting that the nine regulated DBPs in the DM might account for much of the delay observed in the WM. This method is applicable to mixtures of other types of chemicals and other endpoints.     

Decreased Runoff Response to Precipitation,Little Missouri River Basin,Northern Great Plains,USA

High variability in precipitation and streamflow in the semiarid northern Great Plains causes large uncertainty in water availability. This uncertainty is compounded by potential effects of future climate change. We examined historical variability in annual and growing season precipitation, temperature, and streamflow within the Little Missouri River Basin and identified differences in the runoff response to precipitation for the period 1976‐2012 compared to 1939‐1975 (n = 37 years in both cases). Computed mean values for the second half of the record showed little change (<5%) in annual or growing season precipitation, but average annual runoff at the basin outlet decreased by 22%, with 66% of the reduction in flow occurring during the growing season. Our results show a statistically significant (p < 0.10) 27% decrease in the annual runoff response to precipitation (runoff ratio). Surface‐water withdrawals for various uses appear to account for <12% of the reduction in average annual flow volume, and we found no published or reported evidence of substantial flow reduction caused by groundwater pumping in this basin. Results of our analysis suggest that increases in monthly average maximum and minimum temperatures, including >1°C increases in January through March, are the dominant driver of the observed decrease in runoff response to precipitation in the Little Missouri River Basin.     

Speciation of selected heavy metals geochemistry in surface sediments from Tirumalairajan river estuary, east coast of India

Surface sediment samples from the Tirumalairajan river estuary were studied for grain size pattern, organic matter, and heavy metals (Fe, Mn, Zn, and Pb) using the sequential and bulk metal extraction methods to evaluate metal behavior. Ten surface sediment samples were collected during the monsoon and summer seasons of the year 2009. The observed orders of concentrations of heavy metals in the sediments were as follows: Fe?>?Mn?>?Zn?>?Pb. The results obtained from sequential extraction showed that, among the metals studied, a larger portion of the metals were associated with the residual phase, although they are available in other fractions. The low concentration of metals available in bioavailable phases indicated that the sediments of Tirumalairajan river estuary were relatively unpolluted. Correlation analysis was also carried out to understand the associations of metals in different phases with sand, silt, clay, and organic matter. To understand the risk of heavy metals to sediment-dwelling organisms, the data were compared with risk assessment code and sediment quality values using the screening quick reference table. The main source of metals to the estuary is from the irrigation field and its associated activities in the study area.     

Effects of spatial autocorrelation and sampling design on estimates of protected area effectiveness

Estimating the effectiveness of protected areas (PAs) in reducing deforestation is useful to support decisions on whether to invest in better management of areas already protected or to create new ones. Statistical matching is commonly used to assess this effectiveness, but spatial autocorrelation and regional differences in protection effectiveness are frequently overlooked. Using Colombia as a case study, we employed statistical matching to account for confounding factors in park location and accounted for for spatial autocorrelation to determine statistical significance. We compared the performance of different matching procedures—ways of generating matching pairs at different scales—in estimating PA effectiveness. Differences in matching procedures affected covariate similarity between matched pairs (balance) and estimates of PA effectiveness in reducing deforestation. Independent matching yielded the greatest balance. On average 95% of variables in each region were balanced with independent matching, whereas 33% of variables were balanced when using the method that performed worst. The best estimates suggested that average deforestation inside protected areas in Colombia was 40% lower than in matched sites. Protection significantly reduced deforestation, but PA effectiveness differed among regions. Protected areas in Caribe were the most effective, whereas those in Orinoco and Pacific were least effective. Our results demonstrate that accounting for spatial autocorrelation and using independent matching for each subset of data is needed to infer the effectiveness of protection in reducing deforestation. Not accounting for spatial autocorrelation can distort the assessment of protection effectiveness, increasing type I and II errors and inflating effect size. Our method allowed improved estimates of protection effectiveness across scales and under different conditions and can be applied to other regions to effectively assess PA performance.     

Why telecoupling research needs to account for environmental justice

ABSTRACT

Engaging with normative questions in land system science is a key challenge. This debate paper highlights the potential of incorporating elements of environmental justice scholarship into the evolving telecoupling framework that focuses on distant interactions in land systems. We first expose the reasons why environmental justice matters in understanding telecoupled systems, and the relevant approaches suited to mainstream environmental justice into telecoupled contexts. We then explore which specific elements of environmental justice need to be incorporated into telecoupling research. We focus on 1) the distribution of social-ecological burdens and benefits across distances, 2) power and justice issues in governing distantly tied systems, and 3) recognition issues in information flows, framings and discourses across distances. We conclude our paper highlighting key mechanisms to address injustices in telecoupled land systems.     

Park isolation in anthropogenic landscapes: land change and livelihoods at park boundaries in the African Albertine Rift

Regional Environmental Change - Landscapes are changing rapidly in regions where rural people live adjacent to protected parks and reserves. This is the case in highland East Africa, where many...     

Promiscuity: an inbreeding avoidance mechanism in a socially monogamous species?

Summary Paternity likelihood was tested in a population of splendid fairy-wrens Malurus splendens by allozyme electrophoresis. A total of 91 offspring of 24 dams and 37 putative sires were typed at 10 polymorphic loci. All young were compatible with their dams but at least 65% were not fathered by any of the males in their group. A long-term study of this wren population has shown that the males are sedentary, show little evidence of dispersal and help care for the nestlings and fledglings in their group. Had the senior male sired all the offspring in his group, there would have been a high incidence of close inbreeding. The promiscuous mating system demonstrated here would reduce the level of inbreeding in the population but still allow individuals the security of group-living in a stable year-round territory. Offprint requests to: M.G. Brooker