Statistical methods for forecasting daily snow depths and assessing trends in inter-annual snow depth dynamics

Environmental and Ecological Statistics - This paper introduces a time-varying parameter regression model for modeling, forecasting, and assessing inter-annual trends in daily snow depths. The...     

Dreams within a dream: Multiple visions and organizational structure

Research has long recognized the potential benefits of vision communicated at all levels of organizations. Despite this recognition, our understanding of the dynamics surrounding suborganizational visions remains limited. In this paper, we aim to explore these dynamics by investigating the role of organizational structure in the use of suborganizational visions. Although research has begun exploring the implications of structure for vision, it has done so on a limited basis in the context of vertical hierarchies. We take a more comprehensive view, exploring the role of both vertical and horizontal dimensions of structure, with specific interest in the relationship between organizational and suborganizational visions. Our findings suggest not only that structural distance moderates the relationship between organizational and suborganizational visions but also that horizontal distance from the organizational core provides the conditions under which suborganizational units communicate distinct visions that are decoupled from the organizational vision. Furthermore, we find a series of coordinating mechanisms that serve to encourage both the vertical nesting and horizontal complementarity of visions, ensuring alignment, even in the presence of decoupling from the organizational vision. Finally, in describing these findings, we elucidate the role of institutions in both providing content for and ensuring the complementarity of suborganizational visions.     

Chicken manure biochar as liming and nutrient source for acid Appalachian soil

Acid weathered soils often require lime and fertilizer application to overcome nutrient deficiencies and metal toxicity to increase soil productivity. Slow-pyrolysis chicken manure biochars, produced at 350 and 700°C with and without subsequent steam activation, were evaluated in an incubation study as soil amendments for a representative acid and highly weathered soil from Appalachia. Biochars were mixed at 5, 10, 20, and 40 g kg into a Gilpin soil (fine-loamy, mixed, active, mesic Typic Hapludult) and incubated in a climate-controlled chamber for 8 wk, along with a nonamended control and soil amended with agronomic dolomitic lime (AgLime). At the end of the incubation, soil pH, nutrient availability (by Mehlich-3 and ammonium bicarbonate diethylene triamine pentaacetic acid [AB-DTPA] extractions), and soil leachate composition were evaluated. Biochar effect on soil pH was process- and rate-dependent. Biochar increased soil pH from 4.8 to 6.6 at the high application rate (40 g kg), but was less effective than AgLime. Biochar produced at 350°C without activation had the least effect on soil pH. Biochar increased soil Mehlich-3 extractable micro- and macronutrients. On the basis of unit element applied, increase in pyrolysis temperature and biochar activation decreased availability of K, P, and S compared to nonactivated biochar produced at 350°C. Activated biochars reduced AB-DTPA extractable Al and Cd more than AgLime. Biochar did not increase NO in leachate, but increased dissolved organic carbon, total N and P, PO, SO, and K at high application rate (40 g kg). Risks of elevated levels of dissolved P may limit chicken manure biochar application rate. Applied at low rates, these biochars provide added nutritional value with low adverse impact on leachate composition.     

Water security: Old concepts,new package,what value?

“Water security” has come to infiltrate prominent discourse in the international water and development community, and achieving it is often viewed as a new water sector target. Despite the elevated status that the concept has increasingly acquired, understandings of the term are murky and quantification is rare. To promote a more tangible understanding of the concept, this paper develops an index for evaluating water security at a country level. The index is comprised of indicators in five components considered to be critical to the concept: (i) basic needs; (ii) agricultural production; (iii) the environment; (iv) risk management; and (v) independence. Achieving water security in these components can be considered necessary but insufficient criteria to measure the achievement of security in related areas such as health, livelihoods, and industry. After populating indicators with data from Asia‐Pacific countries, results are interpreted and the viability of methods is discussed. This effort comprises an important first step for quantifying and assessing water security across countries, which should spur more concrete understanding of the term and discussion of its added value.     

Moving beyond the conceptual: specificity in regional climate change adaptation actions for biodiversity in South East Queensland,Australia

While many scientific assessments have been recommending general strategies for biodiversity conservation under climate change, translation of these recommendations into specific actions and practice has been limited. Focusing on two biomes, rainforest and wetlands in biodiverse South East Queensland, Australia, we demonstrate how general principles can be translated into specific actions for stakeholders and responsible agencies. We synthesize research that is contextualizing protection of refugia and habitat connectivity, establishing baseline data sets to detect change and developing strategic conservation planning scenarios to adjust reserve boundaries or situate new reserves. This has been achieved by coupling spatial information on biological assets (i.e. ecosystems and species) with future climate scenarios and process models to anticipate movement of critical habitats. Conservation planning software is also being used to prioritize investment to meet specific objectives. This approach is enabling us to identify at-risk biological assets, opportunities to ameliorate threats and obstacles to delivering regional adaptation actions. A larger total reserved area is needed, with proactive planning to capture areas further inland and along watercourses. Major obstacles include conflict between urbanization and priorities for habitat conservation and the need for greater levels of investment for monitoring programmes and to protect landward shifted wetlands on private land.     

Metal mobilization in soil by two structurally defined polyphenols

Polyphenols including tannins comprise a large percentage of plant detritus such as leaf litter, and affect soil processes including metal dynamics. We tested the effects of tannins on soil metal mobilization by determining the binding stoichiometries of two model polyphenols to Al(III) and Fe(III) using micelle-mediated separation and inductively coupled plasma optical emission spectroscopy (ICP-OES). By fitting the data to the Langmuir model we found the higher molecular weight polyphenol (oenothein B) was able to bind more metal than the smaller polyphenol (epigallocatechin gallate, EGCg). For example, oenothein B bound 9.43 mol Fe mol^?1, while EGCg bound 4.41 mol of Fe mol^?1. Using the parameters from the binding model, we applied the Langmuir model for competitive binding to predict binding for mixtures of Al(III) and Fe(III). Using the parameters from the single metal experiments and information about polyphenol sorption to soils we built a model to predict metal mobilization from soils amended with polyphenols. We tested the model with three natural soils and found that it predicted mobilization of Fe and Al with r² = 0.92 and r² = 0.88, respectively. The amount of metal that was mobilized was directly proportional to the maximum amount of metal bound to the polyphenol. The secondary parameter in each model was the amount of weak organically chelated Fe or Al that was in the soil. This study provides the first compound-specific information about how natural polyphenols interact with metals in the environment. We propose a model that is applicable to developing phytochelation agents for metal detoxification, and we discuss how tannins may play a role in metal mobilization from soils.     

Spatial trends of organochlorinated pesticides,polychlorinated biphenyls,and polybrominated diphenyl ethers in Atlantic Anguillid eels

The bioaccumulation of lipophilic contaminants such as polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), organochlorine pesticides (OCPs), and polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) can result in a reduction in fitness and spawner quality in eels and may be a factor in Anguillid sp. population declines. Contaminant concentrations in eels have been studied extensively in Europe, but data for American eels are severely lacking. Concentrations of PCBs, OCPs, and PBDEs were determined in American eel from eastern Canada and New York, USA, along with European eel from Belgium. Principal component analysis revealed that eels captured in the St. Lawrence estuary were a mixture of upstream migrants from the St. Lawrence River watershed, and fish captured in local tributaries. Contaminant concentrations were dependent on origin, related to the local environment, and were lower than historic values. In Canada, concentrations of OCPs and PCBs in eel tissues were below the Canadian human consumption guidelines for contaminants in fish, indicating that the current risk to consumers is low. However, concentrations of PCBs, total DDT, and mirex in eels from L. Ontario and the upper St. Lawrence R. were above Great Lakes guidelines for the protection of piscivorous predators. Concentrations of penta-BDE homologs exceeded the Canadian guideline for environmental quality in over half of the eels in this study, but concentrations of the other homolog groups were below the guideline.     

Temporal Trends of Young-of-Year Fishes in Lake Erie and Comparison of Diel Sampling Periods

We explored temporal trends of young-of-year (YOY) fishes caught in bottom trawl hauls at an established offshore monitoring site in Lake Erie in fall during 1961–2001. Sampling was conducted during morning, afternoon, and night in each year. Catches per hour (CPH) of alewife (Alosa pseudoharengus) YOY were relatively low and exhibited no temporal trend. This result was consistent with the species’ intolerance to Lake Erie’s adverse winter water temperatures. Gizzard shad (Dorosoma cepedianum) YOY decreased sharply after 1991, which was consistent with recent oligotrophication of the lake. Following the establishment in 1979 and rapid increase of white perch (Morone americana) YOY, white bass (Morone chrysops) and freshwater drum (Aplodinotus grunniens) YOY decreased. Trout-perch (Percopsis omiscomaycus) YOY decreased during 1986–1991, but recovered to previous levels during 1991–2001. The recovery coincided with the resurgence of mayflies (Ephemoptera) in the lake. CPH of spottail shiner (Notropis hudsonius) and emerald shiner (N. atherinoides) YOY exhibited no temporal trend between 1961 and the late 1970s to early 1980s. CPH of yellow perch (Perca flavescens) YOY decreased during 1961–1988, and walleye (Sander vitreum) YOY increased overall during the time series. These observations were consistent with published studies of adults in the region. CPH of 4 of the 10 species of YOY considered were greatest during night. CPH for walleye YOY was higher in the morning than in the afternoon, but there was no significant difference between night and morning abundances. The results suggest that (1) CPH of YOY fishes may be a useful monitoring tool for Lake Erie, and (2) offshore monitoring programs that do not include night sampling periods may underestimate recruitment for several common species.     

An assessment of the environmental and socio-economic impacts of alien rabbits and hares

Directly comparable data on the environmental and socio-economic impacts of alien species informs the effective prioritisation of their management. We used two frameworks, the Environmental Impact Classification for Alien Taxa (EICAT) and Socio-Economic Impact Classification for Alien Taxa (SEICAT), to create a unified dataset on the severity and type of impacts caused by alien leporids (rabbits and hares). Literature was reviewed to collate impact data, which was categorised following EICAT and SEICAT guidelines. We aimed to use these data to identify: (1) alien leporid species with severe impacts, (2) their impact mechanisms, (3) the native species and local communities vulnerable to impacts and (4) knowledge gaps. Native species from a range of taxonomic groups were affected by environmental impacts which tended to be more damaging than socio-economic impacts. Indirect environmental impacts were particularly damaging and underreported. No impact data were found for several alien leporid species.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13280-021-01642-7.     

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in soils along the coastal and estuarine areas of the northern Bohai and Yellow Seas, China

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and their health risks in surface soils (n?=?31) collected from coastal and estuarine areas of the northern Bohai and Yellow Seas (CEANBYS), China, were investigated. Total concentrations of PAHs ranged from 6.6?×?10¹ to 9.2?×?10²?ng?g^?1 dry weight, with an average of 3.1?×?10²?ng?g^?1 dw. The locations where greater concentrations of PAHs were observed were all near factories emitting black smoke or on the edge of the urban areas. These observations are consistent with concentrations of PAHs in soils being influenced by human activities, especially industrialization and urbanization. Concentrations of PAHs were significantly correlated with concentrations of organic carbon in soils. The patterns of relative concentrations and types of PAHs observed as well as knowledge of the potential sources were consistent with the primary sources of PAHs in soils of the CEANBYS being derived from the pyrolytic processes such as combustion of fossil fuel. The incremental lifetime cancer risks of exposing to PAHs for child, youth, and adult were 1.6?×?10^?6, 1.2?×?10^?6, and 1.9?×?10^?6.