Testing for thresholds of ecosystem collapse in seagrass meadows

Although the public desire for healthy environments is clear‐cut, the science and management of ecosystem health has not been as simple. Ecological systems can be dynamic and can shift abruptly from one ecosystem state to another. Such unpredictable shifts result when ecological thresholds are crossed; that is, small cumulative increases in an environmental stressor drive a much greater change than could be predicted from linear effects, suggesting an unforeseen tipping point is crossed. In coastal waters, broad‐scale seagrass loss often occurs as a sudden event associated with human‐driven nutrient enrichment (eutrophication). We tested whether the response of seagrass ecosystems to coastal nutrient enrichment is subject to a threshold effect. We exposed seagrass plots to different levels of nutrient enrichment (dissolved inorganic nitrogen) for 10 months and measured net production. Seagrass response exhibited a threshold pattern when nutrient enrichment exceeded moderate levels: there was an abrupt and large shift from positive to negative net leaf production (from approximately 0.04 leaf production to 0.02 leaf loss per day). Epiphyte load also increased as nutrient enrichment increased, which may have driven the shift in leaf production. Inadvertently crossing such thresholds, as can occur through ineffective management of land‐derived inputs such as wastewater and stormwater runoff along urbanized coasts, may account for the widely observed sudden loss of seagrass meadows. Identification of tipping points may improve not only adaptive‐management monitoring that seeks to avoid threshold effects, but also restoration approaches in systems that have crossed them.     

Using a common commensal bacterium in endangered Takahe as a model to explore pathogen dynamics in isolated wildlife populations

Predicting and preventing outbreaks of infectious disease in endangered wildlife is problematic without an understanding of the biotic and abiotic factors that influence pathogen transmission and the genetic variation of microorganisms within and between these highly modified host communities. We used a common commensal bacterium, Campylobacter spp., in endangered Takahe (Porphyrio hochstetteri) populations to develop a model with which to study pathogen dynamics in isolated wildlife populations connected through ongoing translocations. Takahe are endemic to New Zealand, where their total population is approximately 230 individuals. Takahe were translocated from a single remnant wild population to multiple offshore and mainland reserves. Several fragmented subpopulations are maintained and connected through regular translocations. We tested 118 Takahe from 8 locations for fecal Campylobacter spp. via culture and DNA extraction and used PCR for species assignment. Factors relating to population connectivity and host life history were explored using multivariate analytical methods to determine associations between host variables and bacterial prevalence. The apparent prevalence of Campylobacter spp. in Takahe was 99%, one of the highest reported in avian populations. Variation in prevalence was evident among Campylobacter species identified. C. sp. nova 1 (90%) colonized the majority of Takahe tested. Prevalence of C. jejuni (38%) and C. coli (24%) was different between Takahe subpopulations, and this difference was associated with factors related to population management, captivity, rearing environment, and the presence of agricultural practices in the location in which birds were sampled. Modeling results of Campylobacter spp. in Takahe metapopulations suggest that anthropogenic management of endangered species within altered environments may have unforeseen effects on microbial exposure, carriage, and disease risk. Translocation of wildlife between locations could have unpredictable consequences including the spread of novel microbes between isolated populations.     

Comparison of measured multi-decadal rainfall variability with farmers’ perceptions of and responses to seasonal changes in western Uganda

Regional Environmental Change - Smallholder farmers in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are not only dealing with decreased production from land degradation, but are also impacted heavily by climate...     

Reliance of mobile species on sensitive habitats: a case study of manta rays (Manta alfredi) and lagoons

Quantifying the ecological importance of individual habitats to highly mobile animals is challenging because patterns of habitat reliance for these taxa are complex and difficult to observe. We investigated the importance of lagoons to the manta ray, Manta alfredi, a wide-ranging and vulnerable species in a less-disturbed atoll ecosystem. Lagoons are highly sensitive to anthropogenic disturbance and are known to be ecologically important to a wide variety of mobile species. We used a novel combination of research tools to examine the reliance of M. alfredi on lagoon habitats. Stable isotope analysis was used to assay the recent energetic importance of lagoons to M. alfredi; high-resolution tracking data provided information about how M. alfredi utilised lagoonal habitats over long and short time periods; acoustic cameras logged patterns of animal entrances and departures from lagoons; and photo identification/laser photogrammetry provided some insight into why they may be using this habitat. M. alfredi showed strong evidence of energetic dependence on lagoon resources during the course of the study and spent long periods of residence within lagoons or frequently transited into them from elsewhere. While within lagoons, they demonstrated affinities for particular structural features within this habitat and showed evidence of temporal patterning in habitat utilization. This work sheds light on how and why M. alfredi uses lagoons and raises questions about how this use may be altered in disturbed settings. More generally, these observations contribute to our knowledge of how to assess the ecological importance of particular habitats situated within the broader home range of mobile consumers.     

Quantifying the Impact of Renewable Energy Futures on Cooling Water Use

This article presents an empirically based model, WiCTS ( Wi thdrawal and C onsumption for T hermoelectric S ystems), to estimate regional water withdrawals and consumption implied by any electricity generation portfolio. WiTCS uses water use rates, developed at the substate level, to predict water use by scaling the rates with predicted energy generation. The capability of WiCTS is demonstrated by assessing the impact of renewable electricity generation scenarios on water use in the United States (U.S.) through 2050. The energy generation scenarios are taken from the Renewable Energy Futures Study performed by the U.S. National Renewable Energy Laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy. Results indicate reductions in water use are achieved under these renewable energy scenarios. The analysis further explores the impact of two modifications to the modeling framework. The first modification presumes geothermal and concentrated solar power generation technologies employ water‐intensive cooling systems vs. cooling technology that requires no water. The second modification presumes all water‐intensive cooling technologies use closed cycle cooling (as opposed to once‐through cooling) technologies by 2050. Results based on one of the renewable generation scenarios indicate water use increases by over 20% under the first modification, and water consumption increases by approximately 40% while water withdrawals decrease by over 85% under the second modification.     

Development of Soils and Communities of Plants and Arbuscular Mycorrhizal Fungi on West Virginia Surface Mines

Surface mining followed by reclamation to pasture is a major driver of land use and cover change in Appalachia. Prior research suggests that many aspects of ecosystem recovery are either slow or incomplete. We examined ecosystem structure—including soil physical and chemical properties, arbuscular mycorrhizal fungal (AMF) infectivity and community composition, and plant diversity and community composition—on a chronosequence of pasture-reclaimed surface mines and a non-mined pasture in northern West Virginia. Surface mining and reclamation dramatically altered ecosystem structure. Some aspects of ecosystem structure, including many measures of soil chemistry and infectivity of AMF, returned rapidly to levels found on the non-mined reference site. Other aspects of ecosystem structure, notably soil physical properties and AMF and plant communities, showed incomplete or no recovery over the short-to-medium term. In addition, invasive plants were prevalent on reclaimed mine sites. The results point to the need for investigation on how reclamation practices could minimize establishment of exotic invasive plant species and reduce the long-term impacts of mining on ecosystem structure and function.     

An Assessment of Forest Cover Trends in South and North Korea, From 1980 to 2010

It is generally believed that forest cover in North Korea has undergone a substantial decrease since 1980, while in South Korea, forest cover has remained relatively static during that same period of time. The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Forest Resources Assessments—based on the reported forest inventories from North and South Korea—suggest a major forest cover decrease in North Korea, but only a slight decrease in South Korea during the last 30 years. In this study, we seek to check and validate those assessments by comparing them to independently derived forest cover maps compiled for three time intervals between 1990 and 2010, as well as to provide a spatially explicit view of forest cover change in the Korean Peninsula since the 1990s. We extracted tree cover data for the Korean Peninsula from existing global datasets derived from satellite imagery. Our estimates, while qualitatively supporting the FAO results, show that North Korea has lost a large number of densely forested areas, and thus in this sense has suffered heavier forest loss than the FAO assessment suggests. Given the limited time interval studied in our assessment, the overall forest loss from North Korea during the whole span of time since 1980 may have been even heavier than in our estimate. For South Korea, our results indicate that the forest cover has remained relatively stable at the national level, but that important variability in forest cover evolution exists at the regional level: While the northern and western provinces show an overall decrease in forested areas, large areas in the southeastern part of the country have increased their forest cover.     

Reducing Livestock Effects on Public Lands in the Western United States as the Climate Changes: A Reply to Svejcar et al

Svejcar et al. (Environ Manage, 2014) offered several perspectives regarding Beschta et al. (Environ Manage 51:474–491, 2013)—a publication that addressed the interacting ecological effects of climate change and domestic, wild, and feral ungulates on public lands in the western United States (US)—by largely focusing on three livestock grazing issues: (1) legacy versus current day impacts; (2) grazing as a fire reduction tool; and (3) the complexity of grazing. Regarding these issues, we indicate that (1) legacy effects to western ecosystems were indeed significant and contemporary livestock use on public lands generally maintains or exacerbates many of those effects; (2) livestock grazing has been a major factor affecting fire frequency, fire severity, and ecosystem trajectories in the western US for over a century; and (3) the removal or reduction of grazing impacts in these altered ecosystems is the most effective means of initiating ecological recovery. Svejcar et al. (Environ Manage, 2014) offer no evidence that livestock use is consistent with the timely recovery of grazing-degraded uplands, riparian areas, or stream systems. We thus conclude that public-land ecosystems can best persist or cope with a changing climate by significantly reducing ungulate grazing and related impacts.     

Temperature-associated population diversity in salmon confers benefits to mobile consumers

Habitat heterogeneity can generate intraspecific diversity through local adaptation of populations. While it is becoming increasingly clear that population diversity can increase stability in species abundance, less is known about how population diversity can benefit consumers that can integrate across population diversity in their prey. Here we demonstrate cascading effects of thermal heterogeneity on trout-salmon interactions in streams where rainbow trout rely heavily on the seasonal availability of anadromous salmon eggs. Water temperature in an Alaskan stream varied spatially from 5 degrees C to 17.5 degrees C, and spawning sockeye salmon showed population differentiation associated with this thermal heterogeneity. Individuals that spawned early in cool regions of the 5 km long stream were genetically differentiated from those spawning in warmer regions later in the season. Sockeye salmon spawning generates a pulsed resource subsidy that supports the majority of seasonal growth in stream-dwelling rainbow trout. The spatial and temporal structuring of sockeye salmon spawn timing in our focal stream extended the duration of the pulsed subsidy compared to a thermally homogeneous stream with a single population of salmon. Further, rainbow trout adopted movement strategies that exploited the multiple pulses of egg subsidies in the thermally heterogeneous stream. Fish that moved to track the resource pulse grew at rates about 2.5 times higher than those that remained stationary or trout in the reference stream with a single seasonal pulse of eggs. Our results demonstrate that habitat heterogeneity can have important effects on the population diversity of dominant species, and in turn, influence their value to species that prey upon them. Therefore, habitat homogenization may have farther-reaching ecological effects than previously considered.     

Seasonal timing of first rain storms affects rare plant population dynamics

A major challenge in forecasting the ecological consequences of climate change is understanding the relative importance of changes to mean conditions vs. changes to discrete climatic events, such as storms, frosts, or droughts. Here we show that the first major storm of the growing season strongly influences the population dynamics of three rare and endangered annual plant species in a coastal California (USA) ecosystem. In a field experiment we used moisture barriers and water addition to manipulate the timing and temperature associated with first major rains of the season. The three focal species showed two- to fivefold variation in per capita population growth rates between the different storm treatments, comparable to variation found in a prior experiment imposing eightfold differences in season-long precipitation. Variation in germination was a major demographic driver of how two of three species responded to the first rains. For one of these species, the timing of the storm was the most critical determinant of its germination, while the other showed enhanced germination with colder storm temperatures. The role of temperature was further supported by laboratory trials showing enhanced germination in cooler treatments. Our work suggests that, because of species-specific cues for demographic transitions such as germination, changes to discrete climate events may be as, if not more, important than changes to season-long variables.