What floats your boat? Preference revelation from lotteries over complex goods

We examine a type of lottery used to distribute some publicly held resource access rights. The lottery provides participants with the opportunity to choose among a set of simple gambles over multi-attribute goods. Participant choices result in an endogenous distribution of success rates over gambles that reflects tradeoffs between the relative desirability of the available goods and the probability of winning. When lottery winnings are multi-attribute goods, lottery outcomes provide sufficient information to estimate hedonic prices, marginal utility, and marginal rates of substitution among attributes. We develop a model for characterizing preferences from this information set. We apply our model to Idaho?s Four Rivers Whitewater Recreation Lottery, which allows applicants to apply for one permit among a large set of alternative river/day combinations that provide varying river and weather characteristics. This lottery structure shows promise as a foundation for economic experiments for preference revelation.     

Screening of thyroid gland histology in organohalogen-contaminated glaucous gulls (Larus hyperboreus) from the Norwegian Arctic

The associations between blood organohalogen contaminant (OHC) concentrations and thyroid gland histology were studied in 10 adult female glaucous gulls (Larus hyperboreus) from the Norwegian Arctic (Bjørnøya) during the incubation period. This histological investigation was undertaken as previous glaucous gull studies from the same area reported negative relationships between circulating OHC concentrations and thyroid hormone levels. Organohalogen concentrations have previously been associated with altered blood plasma thyroid hormone concentrations, as a result of parenchymal thyroid gland alterations and perturbation of the hypothalamic-pituitary-thyroid (HPT)-axis. In this study, PCB (range: 186–1027 ng g^?1ww), DDT (77–203 ng g^?1ww) and chlordane (18–65 ng g^?1ww) concentrations dominated the blood plasma OHC profile in incubating female glaucous gulls. High density of small follicles accompanied by follicular epithelial cell proliferations was seen in thyroid glands in seven of 10 gulls. Focal thyroiditis and nodular hyperplasia were found in two birds. No significant differences in plasma OHC concentrations were noted between gulls exhibiting high density of small follicles and cell proliferations and those birds not showing histological changes. Based on these findings, data suggest that the histological changes in thyroid glands of OHC-contaminated female glaucous gulls may be due to natural variance, although an OHC-induced thyroid stimulating hormone (TSH) perturbation resulting in epithelial cell hyperplasia and increased follicular density cannot be ruled out and remains to be verified. Hence, a large-scale histological study is required, in order to elaborate the potential linkage between changes in thyroid gland histology, OHC exposure and regulation of the HPT-axis in the Arctic-breeding glaucous gull.     

Adsorption of cadmium from aqueous solution using Rooibos shoots as adsorbent

The use of Rooibos shoots, a natural adsorbent, for cadmium removal from wastewater is proposed. The effects of initial pH, adsorbent dosage, contact time, and initial concentration were investigated in the batch adsorption mode. The optimum pH was found to be 5.5. Isotherm and kinetic data were modeled; the data fitted best to the Freundlich model, and, kinetically, the adsorption was of pseudo-second order as shown by the high R² value of 0.9928 along with close agreement between the experimental q_e (13.9 mg g^?1) and calculated q_e (14.24 mg g^?1) values. The studied biomass material was found to be effectively used for removal of cadmium from contaminated mine wastewater.     

Use of one-dimensional modelling in estuary management: entrance depth –– model calibration

The Wairoa River, a barrier enclosed estuary situated in Hawke’s Bay, New Zealand was modelled using a one-dimensional hydrodynamic model. Water level data obtained during a flood and a bathymetric survey were available but the entrance cross-section had not been surveyed. This paper describes the calibration of the model to jointly optimise the selection of the Manning coefficient and the depth of the estuary entrance.     

Breaking Bergmann's rule: truncation of Northwest Atlantic marine fish body sizes

A strictly species-centric view of human impacts on ecological communities may conceal important trait changes key to ecosystem functioning and stability. Analyses of body size and community composition data for 326 Northwest Atlantic fish species sampled across > 900000 km2 over three decades revealed a rapid and widespread reduction of body sizes driven by declines within species and changes in relative abundances. The changes were unrelated to species richness but of sufficient magnitude to eliminate biogeographic scale gradients of increasing body size with latitude commonly characterized as Bergmann's rule. These changes have persisted despite reduced potential for intraspecific competition and favorable bottom water temperatures, both of which should lead to increased growth rates. The aggregate body sizes in these Northwest Atlantic fish communities may now represent a mismatch between the environmental variability characteristic of the Northwest Atlantic and the historical body size, life history traits, and productivity of species across this region. We discuss how these changes may jeopardize the potential for recovery of these important temperate/subarctic ecosystems.     

People on the land: changes in global population and croplands during the 20th century

This study reviews the major changes in global distribution of croplands during the 20th century. During the 20th century, the cropland base diminished greatly (from approximately 0.75 ha person-1 in 1900 to approximately 0.35 ha person-1 in 1990). This loss of croplands was not globally uniform: more than half the world's population, living in developing nations, lost nearly two-thirds of their per capita cropland base. The distribution of croplands has become increasingly skewed--in 1990, 80% of the population lived off less than 0.35 ha person-1. While agricultural yields have generally increased, they have barely kept pace with population growth in developing nations. Overall, the global food production system is becoming increasingly vulnerable to regional disruptions because of our increasing reliance on expensive technological options to increase agricultural production, or on global food trade.     

Policy planning under uncertainty: efficient starting populations for simulation-optimization methods applied to municipal solid waste management

Evolutionary simulation-optimization (ESO) techniques can be adapted to model a wide variety of problem types in which system components are stochastic. Grey programming (GP) methods have been previously applied to numerous environmental planning problems containing uncertain information. In this paper, ESO is combined with GP for policy planning to create a hybrid solution approach named GESO. It can be shown that multiple policy alternatives meeting required system criteria, or modelling-to-generate-alternatives (MGA), can be quickly and efficiently created by applying GESO to this case data. The efficacy of GESO is illustrated using a municipal solid waste management case taken from the regional municipality of Hamilton-Wentworth in the Province of Ontario, Canada. The MGA capability of GESO is especially meaningful for large-scale real-world planning problems and the practicality of this procedure can easily be extended from MSW systems to many other planning applications containing significant sources of uncertainty.     

The scope and severity of white-nose syndrome on hibernating bats in North America

Assessing the scope and severity of threats is necessary for evaluating impacts on populations to inform conservation planning. Quantitative threat assessment often requires monitoring programs that provide reliable data over relevant spatial and temporal scales, yet such programs can be difficult to justify until there is an apparent stressor. Leveraging efforts of wildlife management agencies to record winter counts of hibernating bats, we collated data for 5 species from over 200 sites across 27 U.S. states and 2 Canadian provinces from 1995 to 2018 to determine the impact of white-nose syndrome (WNS), a deadly disease of hibernating bats. We estimated declines of winter counts of bat colonies at sites where the invasive fungus that causes WNS (Pseudogymnoascus destructans) had been detected to assess the threat impact of WNS. Three species undergoing species status assessment by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (Myotis septentrionalis, Myotis lucifugus, and Perimyotis subflavus) declined by more than 90%, which warrants classifying the severity of the WNS threat as extreme based on criteria used by NatureServe. The scope of the WNS threat as defined by NatureServe criteria was large (36% of Myotis lucifugus range) to pervasive (79% of Myotis septentrionalis range) for these species. Declines for 2 other species (Myotis sodalis and Eptesicus fuscus) were less severe but still qualified as moderate to serious based on NatureServe criteria. Data-sharing across jurisdictions provided a comprehensive evaluation of scope and severity of the threat of WNS and indicated regional differences that can inform response efforts at international, national, and state or provincial jurisdictions. We assessed the threat impact of an emerging infectious disease by uniting monitoring efforts across jurisdictional boundaries and demonstrated the importance of coordinated monitoring programs, such as the North American Bat Monitoring Program (NABat), for data-driven conservation assessments and planning.