Identifying socioeconomic and biophysical factors driving forest loss in protected areas

Protected areas (PAs) are a commonly used strategy to confront forest conversion and biodiversity loss. Although determining drivers of forest loss is central to conservation success, understanding of them is limited by conventional modeling assumptions. We used random forest regression to evaluate potential drivers of deforestation in PAs in Mexico, while accounting for nonlinear relationships and higher order interactions underlying deforestation processes. Socioeconomic drivers (e.g., road density, human population density) and underlying biophysical conditions (e.g., precipitation, distance to water, elevation, slope) were stronger predictors of forest loss than PA characteristics, such as age, type, and management effectiveness. Within PA characteristics, variables reflecting collaborative and equitable management and PA size were the strongest predictors of forest loss, albeit with less explanatory power than socioeconomic and biophysical variables. In contrast to previously used methods, which typically have been based on the assumption of linear relationships, we found that the associations between most predictors and forest loss are nonlinear. Our results can inform decisions on the allocation of PA resources by strengthening management in PAs with the highest risk of deforestation and help preemptively protect key biodiversity areas that may be vulnerable to deforestation in the future.     

INTERSTATE AND INTERNATIONAL AQUIFERS1

Many important groundwater aquifers cross state and national boundaries. The flow of water in these aquifers is not influenced by the boundaries but may be materially influenced by mans activities on one or both sides of a boundary. Interstate and international problems may develop because of excessive groundwater lowering on one side of a boundary affecting water users on the opposite side of the line. Similarly, intensive groundwater development along a surface stream may influence the amount of surface water that flows across a boundary. A third type of problem may develop when pumping on one side of the boundary induces poor quality water into an aquifer on the other side of the boundary. Several specific interstate and international aquifer problems are briefly described.     

Should Habitat Trading Be Based on Mitigation Ratios Derived from Landscape Indices? A Model-Based Analysis of Compensatory Restoration Options for the Red-Cockaded Woodpecker

Many species of conservation concern are spatially structured and require dispersal to be persistent. For such species, altering the distribution of suitable habitats on the landscape can affect population dynamics in ways that are difficult to predict from simple models. We argue that for such species, individual-based and spatially explicit population models (SEPMs) should be used to determine appropriate levels of off-site restoration to compensate for on-site loss of ecologic resources. Such approaches are necessary when interactions between biologic processes occur at different spatial scales (i.e., local [recruitment] and landscape [migration]). The sites of restoration and habitat loss may be linked to each other, but, more importantly, they may be linked to other resources in the landscape by regional biologic processes, primarily migration. The common management approach for determining appropriate levels of off-site restoration is to derive mitigation ratios based on best professional judgment or pre-existing data. Mitigation ratios assume that the ecologic benefits at the site of restoration are independent of the ecologic costs at the site of habitat loss. Using an SEPM for endangered red-cockaded woodpeckers, we show that the spatial configuration of habitat restoration can simultaneously influence both the rate of recruitment within breeding groups and the rate of migration among groups, implying that simple mitigation ratios may be inadequate.     

Comparison of Stream Invertebrate Response Models for Bioassessment Metrics1

Waite, Ian R., Jonathan G. Kennen, Jason T. May, Larry R. Brown, Thomas F. Cuffney, Kimberly A. Jones, and James L. Orlando, 2012. Comparison of Stream Invertebrate Response Models for Bioassessment Metrics. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 48(3): 570-583. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2011.00632.x Abstract: We aggregated invertebrate data from various sources to assemble data for modeling in two ecoregions in Oregon and one in California. Our goal was to compare the performance of models developed using multiple linear regression (MLR) techniques with models developed using three relatively new techniques: classification and regression trees (CART), random forest (RF), and boosted regression trees (BRT). We used tolerance of taxa based on richness (RICHTOL) and ratio of observed to expected taxa (O/E) as response variables and land use/land cover as explanatory variables. Responses were generally linear; therefore, there was little improvement to the MLR models when compared to models using CART and RF. In general, the four modeling techniques (MLR, CART, RF, and BRT) consistently selected the same primary explanatory variables for each region. However, results from the BRT models showed significant improvement over the MLR models for each region; increases in R² from 0.09 to 0.20. The O/E metric that was derived from models specifically calibrated for Oregon consistently had lower R² values than RICHTOL for the two regions tested. Modeled O/E R² values were between 0.06 and 0.10 lower for each of the four modeling methods applied in the Willamette Valley and were between 0.19 and 0.36 points lower for the Blue Mountains. As a result, BRT models may indeed represent a good alternative to MLR for modeling species distribution relative to environmental variables.     

Renatal diagnosis of mosaic tetrasomy 12p/trisomy 12p by fluorescent in situ hybridization in amniotic fluid cells: A case report of pallister–killian syndrome

A prenatally detected case of a rare mosaic tetrasomy 12p/trisomy 12p is reported, presenting as the well-known accessory isochromosome 12p and a supernumerary single 12p marker in 17/24 and 6/24 clones of cultured amniotic fluid cells, respectively. The chromosomal nature of both marker chromosomes was investigated in cultured amniotic fluid cells by fluorescent in situ hybridization with various probes: the 12-centromeric probes pa12H8 and D12Z3, a whole chromosome 12 paint, and the chromosome 12p-specific paint M28. DNA analysis revealed a maternal origin of the extra 12p material. After counselling, the parents requested termination of pregnancy. Inspection and autopsy of the fetus revealed many of the dysmorphisms and internal structural abnormalities of the Pallister–Killian syndrome.     

Maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein and fetal triploidy

Fetal triploidy is commonly found in early pregnancy. The majority of these pregnancies spontaneously abort in the first trimester. Occasionally, the pregnancy progresses to the second and third trimesters. We reviewed the maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein (MSAFP), amniotic fluid alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), amniotic fluid acetylcholinesterase (ACHE), fetal pathology, and placental pathology in sex second-trimester pregnancies complicated by fetal triploidy. Four of these patients had MSAFP values greater than 7.5 multiples of the median (MoM). Five of six pregnancies had MSAFP values greater than 2.25 MoM. All five of these patients had a partial mole. Four patients had amniotic fluid AFP values greater than 2.0 MoM. Two fetuses had associated neural tube defects. These were the only patients with positive amniotic fluid ACHE. None of the other patients had fetuses with anomalies that are known to be associated with an elevated MSAFP. The elevated MSAFP appeared to be related to the presence of a partial mole. Two of the five cases with an MSAFP greater than 2.25 MoM did not have sonographic evidence of a significant anomaly. Therefore, karyotyping can be of benefit in evaluating patients with elevated MSAFP.     

Carbon sequestration: Do N inputs and elevated atmospheric CO2 alter soil solution chemistry and respiratory C losses?

Soil respiration is a large C flux which is of primary importance in determining C sequestration. Here we ask how it is altered by atmospheric CO₂ concentration and N additions. Swards of Lolium perenne L. were grown in a Eutric cambisol under controlled conditions with and without the addition of 200 kg NO^? ₃ ?N ha^?1, at either 350 ppm or 700 ppm CO₂, for 3 months. Soil respiration and net canopy photosynthesis were both increased by added N and elevated CO₂, but soil respiration increased proportionately less than fixation by photosynthesis. Thus, both elevated CO₂ and N appeared to increase potential C sequestration, although adding N at elevated CO₂ reduced the C sequestered as a proportion of that fixed relative to elevated CO₂ alone. Across all treatments below-ground respiratory C losses were predicted by root biomass, but not by soil solution C and N concentrations. Specific root-dependent respiration was increased by elevated CO₂, such that below-ground respiration per unit biomass and per unit plant N was increased.     

Development of visibility forecasting modeling framework for the Lower Fraser Valley of British Columbia using Canada’s Regional Air Quality Deterministic Prediction System

Visibility degradation, one of the most noticeable indicators of poor air quality, can occur despite relatively low levels of particulate matter when the risk to human health is low. The availability of timely and reliable visibility forecasts can provide a more comprehensive understanding of the anticipated air quality conditions to better inform local jurisdictions and the public. This paper describes the development of a visibility forecasting modeling framework, which leverages the existing air quality and meteorological forecasts from Canada’s operational Regional Air Quality Deterministic Prediction System (RAQDPS) for the Lower Fraser Valley of British Columbia. A baseline model (GM-IMPROVE) was constructed using the revised IMPROVE algorithm based on unprocessed forecasts from the RAQDPS. Three additional prototypes (UMOS-HYB, GM-MLR, GM-RF) were also developed and assessed for forecast performance of up to 48 hr lead time during various air quality and meteorological conditions. Forecast performance was assessed by examining their ability to provide both numerical and categorical forecasts in the form of 1-hr total extinction and Visual Air Quality Ratings (VAQR), respectively. While GM-IMPROVE generally overestimated extinction more than twofold, it had skill in forecasting the relative species contribution to visibility impairment, including ammonium sulfate and ammonium nitrate. Both statistical prototypes, GM-MLR and GM-RF, performed well in forecasting 1-hr extinction during daylight hours, with correlation coefficients (R) ranging from 0.59 to 0.77. UMOS-HYB, a prototype based on postprocessed air quality forecasts without additional statistical modeling, provided reasonable forecasts during most daylight hours. In terms of categorical forecasts, the best prototype was approximately 75 to 87% correct, when forecasting for a condensed three-category VAQR. A case study, focusing on a poor visual air quality yet low Air Quality Health Index episode, illustrated that the statistical prototypes were able to provide timely and skillful visibility forecasts with lead time up to 48 hr.

Implications: This study describes the development of a visibility forecasting modeling framework, which leverages the existing air quality and meteorological forecasts from Canada’s operational Regional Air Quality Deterministic Prediction System. The main applications include tourism and recreation planning, input into air quality management programs, and educational outreach. Visibility forecasts, when supplemented with the existing air quality and health based forecasts, can assist jurisdictions to anticipate the visual air quality impacts as perceived by the public, which can potentially assist in formulating the appropriate air quality bulletins and recommendations.     

Current issues and uncertainties in the measurement and modelling of air-vegetation exchange and within-plant processing of POPs

Air-vegetation exchange of POPs is an important process controlling the entry of POPs into terrestrial food chains, and may also have a significant effect on the global movement of these compounds. Many factors affect the air-vegetation transfer including: the physicochemical properties of the compounds of interest; environmental factors such as temperature, wind speed, humidity and light conditions; and plant characteristics such as functional type, leaf surface area, cuticular structure, and leaf longevity. The purpose of this review is to quantify the effects these differences might have on air/plant exchange of POPs, and to point out the major gaps in the knowledge of this subject that require further research. Uptake mechanisms are complicated, with the role of each factor in controlling partitioning, fate and behaviour process still not fully understood. Consequently, current models of air-vegetation exchange do not incorporate variability in these factors, with the exception of temperature. These models instead rely on using average values for a number of environmental factors (e.g. plant lipid content, surface area), ignoring the large variations in these values. The available models suggest that boundary layer conductance is of key importance in the uptake of POPs, although large uncertainties in the cuticular pathway prevents confirmation of this with any degree of certainty, and experimental data seems to show plant-side resistance to be important. Models are usually based on the assumption that POP uptake occurs through the lipophilic cuticle which covers aerial surfaces of plants. However, some authors have recently attached greater importance to the stomatal route of entry into the leaf for gas phase compounds. There is a need for greater mechanistic understanding of air-plant exchange and the 'scaling' of factors affecting it. The review also suggests a number of key variables that researchers should measure in their experiments to allow comparisons to be made between studies in order to improve our understanding of what causes any differences in measured data between sites.     

Acceptability and digestion of diets fed to larval stages ofHomarus gammarus and the role of dietary conditioning behaviour

Whilst the role of chemoreception in juvenile crustacean feeding behaviour has received considerable attention, the chemosensory responses of larval planktonic crustacean stages have been neglected. The present study investigated the acceptability of processed, microparticulate and microencapsulated diets and the possible role of chemoattractants for larval and juvenile stages ofHomarus gammarus (Linnaeus) and juvenile stages ofPalaemon elegans (Rathke). Larval and juvenile lobster were obtained from MAFF (Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food, Conwy, UK), and juvenileP. elegans were collected from the Menai Straits (Gwynedd, UK) during the summer months of 1985/1986. During the larval stages, food capture results from chance encounter, and the role of low molecular-weight chemoattractants appears to be in the determination of the edible from the inedible. Dietary conditioning behaviour in decapod larvae, which has until now not been investigated, enables the larvae to discriminate more rapidly between particles of different digestibilities. The digestibility and assimilation efficiency displayed on artificial diets in the present study suggest that lobster larvae possess limited enzymatic capabilities, although later stages are more efficient and display longer food-retention time. Growth (0.114 mm d^–1) and survival (80.0%) of lobster larvae fed natural diets were significantly better (F=14.8;P=0.001, andF=54.0,P=0.001, respectively) than of individuals fed artificial diets. Although pre-digested artificial diets (ingredients pre-treated with pancreatin) resulted in higher survival (74 and 63%) compared to microencapsulated diets (37%), there was no significant growth difference between the artificial diets tested.