LAND COVER AS A FRAMEWORK FOR ASSESSING RISK OF WATER POLLUTION1

ABSTRACT: A survey of numerous field studies shows that nitrogen and phosphorous export coefficients are significantly different across forest, agriculture, and urban land‐cover types. We used simulations to estimate the land‐cover composition at which there was a significant risk of nutrient loads representative of watersheds without forest cover. The results suggest that at between 20 percent and 30 percent nonforest cover, there is a 10 percent or greater chance of N or P nutrient loads being equivalent to the median values of predominantly agricultural or urban watersheds. The methods apply to environmental management for assessing the risk to increased nonpoint nutrient pollution. Interpretation of the risk measures are discussed relative to their application for a single watershed and across a region comprised of several watersheds.     

A simple soil organic-matter model for biomass data assimilation in community-level carbon contracts.

Soil carbon (C) sequestration has been proposed as a transitional win-win strategy to help replenish organic-matter content in depleted agricultural soils and counter increases in atmospheric greenhouse gases. Data assimilation and remote sensing can reduce uncertainty in sequestered C mass estimates, but simple soil organic carbon (SOC) models are required to make operational predictions of tradeable amounts over large, heterogenous areas. Our study compared the performance of RothC26.3 and a reduced compartmental model on an 11-year fertilizer trial in subhumid West Africa. Root mean square error (RMSE) differences of 0.05 Mg C/ha between models on total SOC predictions suggest that for contractual purposes, SOC dynamics can be simulated by a two-pool structure with labile and stable components. Faster (seasonal) and slower (semicentennial and beyond) rates can be approximated by constants as instantaneous and infinite decay. In these systems, simulations indicate that cereal residue incorporation holds most potential for mitigation of transient C loss associated with recent land conversion to agriculture.     

Whole-lake dissolved inorganic 13C additions reveal seasonal shifts in zooplankton diet

Sustained whole-lake additions of 13C-enriched dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC), intended to increase experimentally the delta13C of DIC in the epilimnion of a small lake with high dissolved organic carbon (DOC), were made during three seasonal periods (spring, summer, and autumn). Coupled with carbon and nitrogen stable isotope analysis of zooplankton and several of their putative food sources, these additions were used to investigate seasonal changes in the relative contributions of different food sources to zooplankton diet in the lake. Four main potential food sources were considered: phytoplankton, heterotrophic bacteria (HB), methanotrophic bacteria (MOB), and green sulfur bacteria (GSB). Because the number of potential food sources exceeded the number of isotopes analyzed, a computer program (IsoSource) was used to estimate the range of possible contributions of the various food sources. During all three periods the added inorganic 13C quickly increased the epilimnetic DIC delta13C by between 18 per thousand and 21 per thousand above the initial value of approximately -21 per thousand. This 13C enrichment of DIC was rapidly transmitted to the particulate organic matter (POM), which included photosynthetic phytoplankton. In spring and summer, delta13C of both adult and juvenile Daphnia increased by approximately 10 per thousand, indicating that Daphnia utilized autochthonous carbon. However, this 13C labeling of Daphnia was not so obvious during the autumn period, when their delta13C generally decreased. According to the IsoSource model outputs based on both delta13C and delta15N values, Daphnia utilized all four potential food source types during spring, summer, and autumn, but in different proportions. The possible contribution of phytoplankton to Daphnia diet was substantial (25-71%) in all seasons. The possible contributions of the bacterial food sources were more variable. The possible contribution of GSB was minor (0-20%) at all times and negligible in autumn. The possible contribution of HB was higher but very variable. Methanotrophic bacteria always made a significant contribution to Daphnia diet and were likely the single most important food source in autumn. Since both HB and MOB in this high-DOC lake probably depend largely on allochthonous organic carbon, our results highlight the seasonal variability in the potential importance of ecosystem subsidies in lake food webs.     

Diversity-invasibility across an experimental disturbance gradient in Appalachian Forests

Research examining the relationship between community diversity and invasions by nonnative species has raised new questions about the theory and management of biological invasions. Ecological theory predicts, and small-scale experiments confirm, lower levels of nonnative species invasion into species-rich compared to species-poor communities, but observational studies across a wider range of scales often report positive relationships between native and nonnative species richness. This paradox has been attributed to the scale dependency of diversity-invasibility relationships and to differences between experimental and observational studies. Disturbance is widely recognized as an important factor determining invasibility of communities, but few studies have investigated the relative and interactive roles of diversity and disturbance on nonnative species invasion. Here, we report how the relationship between native and nonnative plant species richness responded to an experimentally applied disturbance gradient (from no disturbance up to clearcut) in oak-dominated forests. We consider whether results are consistent with various explanations of diversity-invasibility relationships including biotic resistance, resource availability, and the potential effects of scale (1 m2 to 2 ha). We found no correlation between native and nonnative species richness before disturbance except at the largest spatial scale, but a positive relationship after disturbance across scales and levels of disturbance. Post-disturbance richness of both native and nonnative species was positively correlated with disturbance intensity and with variability of residual basal area of trees. These results suggest that more nonnative plants may invade species-rich communities compared to species-poor communities following disturbance.     

A 700-year paleoecological record of boreal ecosystem responses to climatic variation from Alaska

Recent observations and model simulations have highlighted the sensitivity of the forest-tundra ecotone to climatic forcing. In contrast, paleoecological studies have not provided evidence of tree-line fluctuations in response to Holocene climatic changes in Alaska, suggesting that the forest-tundra boundary in certain areas may be relatively stable at multicentennial to millennial time scales. We conducted a multiproxy study of sediment cores from an Alaskan lake near the altitudinal limits of key boreal-forest species. Paleoecological data were compared with independent climatic reconstructions to assess ecosystem responses of the forest tundra boundary to Little Ice Age (LIA) climatic fluctuations. Pollen, diatom, charcoal, macrofossil, and magnetic analyses provide the first continuous record of vegetation fire-climate interactions at decadal to centennial time scales during the past 700 years from southern Alaska. Boreal-forest diebacks characterized by declines of Picea mariana, P. glauca, and tree Betula occurred during the LIA (AD 1500-1800), whereas shrubs (Alnus viridis, Betula glandulosa/nana) and herbaceous taxa (Epilobium, Aconitum) expanded. Marked increases in charcoal abundance and changes in magnetic properties suggest increases in fire importance and soil erosion during the same period. In addition, the conspicuous reduction or disappearance of certain aquatic (e.g., Isoetes, Nuphar, Pediastrum) and wetland (Sphagnum) plants and major shifts in diatom assemblages suggest pronounced lake-level fluctuations and rapid ecosystem reorganization in response to LIA climatic deterioration. Our results imply that temperature shifts of 1-2 degrees C, when accompanied by major changes in moisture balance, can greatly alter high-altitudinal terrestrial, wetland, and aquatic ecosystems, including conversion between boreal-forest tree line and tundra. The climatic and ecosystem variations in our study area appear to be coherent with changes in solar irradiance, suggesting that changes in solar activity contributed to the environmental instability of the past 700 years.     

Coral bleaching, bleaching-induced mortality, and the adaptive significance of the bleaching response

Coral bleaching events are often associated with higher levels of coral mortality but when this occurs in the chronology of individual bleaching events is poorly documented. Knowing when mortality occurs is important for understanding molecular mechanisms and the putative adaptive significance of the response (the Adaptive Bleaching Hypothesis). In a detailed study of a coral bleaching event on the Great Barrier Reef, involving weekly and twice weekly repetitive observations of >200 individually marked corals over an 18 month period (∼16,000 observations), it is shown that bleaching in Acropora latistella, A. subulata and Turbinaria mesenterina was an acute, rapid response, occurring within days of a peak in seawater temperatures exceeding previously described thresholds. Subsurface light levels, measured over the duration of the event, were not anomalous. Full bleaching (i.e. whole colonies turning bone-white) and partial bleaching (white patches) was observed in the Acropora spp. whilst the T. mesenterina colonies typically paled to a light brown colour. Algal densities in bleached corals were 10–30% of those of normally pigmented corals (∼2.5 × 10⁶ algae per cm²), and in this instance bleaching was clearly a sudden, isolated, stress event and not an extreme low-point in the seasonal fluctuation of the density of symbiotic algae. Bleached corals were associated with high levels of partial and whole-colony mortality, but mortality was exclusively limited to the two Acropora spp. Importantly, most of this mortality was recorded in surveys conducted 1 and 2 weeks after bleaching was first observed, and for A. latistella as little as 1 week after bleaching was first observed. This suggests that in this particular bleaching event, for the Acropora species, that bleaching and mortality were intimately linked: this in turn suggests it was a pathological phenomenon. The study highlights a problem in the adaptive bleaching hypothesis, whereby significant levels of mortality can occur in a bleaching event before any chance for subsequent recombination of the host-symbiont unit. It is argued that in order to further evaluate the significance of bleaching as a potentially adaptive mechanism, bleaching-induced and bleaching-related mortality have to be fully considered. It is necessary to incorporate the cost (in terms of mortality) of a bleaching event, the recurring cost of reverting to the original, mortal, stress–prone combination after the event, and the higher cost associated with forming a maladaptive combination.     

Spatial selection and inheritance: applying evolutionary concepts to population dynamics in heterogeneous space

Organisms in highly suitable sites generally produce more offspring, and offspring can inherit this suitability by not dispersing far. This combination of spatial selection and spatial inheritance acts to bias the distribution of organisms toward suitable sites and thereby increase mean fitness (i.e., per capita population increase). Thus, population growth rates in heterogeneous space change over time by a process conceptually analogous to evolution by natural selection, opening avenues for theoretical cross-pollination between evolutionary biology and ecology. We operationally define spatial inheritance and spatial selective differential and then combine these two factors in a modification of the breeder's equation, derived from simple models of population growth in heterogeneous space. The modified breeder's equation yields a conservative criterion for persistence in hostile environments estimable from field measurements. We apply this framework for understanding gypsy moth population persistence amidst abundant predators and find that the predictions of the modified breeder's equation match initial changes in population growth rate in independent simulation output. The analogy between spatial dynamics and natural selection conceptually links ecology and evolution, provides a spatially implicit framework for modeling spatial population dynamics, and represents an important null model for studying habitat selection.     

Genetic identity determines risk of post-settlement mortality of a marine fish

Longitudinal sampling of four cohorts of Neopomacentrus filamentosus, a common tropical damselfish from Dampier Archipelago, Western Australia, revealed the evolution of size structure after settlement. Light traps collected premetamorphic individuals from the water column ("settlers") to establish a baseline for each cohort. Subsequently, divers collected benthic juveniles ("recruits") at 1-3-month intervals to determine the relative impacts of post-settlement mortality during the first three months. Growth trajectories for individual fish were back-calculated from otolith records and compared with nonlinear mixed-effects models. Size-selective mortality was detected in all cohorts with the loss of smaller, slower growing individuals. Three months after settlement, recruits showed significantly faster growth as juveniles, faster growth as larvae, and larger sizes as hatchlings. The timing and intensity of post-settlement selection differed among cohorts and was correlated with density at settlement. The cohort with the greatest initial abundance experienced the strongest selective mortality, with most of this mortality occurring between one and two months after settlement when juveniles began foraging at higher positions in the water column. Significant genetic structure was found between settlers and three-month-old recruits in this cohort as a result of natural selection that changed the frequency of mtDNA haplotypes measured at the control region. The extent of this genetic difference was enlarged or reduced by artificially manipulating the intensity of size-based selection, thus establishing a link between phenotype and haplotype. Sequence variation in the control region of the mitochondrial genome has been linked to mitochondrial efficiency and weight gain in other studies, which provides a plausible explanation for the patterns observed here.     

The perverse fisheries consequences of mosquito net malaria prophylaxis in East Africa

Malaria is a serious global health issue, with around 200 million cases per year. As such, great effort has been put into the mass distribution of bed nets as a means of prophylaxis within Africa. Distributed mosquito nets are intended to be used for malaria protection, yet increasing evidence suggests that fishing is a primary use for these nets, providing fresh concerns for already stressed coastal ecosystems. While research documents the scale of mosquito net fisheries globally, no quantitative analysis of their landings exists. The effects of these fisheries on the wider ecosystem assemblages have not previously been examined. In this study, we present the first detailed analysis of the sustainability of these fisheries by examining the diversity, age class, trophic structure and magnitude of biomass removal. Dragnet landings, one of two gear types in which mosquito nets can be utilised, were recorded across ten sites in northern Mozambique where the use of Mosquito nets for fishing is common. Our results indicate a substantial removal of juveniles from coastal seagrass meadows, many of which are commercially important in the region or play important ecological roles. We conclude that the use of mosquito nets for fishing may contribute to food insecurity, greater poverty and the loss of ecosystem functioning.

     

Mechanisms and impacts of an incentive-based conservation program with evidence from a randomized control trial

Conservation science needs more high-quality impact evaluations, especially ones that explore mechanisms of success or failure. Randomized control trials (RCTs) provide particularly robust evidence of the effectiveness of interventions (although they have been criticized as reductionist and unable to provide insights into mechanisms), but there have been few such experiments investigating conservation at the landscape scale. We explored the impact of Watershared, an incentive-based conservation program in the Bolivian Andes, with one of the few RCTs of landscape-scale conservation in existence. There is strong interest in such incentive-based conservation approaches as some argue they can avoid negative social impacts sometimes associated with protected areas. We focused on social and environmental outcomes based on responses from a household survey in 129 communities randomly allocated to control or treatment (conducted both at the baseline in 2010 and repeated in 2015–2016). We controlled for incomplete program uptake by combining standard RCT analysis with matching methods and investigated mechanisms by exploring intermediate and ultimate outcomes according to the underlying theory of change. Previous analyses, focused on single biophysical outcomes, showed that over its first 5 years Watershared did not slow deforestation or improve water quality at the landscape scale. We found that Watershared influenced some outcomes measured using the survey, but the effects were complex, and some were unexpected. We thus demonstrated how RCTs can provide insights into the pathways of impact, as well as whether an intervention has impact. This paper, one of the first registered reports in conservation science, demonstrates how preregistration can help make complex research designs more transparent, avoid cherry picking, and reduce publication bias.