Cluster detection using Bayes factors from overparameterized cluster models

In this paper, we consider the use of a partition model to estimate regional disease rates and to detect spatial clusters. Formal inference regarding the number of partitions (or clusters) can be obtained with a reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm. As an alternative, we consider the ability of models with a fixed, but overly large, number of partitions to estimate regional disease rates and to provide informal inferences about the number and locations of clusters using local Bayes factors. We illustrate and compare these two approaches using data on leukemia incidence in upstate New York and data on breast cancer incidence in Wisconsin.     

Ecological Function Zoning for Environmental Planning at Different Levels

Environmental planning at different levels has been called for by environmental departments in China during last years to integrate environment consideration to economic development. Based on the accomplished environmental planning practice in Xiamen China, the paper suggests a general environmental planning process with ecological function zoning as its key steps, at the same time an effective method for ecological function zoning was formulated. The case studies of Dongfu suburban town environmental planning and Xiamen eco-city conceptual planning indicate that scientifically sound results of ecological function zoning can contribute to improving not only the adaptability and acceptability of environmental planning, also the environmental management and the decision-making. The experience shows that the ecological function zoning methods should be applied according to the principles of adaptive management, resource-based and community-based, so that it can integrate science into decision-making process, avoiding both narrow-minded viewpoints of planners and natural resource use conflicts among variety of stakeholders. Problems to be resolved in the future are also pointed out in the ending part.     

Cd在无瓣海桑模拟湿地系统中的分布迁移及净化效应

在温室中建立红树林植物无瓣海桑模拟湿地系统,分别用正常、5倍和10倍浓度3种人工配制的生活污水定时定量对模拟系统污灌4个月,研究重金属Cd的分布、迁移以及湿地系统对Cd污染的净化效应。结果表明,污水中的Cd主要存留在土壤子系统中(约90%),只有很少部分迁移到植物体和凋落物中;无瓣海桑各器官中Cd含量在根部最高;模拟系统对污水中Cd的净化效果显著,在植物-土壤-水系统中,正常、5倍和10倍浓度组的净化率分别为96.04%、85.19%和92.24%,在无植物系统中,对应组分别为81.18%、85.46%和80.96%。     

Evaluation of marine outfall with three-dimensional hydrodynamic and water quality modeling

Numerical models are often used to evaluate the potential impact of human alternation of natural water bodies and to help the design of the alternation to mitigate its impacts. In the past decade, three-dimensional hydrodynamic and reactive transport modeling has matured from a research subject to a practical analysis technology. This paper presents a practical study in which a three-dimensional hydrodynamic and water quality model [hydrodynamic eutrophication model (HEM-3D)] was applied to determine the optimal location for treated wastewater discharged from marine outfall system in the Keelung harbor and the adjacent coastal sea. First, model validation was conducted with respect to surface elevation, current, and water quality variables measured in the Keelung harbor station and its coastal sea. The overall performance of the model was in qualitative agreement with the available field data. The model was then used to evaluate several scenarios of the locations from marine outfall system. Based on model simulation results, a location at the northeast of Ho-Ping Island was recommended for adoption because the environmental impact is smaller than any other alternative.

Assessing land use impacts on flood processes in complex terrain by using GIS and modeling approach

A distributed hydrologic modeling and GIS approach is applied for the assessment of land use impact in the Steinsel sub-basin, Alzette, Grand-Duchy of Luxembourg. The assessment focuses on the runoff contributions from different land use classes and the potential impact of land use changes on runoff generation. The results show that the direct runoff from urban areas is dominant for a flood event compared with runoff from other land use areas in this catchment, and tends to increase for small floods and for the dry season floods, whereas the interflow from forested, pasture and agricultural field areas contributes to the recession flow. Significant variations in flood volume, peak discharge, time to the peak, etc., are found from the model simulation based on the three hypothetical land use change scenarios.     

基于SWAT模型的大沽河流域排污权交易率体系不确定性估算

排污权交易是一种成本低廉、效果显著的水质管理机制,但由于水体污染物本身的理化特性及河流自净作用,交易的公平性面临巨大挑战,严重影响排污权交易机制的效率及水质目标的实现,而交易率是解决这一挑战的有效途径。基于SWAT模型开展大沽河流域水文和水质模拟,获得了入海口NH₃-N(氨氮)负荷对不同污染源的响应;分析了交易率的空间变异性,进行了不同污染源之间的NH₃-N排污权交易率体系不确定性估算。研究结果可为流域排污权交易制度的建立和完善奠定基础,为流域管理与生态恢复提供重要支撑。     

Elements of fishing community resilience to climate change in the coastal zone of Bangladesh

Resilience has been conceptualized in various ways by anthropologists, ecologists, systems scientists and engineers; the boundaries of resilience are subjective and context dependent. Consequently, choosing the standards and metrics for assessing resilience remains key challenges for policy makers. In this study, using multicriteria evaluation of 40 basic criteria of human, physical, financial, natural and social assets, we have identified several elements, such as experienced fishermen, natural abundance of hilsa (Tenualosa ilisha), ability to assert decision on fish selling, nets and boats ownership, social harmony and capacity of buying food as essential livelihood assets for the fishermen at Hatiya Island, Bangladesh. These assets may enhance the relative resilience of the fishing community of the island to climate change by as much as 20–40%. The results of this study will improve our understanding of the elements that lead to resilience at the community level.     

Trophic ecology of Grey-headed albatrosses from Marion Island, Southern Ocean: insights from stomach contents and diet tracers

During chick-rearing, albatrosses can alternate between long foraging trips that provide the main source of food for the adults and short foraging trips that they use to feed their young. This flexibility in foraging behaviour can lead to differences in diet composition between adults and chicks and implies that they may be vulnerable in different ways to food shortages. The trophic ecology of the Grey-headed albatross Thalassarche chrysostoma was investigated at the sub-Antarctic Prince Edward Islands during the chick-rearing period in April 2006 using a combination of approaches. Diets of adults and chicks were assessed using stable isotope ratios and fatty acid (FA) profiles of blood and/or stomach oils, in addition to stomach contents analysis. Fish from the family Macrouridae and cephalopods (particularly the onychoteuthid Kondakovia longimana) were the primary prey, whereas crustaceans (krill Euphausia superba) represented a smaller proportion of the stomach contents. Stomach oil FA profiles contained more monounsaturated FA than the profiles of plasma, which were richer in saturated FA and arachidonic acid (20:4n-6). There was also a distinct separation of adults from chicks, with higher levels of monounsaturates in chick plasma, and higher saturated FA levels (particularly 16:0) in the adult plasma. Stable carbon isotope ratios of whole blood were similar in adults and chicks, whereas stable nitrogen isotope ratios showed significant enrichment by >1‰ in chicks. The combined FA, stable isotopes and stomach contents analyses suggest clear differences in diet quality between adults and chicks, with chicks feeding at a higher trophic position through feeding more on highly nutritious fish and adults keeping much of the less nutritious zooplankton for themselves.     

基于析因设计的多种重金属对发光菌联合毒性研究

文章采用析因设计的方法,研究沉积物水浸提液掺杂的多种重金属Cu、Cd、Zn、Pb和Ni对发光菌的联合毒性。通过对试验结果进行方差分析和多元线性回归,建立了重金属浓度和发光菌发光抑制率的关系模型:T=97.983Cu+41.111Cd-27.297Zn+129.869Pb+16.715Ni-5 803.639Cu*Cd+2 270.182Cd*Zn-6 411.870Cd*Pb-675.052Cd*Ni-3 108.544Pb*Ni+15 9552.434Cd*Pb*Ni+274 718.434Zn*Pb*Ni。模型分析结果表明:Zn对联合毒性产生负的影响,Cu、Cd、Pb、Ni对联合毒性具有正的贡献;Cd*Zn二元交互作用和Cd*Pb*Ni、Zn*Pb*Ni三元交互作用表现为协同作用,Cu*Cd、Cd*Pb、Cd*Ni、Pb*Ni二元交互作用表现为拮抗作用,而重金属四元和五元交互作用对联合毒性的贡献不显著。上述重金属联合毒性的作用可为沉积物中重金属复合污染控制提供参考。     

The integrated biomarker response revisited: optimization to avoid misuse

The growing need to evaluate the quality of aquatic ecosystems led to the development of numerous monitoring tools. Among them, the development of biomarker-based procedures, that combine precocity and relevance, is recommended. However, multi-biomarker approaches are often hard to interpret, and produce results that are not easy to integrate in the environmental policies framework. Integrative index have been developed, and one of the most used is the integrated biomarker response (IBR). However, an analysis of available literature demonstrated that the IBR suffers from a frequent misuse and a bias in its calculation. Then, we propose here a new calculation method based on both a more simple formula and a permutation procedure. Together, these improvements should rightly avoid the misuse and bias that were recorded. Additionally, a case study illustrates how the new procedure enabled to perform a reliable classification of site along a pollution gradient based on biomarker responses used in the IBR calculations.