Identification of structural breaks in the forest product markets: how sensitive are to changes in the Nordic region?

Forests play a fundamental role in the global carbon cycle and can be managed to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions and conserve or sequester carbon. Global policy and environmental changes can affect regional consumption of forest products, as well as inter-regional trade of forest goods and services. This study analyzes global and regional change impacts on the production, consumption and trade of forest products in two Nordic countries, Finland and Sweden. Annual data on removal and trade (1964–2012) for roundwood and sawnwood is used to identify structural breaks based on Chow tests. According to the analysis, the time period is divided into two periods: t1 (1964–1980) and t2 (1981–2012). In the first period, breaks occurred in 1975 and 1976 in the Finnish model and no break is found in the Swedish model. In the second period, we identify breaks in 1991 and 1992 for the Finnish model and in 2004, 2005 and 2006 for the Swedish model. Although our findings have broad empirical support, we do not identify any specific incident as a direct cause of the changes in the consumption and trade patterns of the two types of wood in these countries. The models and analysis presented here can serve as methodological tools for policymakers to better understand the effects of structural changes in the production of forest goods and services in the Nordic region and globally.     

Power matters in closing the phenotyping gap

Much of our understanding of physiology and metabolism is derived from investigating mouse mutants and transgenic mice, and open-access platforms for standardized mouse phenotyping such as the German Mouse Clinic (GMC) are currently viewed as one powerful tool for identifying novel gene-function relationships. Phenotyping or phenotypic screening involves the comparison of wild-type control mice with their mutant or transgenic littermates. In our study, we explored the extent to which standardized phenotyping will succeed in detecting biologically relevant phenotypic differences in mice generated and provided by different collaborators. We analyzed quantitative metabolic data (body mass, energy intake, and energy metabolized) collected at the GMC under the current workflow, and used them for statistical power considerations. Our results demonstrate that there is substantial variability in these parameters among lines of wild-type C57BL/6 (B6) mice from different sources. Given this variable background noise in mice that serve as controls, subtle phenotypes in mutant or transgenic littermates may be overlooked. Furthermore, a phenotype observed in one cohort of a mutant line may not be reproducible (to the same extent) in mice coming from a different environment or supplier. In the light of these constraints, we encourage researchers to incorporate information on intrastrain variability into future study planning, or to perform advanced hierarchical analyses. Both will ultimately improve the detectability of novel phenotypes by phenotypic screening. Carola W. Meyer and Ralf Elvert contributed equally to this work.     

Diseases and motor vehicle fatalities in Finland in 2001 and 2002

OBJECTIVES: The possible connection between diseases among drivers and traffic accidents was examined for traffic safety purposes. METHODS: We studied medical conditions of drivers and passengers in all motor vehicle crashes with fatalities in Finland in 2001 and 2002 by using reports of road accident investigation teams, including autopsy reports. We analyzed a total of 542 crashes with 640 fatalities. Findings were also compared with available epidemiological data in Finland. RESULTS: An insignificant difference in the number of reported diseases was present between the different parties involved in crashes. However, among killed key drivers, so-called A-parties, psychiatric diseases, especially alcoholism, depression, and unspecific mental disorders, were diagnosed more often than in the groups of other drivers or passengers. In addition, A-parties were reported to more frequently suffer from cerebral arteriosclerosis and arterial hypertension. CONCLUSIONS: Drivers' diseases can be a risk factor for traffic accidents. Fitness to drive should therefore be considered in medical practice, particularly in patients with alcoholism and other psychiatric disorders.     

Adaptive-filtering of trisomy 21: risk of Down syndrome depends on family size and age of previous child

The neonatal incidence rate of Down syndrome (DS) is well-known to accelerate strongly with maternal age. This non-linearity renders mere accumulation of defects at recombination during prolonged first meiotic prophase implausible as an explanation for DS rate increase with maternal age, but might be anticipated from chromosomal drive (CD) for trisomy 21. Alternatively, as there is selection against genetically disadvantaged embryos, the screening system that eliminates embryos with trisomy 21 might decay with maternal age. In this paper, we provide the first evidence for relaxed filtering stringency (RFS) to represent an adaptive maternal response that could explain accelerating DS rates with maternal age. Using historical data, we show that the proportion of aberrant live births decrease with increased family size in older mothers, that inter-birth intervals are longer before affected neonates than before normal ones, and that primiparae exhibit elevated levels of DS incidence at higher age. These findings are predicted by adaptive RFS but cannot be explained by the currently available alternative non-adaptive hypotheses, including CD. The identification of the relaxation control mechanism and therapeutic restoration of a stringent screen may have considerable medical implications.     

The impact of agroforestry combined with water harvesting on soil carbon and nitrogen stocks in central Chile evaluated using the ICBM/N model

Soil organic carbon (SOC) and total nitrogen (N) stocks in an agroforestry system with water harvesting were analysed in a field experiment and the results compared with those of other crop management systems in the Mediterranean zone of central Chile. Agroforestry with water harvesting showed higher positive effects on N stocks, mainly in the upper soil layer, than the other crop management systems. However, soil analysis revealed a lack of differences between treatments, a fact that might be related mainly to the short study time (12 years) and the high spatial variability in these soil properties at the experimental site. In addition, the Introductory Carbon Balance Model that simulates N processes (ICBM/N) was evaluated for simulating trends in SOC and N stocks in the field experiment. Soil data collected between 1996 and 2008 in the field experiment and primarily literature data sets were used to test ICBM/N and its performance was evaluated by considering uncertainty in model inputs using Generalised Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) methodology. The GLUE estimates (5% and 95%) and measured SOC and N stocks were in satisfactory agreement. The observed SOC and N stocks were bracketed by the uncertainty bands in 70% and 80% of the simulations, respectively. Sensitivity analysis showed the model to be most sensitive to C parameters, such as the humification coefficient (h). The results of this study show that ICBM/N can be an effective tool for estimating SOC and N stocks from agroforestry combined with water harvesting systems in the Mediterranean zone of central Chile over the medium term. However, they also indicate that additional data sets are needed to redefine the parameter distributions in the model and thus to predict trends in SOC and N stocks in the future.     

Carbon footprint of food - approaches from national input-output statistics and a LCA of a food portion

The aim of the study, on which this paper is based, was to provide guidance to consumers to make environmentally responsible choices in their food consumption, to assist food supply chain stakeholders to identify the key areas for environmental improvements, and to provide policy makers with a tool for monitoring the potential impacts on climate change resulting from developments within the food sector. At the macro level, the EIO-LCA model was developed specifically for the Finnish food chain; at the micro level, LCAs were performed on 30 lunch portions. The contribution of the Finnish food chain to climate change was 14%, which comprised 40% CO₂ emissions, 25% CH₄ emissions, and 34% N₂O emissions. The share of impacts from domestic agricultural processes was the highest, at 69%. The impact of a single lunch portion ranged between 0.65 and 3.80 kg of equivalent CO₂. According to the EIO-LCA model, the average impact was 7.7 kg CO₂ eq/person daily. The consumer phase accounted for between 8 and 47% of the climate change impacts for homemade portions. In ready-to-eat portions industry and retail phases were emphasized, representing 25-38% of climate change impacts. We present an approach to steer the Finnish food sector onto an environmentally sustainable path; practical tools for consumers and farmers will especially need to be developed further.     

Monitoring aromatic hydrocarbon biodegradation by functional marker genes

The development of biological treatment technologies for contaminated environments requires tools for obtaining direct information about the biodegradation of specific contaminants. The potential of functional gene array analysis to monitor changes in the amount of functional marker genes as indicators of contaminant biodegradation was investigated. A prototype functional gene array was developed for targeting key functions in the biodegradation of naphthalene, toluene and xylenes. Internal standard probe based normalization was introduced to facilitate comparison across multiple samples. Coupled with one-colour hybridization, the signal normalization improved the consistency among replicate hybridizations resulting in better discrimination for the differences in the amount of target DNA. During the naphthalene biodegradation in a PAH-contaminated soil slurry microcosm, the normalized hybridization signals in naphthalene catabolic gene probes were in good agreement with the amount of naphthalene-degradation genes and the production of 14CO2. Gene arrays provide efficient means for monitoring of contaminant biodegradation in the environment.     

Differences in the growth response of three bryophyte species to nitrogen

The effect of nitrogen on biomass production, shoot elongation and relative density of the mosses Pleurozium schreberi, Hylocomium splendens and Dicranum polysetum was studied in a chamber experiment. Monocultures were exposed to 10 N levels ranging from 0.02 to 7.35 g N m⁻² during a 90-day period. All the growth responses were unimodal, but the species showed differences in the shape parameters of the curves. Hylocomium and Pleurozium achieved optimum biomass production at a lower N level than Dicranum. Pleurozium had the highest biomass production per tissue N concentration. Tolerance to N was the widest in Dicranum, whereas Hylocomium had the narrowest tolerance. Dicranum retained N less efficiently from precipitation than the other two species, which explained its deviating response. All species translocated some N from parent to new shoots. The results emphasize that the individual responses of bryophytes to N should be known when species are used as bioindicators.     

Long-term survey of heavy-metal pollution, biofilm contamination and diatom community structure in the Riou Mort watershed, South-West France

In a metal-polluted stream in the Riou Mort watershed in SW France, periphytic biofilm was analyzed for diatom cell densities and taxonomic composition, dry weight and metal bio-accumulation (cadmium and zinc). Periphytic diatom communities were affected by the metal but displayed induced tolerance, seen through structural impact (dominance of small, adnate species) as well as morphological abnormalities particularly in the genera Ulnaria and Fragilaria. Species assemblages were characterized by taxa known to occur in metal-polluted environments, and shifts in the community structure expressed seasonal patterns: high numbers of Eolimna minima, Nitzschia palea and Pinnularia parvulissima were recorded in Summer and Autumn, whereas the species Surirella brebissonii, Achnanthidium minutissimum, Navicula lanceolata and Surirella angusta were dominant in Winter and Spring. Commonly used indices such as the Shannon diversity index and Specific Pollution Sensitivity Index reflected the level of pollution and suggest seasonal periodicity, the lowest diversities being observed in Summer.