Modelling spatial patterns of correlations between concentrations of heavy metals in mosses and atmospheric deposition in 2010 across Europe

Background

This paper aims to investigate the correlations between the concentrations of nine heavy metals in moss and atmospheric deposition within ecological land classes covering Europe. Additionally, it is examined to what extent the statistical relations are affected by the land use around the moss sampling sites. Based on moss data collected in 2010/2011 throughout Europe and data on total atmospheric deposition modelled by two chemical transport models (EMEP MSC-E, LOTOS-EUROS), correlation coefficients between concentrations of heavy metals in moss and in modelled atmospheric deposition were specified for spatial subsamples defined by ecological land classes of Europe (ELCE) as a spatial reference system. Linear discriminant analysis (LDA) and logistic regression (LR) were then used to separate moss sampling sites regarding their contribution to the strength of correlation considering the areal percentage of urban, agricultural and forestry land use around the sampling location. After verification LDA models by LR, LDA models were used to transform spatial information on the land use to maps of potential correlation levels, applicable for future network planning in the European Moss Survey.

Results

Correlations between concentrations of heavy metals in moss and in modelled atmospheric deposition were found to be specific for elements and ELCE units. Land use around the sampling sites mainly influences the correlation level. Small radiuses around the sampling sites examined (5 km) are more relevant for Cd, Cu, Ni, and Zn, while the areal percentage of urban and agricultural land use within large radiuses (75–100 km) is more relevant for As, Cr, Hg, Pb, and V. Most valid LDA models pattern with error rates of <?40% were found for As, Cr, Cu, Hg, Pb, and V. Land use-dependent predictions of spatial patterns split up Europe into investigation areas revealing potentially high (=?above-average) or low (=?below-average) correlation coefficients.

Conclusions

LDA is an eligible method identifying and ranking boundary conditions of correlations between atmospheric deposition and respective concentrations of heavy metals in moss and related mapping considering the influence of the land use around moss sampling sites.

     

Benchmark Criteria: A Tool for Selecting Appropriate Models in the Field of Water Management

A milestone in the field of European water protection policy is the European Union’s Water Framework Directive (WFD), which came into force in December 2000 and which integrates the management of European waters in many ways. In this study, we start by focusing on management issues connected to the implementation of the WFD and pose a question: “what type of models would be the most suitable for use in the context of the WFD?” With this question in mind, we aim to establish a set of operational and functional selection criteria for (computer) models whose application is intended to support decision-making related to a particular water management issue. These so-called “benchmark criteria” should help water managers and other model users in choosing appropriate models, e.g., for the WFD implementation purposes. We first describe models and their use in general and then propose an approach for setting the benchmark criteria for models, basing it on the concept of uncertainty management, while keeping firmly in mind the important role of citizens and citizen organizations in water management. The suggested benchmark criteria are in the form of 14 questions through which each model can be evaluated. Finally, the process for testing and refining the benchmark criteria is highlighted.     

Body mass dependence of glycogen stores in the anoxia-tolerant crucian carp (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Carassius carassius</Emphasis> L.)

Glycogen is a vital energy substrate for anaerobic organisms, and the size of glycogen stores can be a limiting factor for anoxia tolerance of animals. To this end, glycogen stores in 12 different tissues of the crucian carp (Carassius carassius L.), an anoxia-tolerant fish species, were examined. Glycogen content of different tissues was 2–10 times higher in winter (0.68–18.20% of tissue wet weight) than in summer (0.12–4.23%). In scale, bone and brain glycogen stores were strongly dependent on body mass (range between 0.6 and 785 g), small fish having significantly more glycogen than large fish (p < 0.05). In fin and skin, size dependence was evident in winter, but not in summer, while in other tissues (ventricle, atrium, intestine, liver, muscle, and spleen), no size dependence was found. The liver was much bigger in small than large fish (p < 0.001), and there was a prominent enlargement of the liver in winter irrespective of fish size. As a consequence, the whole body glycogen reserves, measured as a sum of glycogen from different tissues, varied from 6.1% of the body mass in the 1-g fish to 2.0% in the 800-g fish. Since anaerobic metabolic rate scales down with body size, the whole body glycogen reserves could provide energy for approximately 79 and 88 days of anoxia in small and large fish, respectively. There was, however, a drastic difference in tissue distribution of glycogen between large and small fish: in the small fish, the liver was the major glycogen store (68% of the stores), while in the large fish, the white myotomal muscle was the principal deposit of glycogen (57%). Since muscle glycogen is considered to be unavailable for blood glucose regulation, its usefulness in anoxia tolerance of the large crucian carp might be limited, although not excluded. Therefore, mobilization of muscle glycogen under anoxia needs to be rigorously tested.     

Assessing the effects of domestic and international energy scenarios and emission reduction strategies on acidification in Finland

An integrated model system was developed and used to assess the effects of alternative energy production scenarios and reduction policies on acidification of lakes and forest soils in Finland. The analysis covered different energy scenarios and resulting emissions of sulfur oxides and nitrogen oxides in Finland, as well as ammonia emissions with various control requirements. In addition, emission reduction scenarios of varied ambition levels in the bordering areas of Finland and in other parts of Europe were included in the analysis. The impacts of the different scenarios were quantified with exceedances of critical loads for acidification and with the total areas where the critical loads are exceeded. The possibilities for reducing the areas with critical load exceedances with national or bilateral measures were investigated. The differences in areas at risk, if depositions from domestic and nearby sources are estimated with a regional model and point-source databases or with a continental scale model and coarser-scale emission data, were analyzed. The reasons for the differences and the implications for national-level assessment are discussed.     

Impact of the Mekong River flow alteration on the Tonle Sap flood pulse

Rapid development in the upper reaches of the Mekong River, in the form of construction of large hydropower dams and reservoirs, large irrigation schemes, and rapid urban development, is putting water resources under stress. Recent studies have concluded that these developments will lead to flow alterations in the Mekong River. These flow alterations would threaten the sensitive ecosystems downstream, particularly Tonle Sap River, Tonle Sap Lake, its floodplain, and its gallery forest and protected areas, by changing the flood-pulse system of the lake. This article estimates the changes in parameters of the Tonle Sap flood pulse due to the aforementioned flow alterations. The impacts on the flooded area and loss of gallery forest and protected areas were analyzed using geographic information system-based methods. Relatively small rises in the dry-season lake water level would permanently inundate disproportionately large areas of floodplain, rendering it inaccessible to floodplain vegetation and eroding the productivity basis of the ecosystem. It is highly important to maintain the natural hydrological pattern of the Mekong River, particularly the dry-season water levels, to preserve Tonle Sap Lake's ecosystem productivity.     

云南省生态资产与生态系统生产总值核算体系研究

生态系统作为重要的生态资产,为人类提供生态产品和服务,是人类生存和社会经济可持续发展的基础;生态系统生产总值（GEP）是生态资产提供的生态产品与服务价值总和,是生态资产的重要组成部分,也是生态资产对人类福祉的主要贡献。论文以云南省为例,分析了生态资产和GEP的内涵、关联与核算体系,评价了云南省2010年生态资产状况及其为受益者提供生态产品和服务价值的总和。评价结果显示：云南省2010年生态资产状况总体良好,林地、灌丛和草地生态系统的质量水平属于良等级;农田生态系统的质量水平差;生物多样性质量水平优。云南省2010年GEP总量为29 869.51亿元,其中,直接产品价值为4 132.69亿元,间接服务价值为25 736.81亿元。2010年GEP是当年该省国内生产总值（GDP）的4.13倍。研究结果表明,生态资产与GEP的核算,可以定量反映生态系统状况及其对区域社会经济发展的支撑作用,并为评估区域生态系统保护成效及建立生态系统可持续管理与绩效考核机制提供科学依据。     

For the sake of the lake: multi-signification and improvisation in the practices of two lake restoration projects in Finland

In many countries over the last decades, state initiatives have emerged to promote and support public participation in policy-making. Despite the emphasis on participation and deliberation, there are groups that remain outside the participatory proceedings. We follow through two case studies from Finland on how active citizen groups became excluded in the policy processes but decided to act nevertheless. Conceptually, the article tells two stories about multi-signification and improvisation in nature conservation processes from the citizen participation point of view. Using practice-oriented policy analysis, we explore the actors' conflicting interpretations of acting for “the sake of the lake”. We argue that in these kinds of complex policy processes, improvisation should be given more space.     

Mitigating Human Effects on European Biodiversity through Traditional Animal Husbandry

Abstract: Livestock grazing (without modern fertilizers), mowing, and other traditional methods of animal husbandry are used in Europe for managing human-made habitats such as seminatural grasslands. From a review of essential literature, I hypothesize that traditional animal husbandry partially compensates for the loss of natural processes that have been suppressed by humans. There is indirect evidence that livestock grazing and mowing have made possible the continued existence of many species threatened by the human overkill of megaherbivores and other large herbivores. Many species that were dependent on natural fires and floods may have benefited from grazing and mowing, which also may be effective tools for mitigating the negative effects of eutrophication. As partial surrogates, traditional grazing and mowing have obscured the importance of natural disturbances to European biodiversity. Thus, the end of traditional animal husbandry, together with the suppression of natural disturbances, may cause even more adverse effects to biodiversity than is generally recognized.     

Predicting the decomposition of Scots pine, Norway spruce, and birch stems in Finland.

Models were developed for predicting the decomposition of dead wood for the main tree species in Finland, based on data collected from long-term thinning experiments in southern and central Finland. The decomposition rates were strongly related to the number of years after tree death. In contrast to previous studies, which have used the first-order exponential model, we found that the decomposition rate was not constant. Therefore, the Gompertz and Chapman-Richard's functions were fitted to the data. The slow initial decomposition period was mainly due to the fact that most dead trees remained standing as snags after their death. The initial period was followed by a period of rapid decomposition and, finally, by a period of moderately slow decomposition. Birch stems decomposed more rapidly than Scots pine and Norway spruce stems. Decomposition rates of Norway spruce stems were somewhat lower than those of Scots pine. Because the carbon concentration of decaying boles was relatively stable (about 50%) the rate of carbon loss follows that of mass loss. Models were also developed for the probability that a dead tree remains standing as a snag. During the first years after death, the probability was high. Thereafter, it decreased rapidly, the decrease being faster for birch stems than for Scots pine and Norway spruce stems. Almost all stems had fallen down within 40 years after their death. In Scots pine and Norway spruce, most snags remained hard and belonged to decay class 1. In birch, a higher proportion of snags belonged to the more advanced decay classes. The models provide a framework for predicting dead wood dynamics in managed as well as dense unthinned stands. The models can be incorporated into forest management planning systems, thereby facilitating estimates of carbon dynamics.