Making spatial development scenario for south of Bushehr province,Iran, based on strategic foresight

In recent years, the science of foresight has been entered into planning activities by urban and regional planners and this science has impacted on planning activities. This study discusses spatial development in the south of Bushehr province using the foresight approach. The general aim of this research is to compile scenarios for the development of the mentioned study area which comprises the southern part of Bushehr province including four counties of Dayyer, Jam, Kangan and Asaluyeh. The main reason for selecting this region is their direct impressibility by major changes in the country’s oil and gas industry. This research has extremely made use of the Delphi and cross-impact analysis methods to develop foresight scenarios. Using the Delphi method, 30 initial factors were identified in the economic, political-security, linkages, science and technology, manufacturing, natural, social, infrastructural and residential issues and then the cross-impact matrix was used to investigate the impact of factors on each other. In the next step, the ranking of direct and indirect factors was determined by Micmac software and on this basis, the final refining in the selection of drivers was done. In the final stage, axes of future scenarios were presented and then the future scenarios were drawn. Results of this research indicate that two main drivers namely Iran’s international relations and energy resources are the main axes of scenarios. These two drivers have more uncertainty and higher importance than other factors and the results in four scenarios showing the possibility of each situation’s occurrence.     

Effects of meteorology on ground-level ozone (GLO) concentrations and identifying the hot spots having significantly higher GLO concentration in a semi-urban area

The present study aims to analyse the influences of five meteorological parameters (temperature, wind speed, barometric pressure, rainfall, and solar radiations) on ground-level ozone (GLO) concentrations over the region of Ranchi Municipal Corporation (Jharkhand, India). The diurnal variation of GLO concentration and the meteorological parameters were analysed in each month to understand the associations. The results indicated that the correlation coefficients of GLO concentration with SR, AT, and DPT are found to be positive in each month and also statistically significant. But, the association between WS and GLO concentration was not uniform between the study days. Furthermore, the study also demonstrates an approach for identifying the hot spots that are having the higher level of GLO concentration. The hot spot maps were produced for each month to understand the shifting of the locations of hot spot locations. The results reveal that the hot spot locations are changes frequently in each case. Since the hot spot analysis was conducted with limited data, the presented hot spots are indicative and dependent on the meteorological conditions of the specific period and cannot be considered as a robust epidemiological study.     

The impact of ambient ozone on mountain spruce forests in the Czech Republic as indicated by malondialdehyde

Malondialdehyde (MDA), a product of lipid peroxidation and biomarker of oxidative stress, is measured over the long term in spruce Picea abies needles under real conditions in three Czech mountain border areas. The trends presented collate the MDA content in spruce needles with ambient ozone, temperature and precipitation as casual, and defoliation as a subsequent factor for the period 1994-2006. We have found the overall decreasing trends in MDA and defoliation. The highest MDA and defoliation are recorded in the Jizerske, the lowest in the Krusne hory Mts. Out of the examined variables the MDA is predicted best by mean temperature in vegetation season, median of O₃ concentrations and AOT40; these three variables account for 34% of MDA1 and 36% of MDA2 variability. Our hypothesis that higher ambient O₃ exposure results in higher MDA contents in P. abies needles under real conditions has not been approved.     

WRF-Chem simulation of East Asian air quality: Sensitivity to temporal and vertical emissions distributions

This study develops fine temporal (seasonal, day-of-week, diurnal) and vertical allocations of anthropogenic emissions for the TRACE-P inventory and evaluates their impacts on the East Asian air quality prediction using WRF-Chem simulations in July 2001 at 30-km grid spacing against available surface measurements from EANET and NEMCC. For NO₂ and SO₂, the diurnal and vertical redistributions of emissions play essential roles, while the day-of-week variation is less important. When all incorporated, WRF-Chem best simulates observations of surface NO₂ and SO₂ concentrations, while using the default emissions produces the worst result. The sensitivity is especially large over major cities and industrial areas, where surface NO₂ and SO₂ concentrations are reduced by respectively 3–7 and 6–12 ppbv when using the scaled emissions. The incorporation of all the three redistributions of emissions simulates surface O₃ concentrations higher by 4–8 ppbv at night and 2–4 ppbv in daytime over broad areas of northern, eastern and central China. To this sensitivity, the diurnal redistribution contributes more than the other two.     

Health and environmental costs of pesticide use in vegetable farming in Nepal

There is a growing concern of pesticide risks to human health, natural environment and ecosystems. Many previous economic valuations have accounted health aspects or environmental components, but rarely combined; thus, overall risk assessment is partially distorted. The study, conducted close to the capital of Nepal, addressed the health effects of pesticides on small-scale farmers and evaluated the monetary risks of pesticide use on human health and environmental resources. We also aim to establish the relationships among valuation methods. The paper adopts cost of illness, defensive expenditure and contingent valuation willingness to pay approach. The study concluded that the methods used for valuing pesticide risks to human and environmental health are theoretically consistent. The exposed individuals are likely to bear significant economic costs of exposures depending on geographical location, pesticide use magnitudes and frequency. Individuals are willing to pay between 53 and 79% more than the existing pesticide price to protect their health and environment. The integrated pest management training is less likely to reduce health costs of pesticide exposure, although it leads to higher investment in safety measures.     

Is the degrowth debate relevant to China?

In industrialized countries, the idea of degrowth has emerged as a response to environmental, social, and economic crises. Realizing environmental limits to and failures of more than half a century of continual economic growth in terms of social progress and environmental sustainability, the degrowth paradigm calls for a downscaling of consumption and production for social equity and ecological sustainability. The call for economic degrowth is generally considered to be delimited to rich countries, where reduced consumption can save “ecological space” enabling people in poor countries to enjoy the benefits of economic growth. China, as one of the economically most expanding countries in the world, has dramatically improved its living standards, particularly along the Eastern coast, over the latest 30 years. However, China is absent from the international debates on growth. This article discusses the implications of the Western degrowth debates for China. Given the distinctive features of China’s development, the paper aims to enrich the degrowth debates, which have hitherto been dominated by Western perspectives. Based upon reflections on social, environmental, and moral dimensions of economic growth, the paper argues that limited natural resources may not continuously support universal affluence at the current level of the rich countries, a level that China is likely to reach within a few decades. Priority for growth in China should therefore be given to the poor regions of the country, and future growth should be beneficial to social and environmental development.     

The Inhibition of Photochemical Smog

Additional inhibitors for the conversion of NO to NO₂ in C3H6—NO—0₂ irradiated mixtures have been tested at 25°C. These mixtures initially contained 16 mTorr C₃H₆, 8 mTorr NO, 0.012 mTorr NO₂, additive, and enough O₂ to bring the total pressure to 100 Torr. The NO₂ pressure was monitored photometrically. In the absence of additive, the NO₂ pressure first increases with irradiation time reaching a maximum conversion at about 15 minutes. As the irradiation time increases beyond 15 min, the NO₂ pressure drops. Before adding the inhibitors, runs were done with 10 Torr of CO added, and in these runs the conversion was speeded so that the maximum in NO₂ pressure occurred at 10 min. This enhancement in conversion rate is considered to be diagnostic for the presence of HO radicals. Next 10-min irradiations were done with various amounts of hexafluorobenzene (C₆F₆), nitrobenzene (C₆H₅NO₂), or naphtha lene (C₁₀H₈) added. The NO₂ pressure was reduced to one-half its value in the absence of inhibitor with 270 mTorr C₆F₆’, 220 mTorr C₆H₅N0₂, or 4 mTorr C₁₀Hg. The C₁₀H₈ is a very efficient inhibitor, but additions of up to 1 8.5 mTorr C₁₀H₈ did not reduce the N0₂ pressure to zero. Studies of the percent conversion of NO to NO₂ vs. irradiation time were done with either 4.2 mTorr C₁₀H₈ or 40 mTorr 2,6-di-ferf-butyl-4-methylphenol (Ph) added. In the former case the peak conversion was delayed from 15 to 22 min, while in the latter case no delay occurred. However, with the Ph added, there appeared to be some reduction in the maximum value of percent conversion.     

The Inhibition of Photochemical Smog I. Inhibition by Phenol,Benzaldehyde, and Aniline

In urban atmospheres hydrocarbons promote the conversion of NO to NO₂ under the influence of sunlight, ultimately giving rise to photochemical smog. The conversion results from a long chain process with HO radicals as the chain carrier. If this chain could be interrupted by suitable radical traps, the formation of photochemical smog would be inhibited. In this paper we report the results of studies using phenol, benzaldehyde, and aniline as inhibitors. Mixtures containing 16 mTorr C₃H₆, 8 mTorr NO, ～85 Torr 0₂, and the addi tives were irradiated at 25°C. The NO₂ pressure was monitored photometrically. In the absence of additive, the NO2 pressure first increases with irradiation time reaching a maximum conversion corresponding to 70% of the NO at 1 2 minutes. As the radiation time is lengthened, the NO₂ pressure drops. With the additive present, the formation of NO₂ is delayed. The time to reach the maximum percent conversion of NO to N0₂ becomes 20, 22, 31, and 40 minutes respectively, for 13 mTorr C₆H₅OH, 2 mTorr C₆H₅CHO, 8 mTorr C₆H₅CHO, and 4.1 mTorr C₆H₅NH₂ added. The problems and possibilities of adding inhibitors to the atmosphere to control air pollution are discussed.