Where the wild things are: predicting hotspots of seabird aggregations in the California Current System

Marine protected areas (MPAs) provide an important tool for conservation of marine ecosystems. To be most effective, these areas should be strategically located in a manner that supports ecosystem function. To inform marine spatial planning and support strategic establishment of MPAs within the California Current System, we identified areas predicted to support multispecies aggregations of seabirds ("hotspots"). We developed habitat-association models for 16 species using information from at-sea observations collected over an 11-year period (1997-2008), bathymetric data, and remotely sensed oceanographic data for an area from north of Vancouver Island, Canada, to the USA/Mexico border and seaward 600 km from the coast. This approach enabled us to predict distribution and abundance of seabirds even in areas of few or no surveys. We developed single-species predictive models using a machine-learning algorithm: bagged decision trees. Single-species predictions were then combined to identify potential hotspots of seabird aggregation, using three criteria: (1) overall abundance among species, (2) importance of specific areas ("core areas") to individual species, and (3) predicted persistence of hotspots across years. Model predictions were applied to the entire California Current for four seasons (represented by February, May, July, and October) in each of 11 years. Overall, bathymetric variables were often important predictive variables, whereas oceanographic variables derived from remotely sensed data were generally less important. Predicted hotspots often aligned with currently protected areas (e.g., National Marine Sanctuaries), but we also identified potential hotspots in Northern California/Southern Oregon (from Cape Mendocino to Heceta Bank), Southern California (adjacent to the Channel Islands), and adjacent to Vancouver Island, British Columbia, that are not currently included in protected areas. Prioritization and identification of multispecies hotspots will depend on which group of species is of highest management priority. Modeling hotspots at a broad spatial scale can contribute to MPA site selection, particularly if complemented by fine-scale information for focal areas.     

Modeling post-fledging survival of Lark Buntings in response to ecological and biological factors

We evaluated the influences of several ecological, biological, and methodological factors on post-fledging survival of a shortgrass prairie bird, the Lark Bunting (Calamospiza melanocorys). We estimated daily post-fledging survival (n = 206, 82 broods) using radiotelemetry and color bands to track fledglings. Daily survival probabilities were best explained by drought intensity, time in season (quadratic trend), ages < or = 3 d post-fledging, and rank given drought intensity. Drought intensity had a strong negative effect on survival. Rank was an important predictor of fledgling survival only during the severe drought of 2002 when the smallest fledglings had lower survival. Recently fledged young (ages < or = 3 d post-fledging) undergoing the transition from nest to surrounding habitat experienced markedly lower survival, demonstrating the vulnerable nature of this time period. Survival was greater in mid and late season than early season, corresponding to our assumptions of food availability. Neither mark type nor sex of attending parent influenced survival. The model-averaged product of the 22-d survival calculated using mean rank and median value of time in season was 0.360 +/- 0.08 in 2001 and 0.276 +/- 0.08 in 2002. Survival estimates that account for age, condition of young, ecological conditions, and other factors are important for parameterization of realistic population models. Biologists using population growth models to elucidate mechanisms of population declines should attempt to estimate species-specific of post-fledging survival rather than use generalized estimates.     

Sub-chronic exposure to fluoxetine in juvenile oysters (<Emphasis Type=Italic>Crassostrea gigas</Emphasis>): uptake and biological effects

The bioconcentration potential of fluoxetine (FLX) and its biological effects were investigated in juvenile Pacific oyster exposed for 28 days to environmentally relevant concentrations of FLX (1 ng L^?1, 100 ng L^?1 and up to 10 μg L^?1). FLX bioaccumulated in oyster flesh resulting in 28-day bioconcentration factors greater than 2,000 and 10,000 by referring to wet and dry weights, respectively. Nevertheless, FLX did not induce oyster mortality, delayed gametogenesis, or lead to adverse histopathological alterations. At the two highest concentrations, despite non-optimal trophic conditions, FLX stimulated shell growth but only in a transient manner, suggesting a role of serotonin in the regulation of feeding and metabolism in bivalves. Those high concentrations seemed to drive bell-shaped responses of catalase and glutathione S-transferase activities throughout the exposure period, which may indicate the activation of antioxidant enzyme synthesis and then an enhanced catabolic rate or direct inhibition of those enzymes. However, no clear oxidative stress was detected because no strong differences in thiobarbituric acid-reactive substance (TBARS) content (i.e. lipid peroxidation) were observed between oyster groups, suggesting that cellular defence mechanisms were effective. These results demonstrate the importance of considering additional biomarkers of oxidative stress to obtain a comprehensive overview of the FLX-induced changes in marine bivalves exposed under realistic conditions. Considering the battery of biomarkers used, FLX appears to induce little or no effects on oyster physiology even at a concentration of 10 μg L^?1. These results do not confirm the lowest observed effect concentration (LOEC) values reported by some authors in other mollusc species.     

Remediation of Persistent Organic Pollutants Using a Novel Two-Phase Soil Washing Biosorption Process

A two-phase soil washing biosorption process was developed for the remediation of p,p-DDT-contaminated soil. The process involved desorption of contaminants from soil using dilute primary alcohols (40% 1-propanol) followed by contaminant removal from cosolvent solutions using fungal biosorption. Bench scale remediation studies were preformed to simulate ex situ (recycling experiment) or in situ (soil column study) treatment strategies. Both systems were effective at cleaning the soil to below Australian regulatory p,p-DDT levels. After 50–80 hours of soil washing, over 93% of p,p-DDT was removed from the soil(990 mg kg^-1 to <65 mg kg^-1) using either of these methods.p,p-DDT was removed from the cosolvent phase by sorption onto the fungal biomass. This resulted in only low levels of p,p-DDT remaining in the cosolvent solution(<1.5 mg l^-1). The application of both treatment strategies resulted in the rapid clean up of p,p-DDT-contaminated soil and the potential to recycle cosolvent solutions. The ability to recycle cosolvent solutions provides a mechanism for cost reductions of the remediation strategy.     

Energy efficiency and conservation for individual Americans

Americans make up only 4% of the world population, yet currently consume 25% of the world’s fossil fuels. The U.S. imports 63% of its oil and it is predicted that by 2020 the U.S. will be importing 95% of its oil resources. Over the past century, ample and affordable supplies of fossil fuels have powered the growth and prosperity of the economies of the US and other countries. Within this century, world oil supplies will decline while demand is projected to continue to increase, suggesting that we will have to transition to different fuels or become much more energy efficient or both. Looking ahead to the near decades, estimates are that consumers will have to reduce their energy use by at least 50%. This reduction will be necessary in large part due the decline in the availability of conventional oil and gas, but also because the U.S. population will continue to grow in number. Although government action is important, individuals too often discount their ability to make significant contributions to solving such major problems. This investigation identifies how informed and concerned individuals can collectively conserve fossil energy. Readers should send their comments on this paper to: BhaskarNath@aol.com within 3 months of publication of this issue. An erratum to this article can be found at     

A novel participatory and remote-sensing-based approach to mapping annual land use change on forest frontiers in Laos,Myanmar, and Madagascar

Tropical forests are under pressure from both commercial and smallholder agriculture. Forest frontiers are seeing dynamic land use changes that frequently lead to land system regime shifts, posing challenges for the sustainability of entire local social-ecological systems. Monitoring highly dynamic land use change and detecting land system regime shifts is methodologically challenging due to trade-offs between spatial and temporal data resolution. We propose an innovative approach that combines analysis of very-high-resolution satellite imagery with participatory mapping based on workshops and field walks. Applying it in Laos, Myanmar, and Madagascar, we were able to collect annual land use information over several decades. Unlike conventional land use change mapping approaches, which assess only few points in time, our approach provides information at a temporal resolution that enables detection of gradual and abrupt land system regime shifts.     

Changing Human Landscapes Under a Changing Climate: Considerations for Climate Assessments

Climate change is a fundamental aspect of the Anthropocene. Climate assessments are frequently undertaken to evaluate climate change impacts, vulnerability, and adaptive capacity. Assessments are complex endeavors with numerous challenges. Five aspects of a climate assessment that can be particularly challenging are highlighted: choice of assessment strategy, incorporation of spatial linkages and interactions, the constraints of climate observations, interpretation of a climate projection ensemble, uncertainty associated with weather/climate dependency models, and consideration of landscape–climate influences. In addition, a climate assessment strategy that incorporates both traditional “top-down” and “bottom-up” methods is proposed for assessments of adaptation options at the local/regional scale. Uncertainties associated with climate observations and projections and with weather/climate dependency (i.e., response) models are incorporated into the assessment through the “top-down” component, and stakeholder knowledge and experience are included through the “bottom-up” component. Considerable further research is required to improve assessment strategies and the usefulness and usability of assessment findings. In particular, new methods are needed which better incorporate spatial linkages and interactions, yet maintain the fine grain detail needed for decision making at the local and regional scales. Also, new methods are needed which go beyond sensitivity analyses of the relative contribution of land use and land cover changes on local/regional climate to more explicitly consider landscape–climate interactions in the context of uncertain future climates. Assessment teams must clearly communicate the choices made when designing an assessment and recognize the implications of these choices on the interpretation and application of the assessment findings.     

Quantifying uncertainty in LCA-modelling of waste management systems

Uncertainty analysis in LCA studies has been subject to major progress over the last years. In the context of waste management, various methods have been implemented but a systematic method for uncertainty analysis of waste-LCA studies is lacking. The objective of this paper is (1) to present the sources of uncertainty specifically inherent to waste-LCA studies, (2) to select and apply several methods for uncertainty analysis and (3) to develop a general framework for quantitative uncertainty assessment of LCA of waste management systems. The suggested method is a sequence of four steps combining the selected methods: (Step 1) a sensitivity analysis evaluating the sensitivities of the results with respect to the input uncertainties, (Step 2) an uncertainty propagation providing appropriate tools for representing uncertainties and calculating the overall uncertainty of the model results, (Step 3) an uncertainty contribution analysis quantifying the contribution of each parameter uncertainty to the final uncertainty and (Step 4) as a new approach, a combined sensitivity analysis providing a visualisation of the shift in the ranking of different options due to variations of selected key parameters. This tiered approach optimises the resources available to LCA practitioners by only propagating the most influential uncertainties.     

How to foster agroecological innovations? A comparison of participatory design methods

Facing contemporary environmental crisis implies fostering agroecological innovations that take into account local ecological regulations and rely on multiple stakeholders' innovation capacities. This paper draws on two fields of literature that remain unconnected so far: participatory approaches and design sciences. It proposes an analysis grid to support a reflexive analysis of cases of implementation of three participatory design methods: ComMod (Companion Modelling for concerted management of natural resources), Forage Rummy (simulation-based board game for designing farming systems) and KCP (collective design workshops to foster innovation). This analysis highlights key features of the methods in view of agroecological innovation challenges, focusing on knowledge management and organisation for exploration.     

Remediation of metal polluted mine soil with compost: co-composting versus incorporation

Trace element contamination of post-industrial sites represents a major environmental problem and sustainable management options for remediating them are required. This study compared two strategies for immobilizing trace elements (Cu, Pb, Zn, and As) in mine spoil: (1) co-composting contaminated soil with organic wastes and (2) conventional incorporation of mature compost into contaminated soil. Sequential chemical extraction of the soil was performed to determine temporal changes in trace element fractionation and bioavailability during composting and plant growth. We show that mine spoil can be co-composted successfully and this action causes significant shifts in metal availability. However, co-composting did not lead to significant differences in metal partitioning in soil or in plant metal uptake compared with simply mixing mine spoil with mature compost. Both treatments promoted plant growth and reduced metal accumulation in plants. We conclude that co-composting provides little additional benefit for remediating trace-element-polluted soil compared with incorporation of compost.