Aggregated Versus Individual Land-Use Models: Modeling Spatial Autocorrelation to Increase Predictive Accuracy

The objective of this paper is to compare the predictive accuracy of individual and aggregated econometric models of land-use choices. We argue that modeling spatial autocorrelation is a comparative advantage of aggregated models due to the smaller number of observation and the linearity of the outcome. The question is whether modeling spatial autocorrelation in aggregated models is able to provide better predictions than individual ones. We consider a complete partition of space with four land-use classes: arable, pasture, forest, and urban. We estimate and compare the predictive accuracies of individual models at the plot level (514,074 observations) and of aggregated models at a regular 12 × 12 km grid level (3,767 observations). Our results show that modeling spatial autocorrelation allows to obtain more accurate predictions at the aggregated level when the appropriate predictors are used.     

甲苯二异氰酸酯(TDI)致癌性的综合评估

甲苯二异氰酸酯(TDI)被数家机构分类为可能的人类致癌物,其主要依据为动物实验发现对啮齿动物经灌胃暴露TDI后肿瘤发生率升高。基于研究结果的可靠性以及一致性,综合评估了现有研究数据是否支持这一分类。结果显示现有的流行病学数据不足以有力证明TDI为人类致癌物。动物实验研究表明,吸入接触TDI并不导致肿瘤发生。经灌胃暴露后观察到的肿瘤很可能是由于TDI转化为已知的啮齿动物致癌物甲苯二胺(TDA)所致。在TDI吸入暴露的体内实验中,当由TDI转化生成的TDA不能达到具有显著生物学效应的浓度时,TDI对啮齿动物或人类都没有遗传毒性。由于哺乳动物在生理性接触条件下TDI不能转变成TDA,所以对人类而言,TDI接触与致癌效应之间无直接的显著因果关系。因此虽然在如灌胃等非生理暴露的条件下,TDI可能的人类致癌物的分类是正确的,但本文对其致癌研究数据的合理评估和正确理解有助于将产品监管力度集中于与职业暴露更相关的有害健康效应上。     

A model-based approach to determine the long-term effects of multiple interacting stressors on coral reefs

The interaction between multiple stressors on Caribbean coral reefs, namely, fishing effort and hurricane impacts, is a key element in the future sustainability of reefs. We develop an analytic model of coral-algal interactions and explicitly consider grazing by herbivorous reef fish. Further, we consider changes in structural complexity, or rugosity, in addition to the direct impacts of hurricanes, which are implemented as stochastic jump processes. The model simulations consider various levels of fishing effort corresponding to' several hurricane frequencies and impact levels dependent on geographic location. We focus on relatively short time scales so we do not explicitly include changes in ocean temperature, chemistry, or sea level rise. The general features of our approach would, however, apply to these other stressors and to the management of other systems in the face of multiple stressors. It is determined that the appropriate management policy, either local reef restoration or fisheries management, greatly depends on hurricane frequency and impact level. For sufficiently low hurricane impact and macroalgal growth rate, our results indicate that regions with lower-frequency hurricanes require stricter fishing regulations, whereas management in regions with higher-frequency hurricanes might be less concerned with enhancing grazing and instead consider whether local-scale restorative activities to increase vertical structure are cost-effective.     

Population regulation by enemies of the grass Brachypodium sylvaticum: demography in native and invaded ranges

The enemy-release hypothesis (ERH) states that species become more successful in their introduced range than in their native range because they leave behind natural enemies in their native range and are thus "released" from enemy pressures in their introduced range. The ERH is popularly cited to explain the invasive properties of many species and is the underpinning of biological control. We tested the prediction that plant populations are more strongly regulated by natural enemies (herbivores and pathogens) in their native range than in their introduced range with enemy-removal experiments using pesticides. These experiments were replicated at multiple sites in both the native and invaded ranges of the grass Brachypodium sylvaticum. In support of the ERH, enemies consistently regulated populations in the native range. There were more tillers and more seeds produced in treated vs. untreated plots in the native range, and few seedlings survived in the native range. Contrary to the ERH, total measured leaf damage was similar in both ranges, though the enemies that caused it differed. There was more damage by generalist mollusks and pathogens in the native range, and more damage by generalist insect herbivores in the invaded range. Demographic analysis showed that population growth rates were lower in the native range than in the invaded range, and that sexually produced seedlings constituted a smaller fraction of the total in the native range. Our removal experiment showed that enemies regulate plant populations in their native range and suggest that generalist enemies, not just specialists, are important for population regulation.     

Lethal and sublethal effects of the natural and healthy spinosad-based formulation Tracer™ on tadpoles of two neotropical species

Environmental Science and Pollution Research - This paper presents the first acute toxicity data of the natural insecticide spinosad in amphibians. The sensitivity of two neotropical sympatric...     

The potential of willow for remediation of heavy metal polluted calcareous urban soils

Growth performance and heavy metal uptake by willow (Salix viminalis) from strongly and moderately polluted calcareous soils were investigated in field and growth chamber trials to assess the suitability of willow for phytoremediation. Field uptakes were 2-10 times higher than growth chamber uptakes. Despite high concentrations of cadmium (≥80 mg/kg) and zinc (≥3000 mg/kg) in leaves of willow grown on strongly polluted soil with up to 18 mg Cd/kg, 1400 mg Cu/kg, 500 mg Pb/kg and 3300 mg Zn/kg, it is unsuited on strongly polluted soils because of poor growth. However, willow proved promising on moderately polluted soils (2.5 mg Cd/kg and 400 mg Zn/kg), where it extracted 0.13% of total Cd and 0.29% of the total Zn per year probably representing the most mobile fraction. Cu and Pb are strongly fixed in calcareous soils.     

Maternal nest defense reduces egg cannibalism by conspecific females in the maritime earwig <Emphasis Type="Italic">Anisolabis maritima</Emphasis>

Nest predation imposes a major cost to reproductive females, who should therefore take measures to avoid encounters with predators. However, when predators are conspecifics, avoidance can be more difficult and may be a consequence of social or aggregative behaviors. In this study, we measured the consequences of conspecific egg cannibalism on hatching success in the maritime earwig (Anisolabis maritima), which occasionally form aggregations. We hypothesized that conspecific egg cannibalism is a byproduct of aggregation, and that cannibalism rates would increase with aggregation density; however, our results do not support this. We combined field data with a lab experiment to test the effectiveness of maternal nest defense in protecting nests from a conspecific. Nests with a guard had higher hatching success and lower rates of cannibalism than unattended nests in the presence of a conspecific. We also measured body and forcep size to see whether the outcome of contests was determined by relative size. Female guards who were larger relative to the invading conspecific maintained their nest and had higher hatching success than females who were relatively smaller, suggesting that the maritime earwig is under directional selection for larger body and/or forcep size.     

Experimental assessment and validation of quantification methods for cellulose content in municipal wastewater and sludge

Environmental Science and Pollution Research - Cellulose, mostly in the form of toilet paper, forms a major component of the particulates in raw municipal wastewater, which could lead to...