Quantifying sources of climate uncertainty to inform risk analysis for climate change decision-making

Quantitative estimates of future climate change and its various impacts are often based on complex climate models which incorporate a number of physical processes. As these models continue to become more sophisticated, it is commonly assumed that the latest generation of climate models will provide us with better estimates of climate change. Here, we quantify the uncertainty in future climate change projections using two multi-model ensembles of climate model simulations and divide it into different components: internal, scenario and model. The contributions of these sources of uncertainty changes as a function of variable, temporal and spatial scale and especially lead time in the future. In the new models, uncertainty intervals for each of the components have increased. For temperature, importance of scenario uncertainty is the largest over low latitudes and increases nonlinearly after the mid-century. It has a small importance for precipitation simulations on all time scales, which hampers estimating the effect which any mitigation efforts might have. In line with current state-of-the-art adaptation approaches, we argue that despite these uncertainties climate models can provide useful information to support adaptation decision-making. Moreover, adaptation decisions should not be postponed in the hope that future improved scientific understanding will result in more accurate predictions of future climate change. Such simulations might not become available. On the contrary, while planning adaptation initiatives, a rational framework for decision-making under uncertainty should be employed. We suggest that there is an urgent need for continued development and use of improved risk analysis methods for climate change adaptation.     

Occurrence and rates of terminal electron-accepting processes and recharge processes in petroleum hydrocarbon-contaminated subsurface

The occurrence and rates of terminal electron acceptor processes, and recharge processes in the unsaturated zone of a boreal site contaminated with petroleum hydrocarbons in the range C(10) to C(40) were examined. Soil microcosms were used to determine the rates of denitrification, iron (Fe) reduction, sulfate (SO(4)) reduction, and methanogenesis in two vertical soil profiles contaminated with oil, and in a noncontaminated reference sample. Furthermore, the abundances of the 16S rRNA genes belonging to Geobacteracaea in the samples were determined by real-time quantitative polymerase chain reaction (PCR). Analyses of ground water chemistry and soil gas composition were also performed together with continuous in situ monitoring of soil water and ground water chemistry. Several lines of evidence were obtained to demonstrate that both Fe reduction and methanogenesis played significant roles in the vertical profiles: Fe reduction rates up to 3.7 nmol h(-1) g(-1) were recorded and they correlated with the abundances of the Geobacteracaea 16S rRNA genes (range: 2.3 x 10(5) to 4.9 x 10(7) copies g(-1)). In the ground water, ferrous iron (Fe(2+)) concentration up to 55 mg L(-1) was measured. Methane production rates up to 2.5 nmol h(-1) g(-1) were obtained together with methane content up to 15% (vol/vol) in the soil gas. The continuous monitoring of soil water and ground water chemistry, microcosm experiments, and soil gas monitoring together demonstrated that the high microbial activity in the unsaturated zone resulted in rapid removal of oxygen from the infiltrating recharge thus leaving the anaerobic microbial processes dominant below 1.5 m depth both in the unsaturated and the saturated zones of the subsurface.     

Development of Tools for Integrated Monitoring and Assessment of Hazardous Substances and Their Biological Effects in the Baltic Sea

The need to develop biological effects monitoring to facilitate a reliable assessment of hazardous substances has been emphasized in the Baltic Sea Action Plan of the Helsinki Commission. An integrated chemical–biological approach is vitally important for the understanding and proper assessment of anthropogenic pressures and their effects on the Baltic Sea. Such an approach is also necessary for prudent management aiming at safeguarding the sustainable use of ecosystem goods and Services. The BEAST project (Biological Effects of Anthropogenic Chemical Stress: Tools for the Assessment of Ecosystem Health) set out to address this topic within the BONUS Programme. BEAST generated a large amount of quality-assured data on several biological effects parameters (biomarkers) in various marine species in different sub-regions of the Baltic Sea. New indicators (biological response measurement methods) and management tools (integrated indices) with regard to the integrated monitoring approach were suggested.     

Bioaccumulation, bioavailability and environmental fate of chlorophenol impurities, polychlorinated hydroxydiphenylethers and their methoxy analogues

The bioaccumulation potential and environmental fate of polychlorinated hydroxydiphenyl ethers (HO-PCDEs; polychlorinated phenoxyphenols, PCPP), the major impurities of chlorophenol formulations and their methoxy analogues (MeO-PCDEs; polychlorinated methoxyanisoles, PCPAs) were investigated. Oligochaete worms (Lumbriculus variegatus) exposed to sediment spiked with a model substance of one HO-hexaCDE (4'-HO-PCDE 161) or its methoxy analogue (4'-MeO-PCDE 161) clearly accumulated the test compounds revealing the potential for environmental risk of HO-PCDEs and MeO-PCDEs. The HO-PCDE tested has earlier been reported as an abundant component in a Finnish chlorophenol formulation (Ky-5) and its methoxy analogue is recognized as an abundant MeO-PCDE in sawmill soil contaminated by the formulation. The occurrence of 4'-HO-PCDE 161 and its methoxy analogue among other HO-PCDEs and MeO-PCDEs in lake mussels (Anodonta piscinalis) incubated in a river contaminated via the manufacture of Ky-5 showed that these compounds are bioavailable and transported in the aquatic environment. Mussel comparison with sediment data pointed to a higher accumulation potential for MeO-PCDEs than for HO-PCDEs. The finding of HO-PCDEs in groundwater samples collected from a groundwater reservoir, which had been contaminated by chlorophenols, points to potential of HO-PCDEs for transport with water in soil.     

Identifying taxonomic and functional surrogates for spring biodiversity conservation

Surrogate approaches are widely used to estimate overall taxonomic diversity for conservation planning. Surrogate taxa are frequently selected based on rarity or charisma, whereas selection through statistical modeling has been applied rarely. We used boosted‐regression‐tree models (BRT) fitted to biological data from 165 springs to identify bryophyte and invertebrate surrogates for taxonomic and functional diversity of boreal springs. We focused on these 2 groups because they are well known and abundant in most boreal springs. The best indicators of taxonomic versus functional diversity differed. The bryophyte Bryum weigelii and the chironomid larva Paratrichocladius skirwithensis best indicated taxonomic diversity, whereas the isopod Asellus aquaticus and the chironomid Macropelopia spp. were the best surrogates of functional diversity. In a scoring algorithm for priority‐site selection, taxonomic surrogates performed only slightly better than random selection for all spring‐dwelling taxa, but they were very effective in representing spring specialists, providing a distinct improvement over random solutions. However, the surrogates for taxonomic diversity represented functional diversity poorly and vice versa. When combined with cross‐taxon complementarity analyses, surrogate selection based on statistical modeling provides a promising approach for identifying groundwater‐dependent ecosystems of special conservation value, a key requirement of the EU Water Framework Directive.     

Adjustment of brood care behaviour in the absence of a mate in two species of Nicaraguan crater lake cichlids

In many taxa, parental strategies can vary among individuals. This is especially true in species with biparental care, with males, more often than females, deserting their mates. While there is an abundance of theoretical predictions and empirical data on factors inducing mate abandonment by males, much less is known about what consequences this may have on female behaviour, particularly in the field and in non-avian systems. Here, we compared brood defence rate, behavioural defence types, and brood success of solitary and paired females in two species of Neotropical cichlid fish in their natural habitat. In terms of the rate of territorial aggression towards potential brood predators, solitary females were able to fully compensate in the absence of a male but, in so doing, ended up maintaining smaller territories, which appeared to compromise offspring fitness in at least one of the two species. Hence, our results suggest that even extensive quantitative compensation in parental effort by solitary females may not be enough to ensure adequate qualitative compensation for the lack of male participation, highlighting the importance of distinguishing between these two aspects of compensatory parental care.     

The “Seili-index” for the Prediction of Chlorophyll-α Levels in the Archipelago Sea of the northern Baltic Sea,southwest Finland

Environmental Modeling & Assessment - To build a forecasting tool for the state of eutrophication in the Archipelago Sea, we fitted a Generalized Additive Mixed Model (GAMM) to marine...     

Long-term changes of acidifying deposition in Finland (1973-2000)

The long-term changes of acidifying deposition in Finland during the period 1973-2000 were studied using bulk deposition data from 19 stations belonging to the national monitoring network. The regional-scale approach (southern, central and northern Finland) was used for trend assessment with respect to implementation of European sulphur (S) emission reduction amendments involving deposition changes prior to (1973-1985) and after (1986-2000) the agreements (S protocols in 1985 and 1994). There were no marked changes in sulphate deposition between the 1970s and 1980s and consistent trends in 1973-1985 were not observed. Deposition of nitrogen (N) compounds, particularly NO3-N, were increasing between the 1970s and 1980s. Deposition of base cations exhibited a slight decline throughout the 1970s and 1980s. Decrease of calcium and magnesium deposition without corresponding decrease in sulphate resulted in increased acidifying potential (AP) of deposition. Due to successful implementation of S (and N) emission reduction measures, sulphate deposition has decreased substantially (30% in northern and up to 60% in southern Finland) since the late 1980s. N deposition also decreased, but less than S deposition. Base cation deposition has also declined substantially, but this decline appeared to be leveling off during the 1990s, accounting for the decrease of AP in deposition. The observed deposition pattern is in agreement with the on-going biochemical recovery of acidified small Finnish lakes taking place since the early 1990s.     

Finnish Lake Survey: The Role of Catchment Attributes in Determining Nitrogen, Phosphorus, and Organic Carbon Concentrations

This study is based on a Finnish lake survey conducted in 1995, a dataset of 874 statistically selected lakes from the national lake register. The dataset was divided into subgroups to evaluate lake water-catchment relationships in different geographical regions and in lakes of different size. In the three southernmost regions, the coefficients of determination in multiple regression equations varied between 0.40 and 0.53 for total nitrogen (TN) and between 0.37 and 0.53 for total phosphorus (TP); the best interpreters were agricultural land and water area in the catchment. In the two northernmost regions, TN concentrations in lake water were best predicted by the proportion of peatlands in the catchment, the catchment slope, and TP concentrations by lake elevation and latitude. Coefficients of determination in multiple regression equations in these northern regions varied between 0.39 and 0.67 for TN and between 0.41 and 0.52 for TP. For all the subsets formed, the best coefficients of determination explaining TN, TP, and total organic carbon (TOC) were obtained for a subset of large lakes (>10 km²), in which 72–83% of the variation was explained. This was probably due to large heterogeneous catchments of these lakes.