A provider-based water planning and management model--WaterSim 4.0--for the Phoenix Metropolitan Area

Uncertainty in future water supplies for the Phoenix Metropolitan Area (Phoenix) are exacerbated by the near certainty of increased, future water demands; water demand may increase eightfold or more by 2030 for some communities. We developed a provider-based water management and planning model for Phoenix termed WaterSim 4.0. The model combines a FORTRAN library with Microsoft C# to simulate the spatial and temporal dynamics of current and projected future water supply and demand as influenced by population demographics, climatic uncertainty, and groundwater availability. This paper describes model development and rationale. Water providers receive surface water, groundwater, or both depending on their portfolio. Runoff from two riverine systems supplies surface water to Phoenix while three alluvial layers that underlie the area provide groundwater. Water demand was estimated using two approaches. One approach used residential density, population projections, water duties, and acreage. A second approach used per capita water consumption and separate population growth estimates. Simulated estimates of initial groundwater for each provider were obtained as outputs from the Arizona Department of Water Resources (ADWR) Salt River Valley groundwater flow model (GFM). We compared simulated estimates of water storage with empirical estimates for modeled reservoirs as a test of model performance. In simulations we modified runoff by 80%-110% of the historical estimates, in 5% intervals, to examine provider-specific responses to altered surface water availability for 33 large water providers over a 25-year period (2010-2035). Two metrics were used to differentiate their response: (1) we examined groundwater reliance (GWR; that proportion of a providers' portfolio dependent upon groundwater) from the runoff sensitivity analysis, and (2) we used 100% of the historical runoff simulations to examine the cumulative groundwater withdrawals for each provider. Four groups of water providers were identified, and discussed. Water portfolios most reliant on Colorado River water may be most sensitive to potential reductions in surface water supplies. Groundwater depletions were greatest for communities who were either 100% dependent upon groundwater (urban periphery), or nearly so, coupled with high water demand projections. On-going model development includes linking WaterSim 4.0 to the GFM in order to more precisely model provider-specific estimates of groundwater, and provider-based policy options that will enable "what-if" scenarios to examine policy trade-offs and long-term sustainability of water portfolios.     

Assessing the recovery of lakes in southeastern Canada from the effects of acidic deposition

Reductions in North American sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions promoted expectations that aquatic ecosystems in southeastern Canada would soon recover from acidification. Only lakes located near smelters that have dramatically reduced emissions approach this expectation. Lakes in the Atlantic provinces, Quebec and Ontario affected only by long-range sources show a general decline in sulfate (SO4(2-)) concentrations, but with a relatively smaller compensating increase in pH or alkalinity. Several factors may contribute to the constrained (or most likely delayed) acidity response: declining base cation concentrations, drought-induced mobilization of SO4(2-), damaged internal alkalinity generation mechanisms, and perhaps increasing nitrate or organic anion levels. Monitoring to detect biological recovery in southeastern Canada is extremely limited, but where it occurs, there is little evidence of recovery outside of the Sudbury/Killarney area. Both the occurrence of Atlantic salmon in Nova Scotia rivers and the breeding success of Common Loons in Ontario lakes are in fact declining although factors beyond acidification also play a role. Chemical and biological models predict that much greater SO2 emission reductions than those presently required by legislation will be needed to promote widespread chemical and latterly, biological recovery. It may be unrealistic to expect that pre-industrial chemical and biological conditions can ever be reestablished in many lakes of southeastern Canada.     

Predicting future invasion risk of three widespread malignant weeds on Qinghai-Tibet Plateau,using multi-algorithm ensemble models北大核心CSCD

农田恶性杂草相比普通杂草的传播更为迅速且难以有效防治,对农业生产危害严重.明确典型恶性杂草当前潜在分布面积及未来气候变化下对耕地的潜在入侵风险对农业生产管理具有重要意义.以广泛分布于青藏高原农田中的3种常见恶性杂草,即野燕麦(Avena fatua L.)、一年生早熟禾(Poa annua L.)和狗尾草[Setaria viridis(L.)P.Beauv.]为研究对象,利用广义增强模型(GBM)、广义线性模型(GLM)、人工神经网络(ANN)、最大熵(MaxEnt)、随机森林(RF)及多元自适应回归样条(MARS)算法集合预测上述3种杂草在青藏高原的潜在地理分布以及驱动其变化的关键因子,以评估其对耕地的入侵风险.未来气候场景采用最新的第六次国际耦合模式比较计划(CMIP6)框架下2050年的4种共享经济路线(SSP1-2.6、2-4.5、3-7.0、5-8.5).结果显示:野燕麦适宜分布区面积约为3.5912×10^(5) km^(2),主要分布于四川西南部及青海东部,零星分布于甘肃、西藏和新疆;一年生早熟禾和狗尾草的适宜分布区面积约为4.3046×10^(5) km^(2)和2.0036×10^(5) km^(2),均主要分布于四川西南部和西藏东南部,零星分布于青海东部和甘肃南部.年均温是3种杂草分布的最主要驱动因子.此外,人类足迹和土壤有效氮是影响野燕麦分布的相对重要因子;土壤酸碱度、最暖季降水量是影响一年生早熟禾分布的重要因子;温度季节性、最暖季降水量是影响狗尾草分布的重要因子.预计至2050年,3种杂草在4种情境下均会出现不同程度的扩张,狗尾草的扩张面积表现出随辐射强迫的增强呈先升高后趋于稳定的趋势,而另两种杂草则呈先升后降的趋势.预计3种杂草的潜在分布面积在耕地中的占比与扩张面积的变化趋势一致,且在主产区的占比高于非主产区.模拟结果表明,未来气候变化下,随着3种恶性杂草的适宜分布区面积的扩张,其对青藏高原耕地的入侵风险将增加,尤其是粮食主产区所面临威胁更为严峻,建议应重点关注青藏高原粮食主产区恶性杂草的生理生态、迁移扩散和防治技术研究.(图6表2参61)     

Hazardous waste management in educational and research centers: a case study

The hazardous waste management (HWM) practice at Tehran University of Medical Sciences Central Campus, Iran, was investigated in this study. Four schools were selected and the required information such as type and amount of wastes, temporary storage methods, waste discharge frequency, and final waste disposal methods using sampling, questionnaires, interviews with laboratory staff, and reference to available documents were gathered. The quantity of hazardous waste generation per year excluding the uncontrolled wastewater was found to be 2.072 tons per year. The obtained results show that wastes having features of being infectious, toxic, ignitable, carcinogenic, corrosive, and reactive were present at 32%, 28%, 16%, 14%, 8%, and 2%, respectively. In the central campus, hazardous solid wastes managed with household solid wastes and hazardous liquid waste were discharged into the sinks without any kind of control; improper HWM practices are evident from the point of waste production to final disposal.     

Spatial and social connectivity of fish-eating “Resident” killer whales (Orcinus orca) in the northern North Pacific

The productive North Pacific waters of the Gulf of Alaska, Aleutian Islands and Bering Sea support a high density of fish-eating “Resident” type killer whales (Orcinus orca), which overlap in distribution with commercial fisheries, producing both direct and indirect interactions. To provide a spatial context for these interactions, we analyzed a 10-year dataset of 3,058 whale photo-identifications from 331 encounters within a large (linear ~4,000 km) coastal study area to investigate the ranging and social patterns of 532 individually identifiable whales photographed in more than one encounter. Although capable of large-scale movements (maximum 1,443 km), we documented ranges generally <200 km, with high site fidelity across summer sampling intervals and also re-sightings during a winter survey. Bayesian analysis of pair-wise associations identified four defined clusters, likely representing groupings of stable matrilines, with distinct ranging patterns, that combined to form a large network of associated whales that ranged across most of the study area. This provides evidence of structure within the Alaska stock of Resident killer whales, important for evaluating ecosystem and fisheries impacts. This network included whales known to depredate groundfish from longline fisheries, and we suggest that such large-scale connectivity has facilitated the spread of depredation.     

Bayesian analysis of Jolly-Seber type models

We propose the use of finite mixtures of continuous distributions in modelling the process by which new individuals, that arrive in groups, become part of a wildlife population. We demonstrate this approach using a data set of migrating semipalmated sandpipers (Calidris pussila) for which we extend existing stopover models to allow for individuals to have different behaviour in terms of their stopover duration at the site. We demonstrate the use of reversible jump MCMC methods to derive posterior distributions for the model parameters and the models, simultaneously. The algorithm moves between models with different numbers of arrival groups as well as between models with different numbers of behavioural groups. The approach is shown to provide new ecological insights about the stopover behaviour of semipalmated sandpipers but is generally applicable to any population in which animals arrive in groups and potentially exhibit heterogeneity in terms of one or more other processes.     

Effects of the dinoflagellates Karlodinium veneficum and Prorocentrum minimum on early life history stages of the eastern oyster (Crassostrea virginica)

The bloom-forming dinoflagellates Prorocentrum minimum and Karlodinium veneficum can have detrimental effects on some marine life, including shellfish, but little is known about their effects on early life history stages of bivalves. In the Chesapeake Bay region, blooms of these dinoflagellates overlap with the spawning season of the eastern oyster, Crassostrea virginica. In laboratory experiments, we compared the effects of P. minimum and K. veneficum on the survival and development of embryos and larvae of the eastern oyster. At 10⁴ cells ml⁻¹, P. minimum did not have a negative effect on embryos and larvae in 2-day exposures. The yield of D-hinge larvae was equal to or greater than in control treatments. At 2 × 10⁴ cells ml⁻¹ (approximately equal biomass to the P. minimum treatment) K. veneficum caused significant mortality to oyster embryos within 1 day and almost no embryos developed into D-hinge larvae. This effect was not alleviated by the provision of an alternate food source (Isochrysis sp.). Significant mortality was observed when larvae were exposed to K. veneficum at concentrations of 10⁴ cells ml⁻¹ (approximately 5 ng ml⁻¹ of karlotoxin). The K. veneficum cultures used in these experiments were relatively low in toxin content, more toxic strains could be expected to cause mortality at lower cell concentrations. Survival and maturation of embryos and larvae may be reduced when spawns of the eastern oyster coincide with high bloom densities of K. veneficum.     

Copper sulphate (CuSO4) toxicity on tissue phosphatases activity and carbohydrates turnover in Achatina fulica

A time course study on the sublethal toxicity of CuSO4 on tissue carbohydrate metabolites level and their phosphatases activity in Achatina fulica revealed differential response. The levels of total carbohydrates and glycogen in the body mass muscle, foot muscle and hemolymph revealed their involvement in the endogenous derivation of energy during stress. The same metabolites in digestive gland revealed its importance to reproduction and development. The lactate accumulated in all the tissues implied the mechanism of CuSO4 toxicosis in the metabolic acidosis. The decrease of pyruvate in foot muscle, body mass muscle and hemolymph inferred the preponderance of glycolysis in energy derivation. In contrast, the pyruvate concentration in digestive gland revealed its differential response in the stress metabolic sequence of changes, as a unique tissue. The lactate/pyruvate ratio and the calcium content in tissues constitute direct evidences for the snails adaptation to toxic stress.     

Orientation ofRhizophagus grandis (Coleoptera: Rhizophagidae) to oxygenated monoterpenes in a species-specific predator-prey relationship

Summary The predator,Rhizophagus grandis, is linked to its specific prey,Dendroctonus micans, by semiochemical signals regulating oviposition and long range orientation. A mixture of simple oxygenated monoterpenes [(–)—fenchone, (–)—pinocamphone, rac. camphor, terpinene-4-ol, borneol, fenchol and verbenone], identified from the frass ofD. micans has been found to be extremely active in a flight windtunnel as a long—range attractant for the predator. The mixture elicited 84 % of the response to larval frass of the prey. Excluding pinocamphone from the mixture did not influence its activity. Also, changing the absolute configurations of some of the components (fenchol, terpinene-4-ol and borneol) did not influence the predators' response. However, the addition of (–)—-terpineol increased the attractivity of the synthetic blend to almost that of larval frass of the prey. Ecological implications of the identified semiochemicals and their use in pest management are discussed.     

Using a Bayesian network to clarify areas requiring research in a host–pathogen system

Bayesian network analyses can be used to interactively change the strength of effect of variables in a model to explore complex relationships in new ways. In doing so, they allow one to identify influential nodes that are not well studied empirically so that future research can be prioritized. We identified relationships in host and pathogen biology to examine disease‐driven declines of amphibians associated with amphibian chytrid fungus (Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis). We constructed a Bayesian network consisting of behavioral, genetic, physiological, and environmental variables that influence disease and used them to predict host population trends. We varied the impacts of specific variables in the model to reveal factors with the most influence on host population trend. The behavior of the nodes (the way in which the variables probabilistically responded to changes in states of the parents, which are the nodes or variables that directly influenced them in the graphical model) was consistent with published results. The frog population had a 49% probability of decline when all states were set at their original values, and this probability increased when body temperatures were cold, the immune system was not suppressing infection, and the ambient environment was conducive to growth of B. dendrobatidis. These findings suggest the construction of our model reflected the complex relationships characteristic of host–pathogen interactions. Changes to climatic variables alone did not strongly influence the probability of population decline, which suggests that climate interacts with other factors such as the capacity of the frog immune system to suppress disease. Changes to the adaptive immune system and disease reservoirs had a large effect on the population trend, but there was little empirical information available for model construction. Our model inputs can be used as a base to examine other systems, and our results show that such analyses are useful tools for reviewing existing literature, identifying links poorly supported by evidence, and understanding complexities in emerging infectious‐disease systems.