Forecasting volatility of carbon under EU ETS: a multi-phase study

Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - Carbon management is a strategic priority and organizations need to forecast carbon for that. We aim to find out the best ARIMA-GARCH model for...     

Mechanism of the intermittent motion of two-phase debris flows

A typical two-phase debris flow exhibits a high and steep flow head consisting of rolling boulders and cobbles with intermittent or fluctuating velocity. The relative motion between the solid phase and the liquid phase is obvious. The motion of a two-phase debris flow depends not only on the rheological properties of the flow, but also on the energy transmission between the solid and liquid phases. Several models have been developed to study two-phase debris flows. An essential shortcoming of most of these models is the omission of the interaction between the two phases and identification of the different roles of the different materials in two-phase debris flows. The tracer particles were used for the velocity of solid phase and the velocity of liquid phase was calculated by the water velocity on the surface of the debris flow in the experiments. This paper analyzed the intermittent feature of two-phase debris flows based on videos of debris flows in the field and flume experiments. The experiments showed that the height of the head of the two-phase debris flow increased gradually in the initiation stage and reached equilibrium at a certain distance from the start of the debris flow. The height growth and the velocity of the flow head showed fluctuating characteristics. Model equations were established and the analyses proved that the average velocity of the two-phase debris flow head was proportional to the flood discharge and inversely proportional to the volume of the debris flow head.     

Froude scaling limitations in modeling of turbidity currents

The scaling problem associated with the modeling of turbidity currents has been recognized but is yet to be explored systematically. This paper presents an analysis of the dimensionless governing equations of turbidity currents to investigate the scale effect. Three types of flow conditions are considered: (i) conservative density current; (ii) purely depositional turbidity current; and (iii) mixed erosional/depositional turbidity current. Two controlling dimensionless numbers, the Froude number and the Reynolds number, appear in the non-dimensional governing equations. When densimetric Froude similarity is satisfied, the analysis shows that the results would be scale-invariant for conservative density current under the rough turbulent condition. In the case of purely depositional flows, truly scale-invariant results cannot be obtained, as the Reynolds-mediated scale effects appear in the bottom boundary conditions of the flow velocity and sediment fall velocity. However, the scale effect would be relatively modest. The Reynolds effect becomes more significant for erosional or mixed erosional/depositional turbidity currents as Reynolds-mediated scale effects also appear in the sediment entrainment relation. Numerical simulations have been conducted at three different scales by considering densimetric Froude scaling alone as well as combined densimetric Froude and Reynolds similarity. Simulation results confirm that although the scaling of densimetric Froude number alone can produce scale-invariable results for conservative density currents, variations occur in the case of turbidity currents. The results become scale invariant when densimetric Froude and Reynolds similarities are satisfied simultaneously.     

2D brine sewage after impinging on a shallow sea free surface

We consider the problem of the vertically upwards disposal of heavy brine sewage from a two-dimensional diffuser in a lighter, homogeneous, motionless and shallow ambient sea. The rejected high salinity water of seawater desalination plants for urban and agricultural uses is such a case of a two dimensional fountain. The disposal of brine sewage produces a negative buoyant jet due to its initial momentum, which impinges on the free surface, spreads laterally on it and then sinks downwards, because of the negative buoyancy. Laboratory experiments and dimensional considerations are used in this paper in order to investigate the spreading behavior (width) of the vertical fountain which impinges on the free surface of the shallow ambient fluid. The experimental results have been used to derive an equation relating the width at the free surface with the initial parameters of the flow. In addition, the experimentally measured dilution of the heavier brine sewage on the recipient’s surface is compared with the dilution which was calculated by a numerical simulation of a well-known commercial software package, CORJET (a CORMIX sub model).     

Evaluation of existing equations for temporal scour depth around circular bridge piers

Scour is defined as the processes of removal of sediment particles from water stream bed by the erosive action of activated water, and also carries sediment away from the hydraulic structures. Scour is the main cause of pier failure. Numerous equations are available for estimating temporal and equilibrium scour depth. The present study describes the phenomenon of temporal scour depth variation at bridge piers and deals with the methods for its estimation. The accuracy of six temporal scour depth equations are also checked in this study. After graphical and statistical analysis, it was found that the relationship proposed by Oliveto and Hager (J Hydraul Eng (ASCE) 128(9):811–520, 2002) predicts temporal scour depth better than other equations. Three equations of equilibrium time of scour are also used for computing equilibrium time. Equilibrium time equation proposed by Choi and Choi (Water Environ J 30(1–2):14–21, 2016) gives better agreements with observed values.     

Towards quantifying the glacial runoff signal in the freshwater input to Tyrolerfjord–Young Sound,NE Greenland

Terrestrial freshwater runoff strongly influences physical and biogeochemical processes at the fjord scale and can have global impacts when considered at the Greenland scale. We investigate the performance of the HIRHAM5 regional climate model over the catchments delivering freshwater to Tyrolerfjord and Young Sound by comparing to the unique Greenland Ecological Monitoring database of in situ observations from this region. Based on these findings, we estimate and discuss the fraction of runoff originating from glacierized and non-glacierized land delivered at the daily scale between 1996 and 2008. We find that glaciers contributed on average 50–80% of annual terrestrial runoff when considering different sections of Tyrolerfjord–Young Sound, but snowpack depletion on land and consequently runoff happens about one month earlier in the model than observed in the field. The temporal shift in the model is a likely explanation why summer surface salinity in the inner fjord did not correlate to modelled runoff.     

The progress of interdisciplinarity in invasion science

Interdisciplinarity is needed to gain knowledge of the ecology of invasive species and invaded ecosystems, and of the human dimensions of biological invasions. We combine a quantitative literature review with a qualitative historical narrative to document the progress of interdisciplinarity in invasion science since 1950. Our review shows that 92.4% of interdisciplinary publications (out of 9192) focus on ecological questions, 4.4% on social ones, and 3.2% on social–ecological ones. The emergence of invasion science out of ecology might explain why interdisciplinarity has remained mostly within the natural sciences. Nevertheless, invasion science is attracting social–ecological collaborations to understand ecological challenges, and to develop novel approaches to address new ideas, concepts, and invasion-related questions between scholars and stakeholders. We discuss ways to reframe invasion science as a field centred on interlinked social–ecological dynamics to bring science, governance and society together in a common effort to deal with invasions.     

Why social values cannot be changed for the sake of conservation

The hope for creating widespread change in social values has endured among conservation professionals since early calls by Aldo Leopold for a “land ethic.” However, there has been little serious attention in conservation to the fields of investigation that address values, how they are formed, and how they change. We introduce a social–ecological systems conceptual approach in which values are seen not only as motivational goals people hold but also as ideas that are deeply embedded in society's material culture, collective behaviors, traditions, and institutions. Values define and bind groups, organizations, and societies; serve an adaptive role; and are typically stable across generations. When abrupt value changes occur, they are in response to substantial alterations in the social–ecological context. Such changes build on prior value structures and do not result in complete replacement. Given this understanding of values, we conclude that deliberate efforts to orchestrate value shifts for conservation are unlikely to be effective. Instead, there is an urgent need for research on values with a multilevel and dynamic view that can inform innovative conservation strategies for working within existing value structures. New directions facilitated by a systems approach will enhance understanding of the role values play in shaping conservation challenges and improve management of the human component of conservation.     

Evidence of new particle formation during post monsoon season over a high-altitude site of the Western Ghats,India

The formation of ultrafine particles, their growth, and associated characteristic features has been studied during new particle formation events over a high-altitude station of the Western Ghats during the 2014 post-monsoon season. Most of the events were observed during noon time where particle bursts in the nucleation-mode size range from 5 to 25 nm followed by sustained growth in size. This phenomenon persists for ～4–8 h with a growth rate of 1–2 nm h^–1. Peak concentrations of nucleation-mode particles during the event generally vary from 2300 to 5000 cm^–3. The mean growth rate is 1.4 ± 0.42 nm h^–1, particle formation rate is 1.14 ± 0.22 cm^–3 s^–1, coagulation sink is 0.35 ± 0.22 cm^–3 s^–1, and condensational sink is 15.4 ± 2.6?×?10^–3 s^–1. All these values are comparable with earlier results from Indian region. Comparison of size-segregated particle number concentration during days of new particle formation events and those without new particle formation were carried out showing a distinct variation in nucleation and Aitken mode with least variability associated with the accumulation mode.     

Trace metals distribution and their dependence on some physico-chemical parameters in creek sediment

The concentrations of the trace metals Mn, Zn, Cr, V, Co, Ni, Ba, Pb, Cu, Cd, As and Hg, their spatial distribution, and their correlation as a function of physico-chemical parameters were investigated for grab sediment samples collected from different locations across the Thane Creek, Mumbai, India. Hydride generation atomic absorption spectrometry, inductively coupled plasma atomic emission spectrometry, and differential pulse anodic stripping voltammetry were adopted for chemical analyses. Various geochemical indices were evaluated. The studied metal/metalloids were compared with sediment quality guideline values. Besides, the role of different physico-chemical parameters of the sediments such as pH, CaCO₃, cation exchange capacity, total carbon, and of the relative composition in respect to very coarse, coarse and medium sand, fine sand and very fine sand, silt and clay fraction were also critically investigated. Positive one-to-one correlations between fine sand and very fine sand, silt and clay, and total carbon with sediment metal concentrations have been noticed. Multiple regression analysis reveals strong positive correlations between sediment metal concentrations and total carbon content only.