Using a Bayesian network to clarify areas requiring research in a host–pathogen system

Bayesian network analyses can be used to interactively change the strength of effect of variables in a model to explore complex relationships in new ways. In doing so, they allow one to identify influential nodes that are not well studied empirically so that future research can be prioritized. We identified relationships in host and pathogen biology to examine disease‐driven declines of amphibians associated with amphibian chytrid fungus (Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis). We constructed a Bayesian network consisting of behavioral, genetic, physiological, and environmental variables that influence disease and used them to predict host population trends. We varied the impacts of specific variables in the model to reveal factors with the most influence on host population trend. The behavior of the nodes (the way in which the variables probabilistically responded to changes in states of the parents, which are the nodes or variables that directly influenced them in the graphical model) was consistent with published results. The frog population had a 49% probability of decline when all states were set at their original values, and this probability increased when body temperatures were cold, the immune system was not suppressing infection, and the ambient environment was conducive to growth of B. dendrobatidis. These findings suggest the construction of our model reflected the complex relationships characteristic of host–pathogen interactions. Changes to climatic variables alone did not strongly influence the probability of population decline, which suggests that climate interacts with other factors such as the capacity of the frog immune system to suppress disease. Changes to the adaptive immune system and disease reservoirs had a large effect on the population trend, but there was little empirical information available for model construction. Our model inputs can be used as a base to examine other systems, and our results show that such analyses are useful tools for reviewing existing literature, identifying links poorly supported by evidence, and understanding complexities in emerging infectious‐disease systems.     

Evaluation of existing equations for temporal scour depth around circular bridge piers

Scour is defined as the processes of removal of sediment particles from water stream bed by the erosive action of activated water, and also carries sediment away from the hydraulic structures. Scour is the main cause of pier failure. Numerous equations are available for estimating temporal and equilibrium scour depth. The present study describes the phenomenon of temporal scour depth variation at bridge piers and deals with the methods for its estimation. The accuracy of six temporal scour depth equations are also checked in this study. After graphical and statistical analysis, it was found that the relationship proposed by Oliveto and Hager (J Hydraul Eng (ASCE) 128(9):811–520, 2002) predicts temporal scour depth better than other equations. Three equations of equilibrium time of scour are also used for computing equilibrium time. Equilibrium time equation proposed by Choi and Choi (Water Environ J 30(1–2):14–21, 2016) gives better agreements with observed values.     

Ecoprofit-Styria-prepare Thirteen pollution prevention case studies in the Styrian industry

The paper focuses upon the organization of a federal state-funded pollution prevention project in the Styrian industry. The project includes 13 companies from the textile, pulp and paper, machine building, wood working and printed circuit board manufacturing industries, covering most of the sectors and sizes in the Styrian industry. It started in January 1994 and will last for one year. It will demonstrate the possibilities of pollution prevention and the need for further research work. This project will make use of the methods and tools that were refined in the Austrian Prepare project. As a first step, a systematic balance of all the inputs and outputs of a company is made, after which the weak points and inefficiencies of material and energy use are identified and the options for improvements, both economical and ecological, are defined. Consequently, modifications in products and production lead to a situation with less waste and emissions. The preliminary lessons from these projects are presented: as a rule, the utilities (consumption of process materials and water, cleaning, energy, preparatory and finishing steps) are treated as black boxes and usually represent a considerable optimization potential. In these areas especially there is usually a lack of information and coordination as well as a need for a systematic and comprehensive approach. Leadership in the company and creative consultants are needed for starting lasting successful pollution prevention projects.