Restricted adaptive cluster sampling

Adaptive cluster sampling can be a useful design for sampling rare and patchy populations. With this design the initial sample size is fixed but the size of the final sample (and total sampling effort) cannot be predicted prior to sampling. For some populations the final sample size can be quite variable depending on the level of patchiness. Restricted adaptive cluster sampling is a proposed modification where a limit is placed on the sample size prior to sampling and quadrats are selected sequentially for the initial sample size. As a result there is less variation in the final sample size and the total sampling effort can be predicted with some certainty, which is impor- tant for many ecological studies. Estimates of density are biased with the restricted design but under some circumstances the bias can be estimated well by bootstrapping. © Rapid Science 1998     

Semi-parametric statistical approaches for space-time process prediction

The problem of estimation and prediction of a spatial-temporal stochastic process, observed at regular times and irregularly in space, is considered. A mixed formulation involving a non- parametric component, accounting for a deterministic trend and the effect of exogenous variables, and a parametric component representing the purely spatio-temporal random variation is proposed. Correspondingly, a two-step procedure, first addressing the estimation of the non- parametric component, and then the estimation of the parametric component is developed from the residual series obtained, with spatial-temporal prediction being performed in terms of suitable spatial interpolation of the temporal variation structure. The proposed model formula-tion, together with the estimation and prediction procedure, are applied using a Gaussian ARMA structure for temporal modelling to space-time forecasting from real data of air pollution concentration levels in the region surrounding a power station in northwest Spain.     

Parents' views of teen driving risks, the role of parents, and how they plan to manage the risks

PROBLEM: There is limited information about how parents view teen driving risks and intend to handle these risks during the licensing process, and how they will respond to graduated licensing provisions. METHODS: Parents in Connecticut were interviewed when their teens got their learner's permit. The survey was undertaken when the state did not have a midnight restriction or a passenger restriction. RESULTS: Generally, parents were well aware of teen driving risks, thought parents should be thoroughly involved in the licensing process, and plan to be active participants themselves. DISCUSSION: Parents were concerned about the risk of driving after midnight and already restrict that behavior. However, parents do not seem to see or understand the risks of having even one teen passenger in the vehicle. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: The views and existing practices of parents need to be taken into account in deciding on the provisions of graduated licensing legislation and how to best ensure acceptance and compliance.     

Mode choice model for vulnerable motorcyclists in Malaysia

OBJECTIVE: In developing countries, motorcycle use has grown in popularity in the past decades. Commensurate with this growth is the increase in death and casualties among motorcyclists in these countries. One of the strategic programs to minimize this problem is to reduce motorcyclists exposure by shifting them into safer modes of transport. This study aims to explore the differences in the characteristics of bus and motorcycle users. It identifies the factors contributing to their choice of transport mode and estimates the probability that motorcyclists might change their travel mode to a safer alternative; namely, bus travel. METHODS: In this article, a survey of 535 motorcycle and bus users was conducted in seven districts of Selangor state, Malaysia. A binary logit model was developed for the two alternative modes, bus and motorcycle. RESULTS: It was found that travel time, travel cost, gender, age, and income level are significant in influencing motorcyclists' mode choice behavior. The probability of motorcycle riders shifting to public transport was also examined based on a scenario of a reduction in bus travel time and travel cost. CONCLUSIONS: Reduction of total travel time for the bus mode emerges as the most important element in a program aimed at attracting motorcyclists towards public transport and away from the motorcycle mode.     

Characteristics of speeders

OBJECTIVE: To determine the characteristics of speeders, defined as drivers of vehicles traveling at least 15 mph above the posted speed limit and relatively faster than surrounding vehicles. METHODS: Vehicle speeds were recorded on 13 roads in Virginia with speed limits ranging from 40 to 55 mph. Speeders were compared with slower drivers, defined as drivers of adjacent vehicles traveling no more than 5 mph above the speed limit. License plates were used to identify vehicle owners; owners were inferred to have been driving if observed gender and estimated age matched those of the registered owner. For these drivers, information on exact driver age and gender, vehicle make and model, and driving record was obtained from the Virginia Department of Motor Vehicles. RESULTS: Five percent of the vehicles observed were traveling at least 15 mph above the limit, and 3% qualified as speeders, as defined in this study. Speeders were younger than drivers in the comparison group, drove newer vehicles, and had more speeding violations and other moving violations on their records. They also had 60% more crashes. DISCUSSION: Speeders are a high-risk group. Their speeding behavior is not likely to be controlled without vigorous, consistent enforcement, including the use of automated technology.     

Characteristics of large cooking oil pool fires and their extinguishment by water mist

Large cooking oil pool fires, occurring in industrial oil cookers, present a severe hazard to food processing plants due to their size and the large amount of hot oil involved. This paper reports a series of full-scale fire experiments conducted in a large industrial oil cooker mock-up. The characteristics of large cooking oil pool fires and the effect of oil depth and hood position in the oil cooker on fire growth were studied. The use of water mist for extinguishing large oil pool fires and their extinguishing performance under different discharge pressure and with different types of water mist systems were investigated. Experimental results showed that the cooking oil underwent a substantial expansion in volume during heating. The fires developed quickly once the oil auto-ignited. The fire growth rate was affected by the oil depth in the pan and the hood position in the oil cooker. The water mist fire suppression systems effectively extinguished large cooking oil fires and prevented them from re-igniting. Their extinguishing performance was determined by the type of water mist system, discharge pressure and hood position in the oil cooker.     

Differences and similarities of gas and dust explosions: A critical evaluation of the European ‘ATEX’ directives in relation to dusts

Explosive gas mixtures and explosive dust clouds, once existing, exhibit similar ignition and combustion features. However, there are two basic differences between dusts and gases which are of substantially greater significance in design of safety standards than these similarities. Firstly, the physics of generation and up-keeping of dust clouds and premixed gas/vapour clouds are substantially different. This means that in most situations where accidental explosive gas clouds may be produced quite readily, generation of explosive dust clouds would be highly unlikely. Secondly, contrary to premixed gas flame propagation, the propagation of flames in dust/air mixtures is not limited only to the flammable dust concentration range of dynamic clouds. The state of stagnant layers/deposits offers an additional discrete possibility of flame propagation.

The two European Directives 94/9/EC (1994) and 1999/92/EC (1999) primarily address gases/vapours, whereas the particular properties of dusts are not addressed adequately. Some recent IEC and European dust standards resulting from this deficiency are discussed, and the need for revising the two directives accordingly is emphasized.     

Off-site emergency scenario, a case study from a LPG Bottling Plant

After Bhopal disaster, emergency planning in an industrial area has become inevitable. The off-site emergency plan is an integral part of any major hazard control system. Boiling Liquid Expanding Vapour Explosion (BLEVE) leads to fatal consequences. This paper highlights some salient features of the emergency scenario, which ultimately leads to fireball with enormous pressure wave all around.