Use of Abundance of One Species as a Surrogate for Abundance of Others

Abstract: Indicator species concepts have a long history in conservation biology. Arguments in favor of these approaches generally stress expediency and assume efficacy. We tested the premise that the abundance patterns of one species can be used to infer those of other species. Our data consisted of 72,495 bird observations on 55 species across 1046 plots distributed across 30 sub basins. We analyzed abundance patterns at two spatial scales (plot and sub basin) and for empirical and a priori grouping. There were few significant indicator relationships at either scale or under either grouping rule, and those few we found did not explain a substantial portion of the abundance of other species. Coupled with the lack of proven efficacy for species surrogacy in the literature, our results indicate the utility of indicators and similar types of surrogate approaches must be demonstrated rather than assumed.     

Reexamining the Minimum Viable Population Concept for Long‐Lived Species

For decades conservation biologists have proposed general rules of thumb for minimum viable population size (MVP); typically, they range from hundreds to thousands of individuals. These rules have shifted conservation resources away from small and fragmented populations. We examined whether iteroparous, long‐lived species might constitute an exception to general MVP guidelines. On the basis of results from a 10‐year capture‐recapture study in eastern New York (U.S.A.), we developed a comprehensive demographic model for the globally threatened bog turtle (Glyptemys muhlenbergii), which is designated as endangered by the IUCN in 2011. We assessed population viability across a wide range of initial abundances and carrying capacities. Not accounting for inbreeding, our results suggest that bog turtle colonies with as few as 15 breeding females have >90% probability of persisting for >100 years, provided vital rates and environmental variance remain at currently estimated levels. On the basis of our results, we suggest that MVP thresholds may be 1–2 orders of magnitude too high for many long‐lived organisms. Consequently, protection of small and fragmented populations may constitute a viable conservation option for such species, especially in a regional or metapopulation context. Reexaminando el Concepto de Población Mínima Viable para Especies Longevas Resumen     

A Resistant-Kernel Model of Connectivity for Amphibians that Breed in Vernal Pools

Abstract:  Pool-breeding amphibian populations operate at multiple scales, from the individual pool to surrounding upland habitat to clusters of pools. When metapopulation dynamics play a role in long-term viability, conservation efforts limited to the protection of individual pools or even pools with associated upland habitat may be ineffective over the long term if connectivity among pools is not maintained. Connectivity becomes especially important and difficult to assess in regions where suburban sprawl is rapidly increasing land development, road density, and traffic rates. We developed a model of connectivity among vernal pools for the four ambystomatid salamanders that occur in Massachusetts and applied it to the nearly 30,000 potential ephemeral wetlands across the state. The model was based on a modification of the kernel estimator (a density estimator commonly used in home range studies) that takes landscape resistance into account. The model was parameterized with empirical migration distances for spotted salamanders ( Ambystoma maculatum ), dispersal distances for marbled salamanders ( A. opacum ), and expert-derived estimates of landscape resistance. The model ranked vernal pools in Massachusetts by local, neighborhood, and regional connectivity and by an integrated measure of connectivity, both statewide and within ecoregions. The most functionally connected pool complexes occurred in southeastern and northeastern Massachusetts, areas with rapidly increasing suburban development. In a sensitivity analysis estimates of pool connectivity were relatively insensitive to uncertainty in parameter estimates, especially at the local and neighborhood scales. Our connectivity model could be used to prioritize conservation efforts for vernal-pool amphibian populations at broader scales than traditional pool-based approaches.     

CHARACTERIZING DISSOLVED OXYGEN CONDITIONS IN ESTUARINE ENVIRONMENTS

Dissolved oxygen concentration, which is often measured inestuaries to quantify the results of and stresses associatedwith eutrophication, can be highly variable with time of dayand tidal stage. To assess how well dissolved oxygenconditions are characterized by typical monitoring programs,we conducted Monte Carlo sampling from 16 semi-continuous,31-day dissolved oxygen records collected from estuaries alongthe Atlantic and Gulf coasts to mimic three samplingstrategies: (1) systematic point-in-time sampling, (2) randompoint-in-time sampling, and (3) short-term continuous records.These strategies were evaluated for their accuracy inestimating mean oxygen concentration, minimum oxygenconcentration, and percent of time below a threshold value of2 ppm. Mean dissolved oxygen concentration was most accuratelyestimated in both estuarine regions by random point-in-timesampling, but this strategy required more than ten samplingsper month for the estimate to be within 0.5 ppm on 50% of thesimulations. Short-term continuous sampling (24–48 h)correctly identified estuaries in the Gulf of Mexico regionwhere dissolved oxygen concentrations of less than 2 ppm wereexperienced greater than 20% of the time. However, largetidal variations in Atlantic coast estuaries showed thismeasure to be inaccurate in these estuarine environments. Noneof the sampling strategies correctly identified month-longoxygen minima within 0.5 ppm for more than 50% of thesimulations. This inability to characterize correctlydissolved oxygen conditions could add significant uncertaintyto risk assessments, waste load allocation models, and otherwater quality evaluations that are the basis for developingwastewater treatment strategies and requirements. Perhaps moreimportantly, the inaccuracy with which conventional samplingprocedures characterize minimum dissolved oxygen valuessuggests that the extent of hypoxia in estuarine waters inbeing substantially underestimated.     

Relational demography in supervisor–subordinate dyads: Impact on subordinate job satisfaction,burnout, and perceived procedural justice

Although research has shown that demographic dissimilarity within groups is negatively associated with organizational attachment-orientated variables, few studies have investigated its relations with other job-related variables. Focusing on relational demographics within the context of superior–subordinate dyads, associations between relational demographic characteristics and subordinate job attitudes and perceptions were examined using polynomial regression. Relational race was found to correlate with perceptions of procedural justice and job satisfaction, but not job burnout. The implications of these findings for future relational demographic research are discussed. © 1997 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Person- and context-oriented perceptual age measures: additional evidence of distinctiveness and usefulness

Cleveland and Shore (1992) suggested that four perceptual age measures could be grouped into person-oriented and context-oriented factors. This study examined longitudinal data from their same sample, and tested three propositions related to the distinctiveness and usefulness of the age measures. Confirmatory factor analyses showed that the factor structure proposed by Cleveland and Shore was invariant over time, and that new multi-item scales measuring two types of age loaded on appropriate factors. As hypothesized, context-oriented measures showed less temporal stability than person-oriented measures, and the temporal relationships among person-oriented measures were more easily explained in terms of a strict simplex structure than was the case for context-oriented measures. Perceptual age measures accounted for variance in self-ratings and managers' ratings of employee health, self-ratings of retirement intentions, and managers' ratings of promotability not accounted for by chronological age. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Generic climate maps: A strategic application of climate survey data?

Data have been gathered on 93 organizations and over 3030 individuals using a climate survey. This paper examines the related concepts of climate and culture and points to their importance as root metaphors for organizational analysis. Key research issues surrounding the use of climate surveys are highlighted and a range of strategic applications of climate survey data outlined. A twofold contribution to the literature is made by considering empirical and statistical approaches used in the field and by categorizing the various climates within and across industries. The Business and Organization Climate Index (BOCI) data are analysed statistically in order to examine the practicality and validity of using organizational climate maps as part of a typical management of change intervention. The findings show that the BOCI instrument can be used to create a reliable average profile with a high degree of inter-rater reliability. The methodological issues surrounding such assessments are discussed. Moreover, these organizational profiles can be classified, by use of agglomerative statistical techniques such as cluster analysis, into eight overarching climate maps. These generic climate maps reflect three negative, one neutral and four positive variations of climate. The membership of any particular organization in the cluster is not solely determined by industry sector. However, broad patterns of strategy and organizational process are reflected in the eight clusters. Given that climate surveys reflect individual perceptions, the eight climate maps may be as strong a measure of managers' and workers' cognitive frameworks and judgements as they are representations of organizational behaviour and action.     

Quantification of Extinction Risk: IUCN's System for Classifying Threatened Species

Abstract: The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List of Threatened Species was increasingly used during the 1980s to assess the conservation status of species for policy and planning purposes. This use stimulated the development of a new set of quantitative criteria for listing species in the categories of threat: critically endangered, endangered, and vulnerable. These criteria, which were intended to be applicable to all species except microorganisms, were part of a broader system for classifying threatened species and were fully implemented by IUCN in 2000. The system and the criteria have been widely used by conservation practitioners and scientists and now underpin one indicator being used to assess the Convention on Biological Diversity 2010 biodiversity target. We describe the process and the technical background to the IUCN Red List system. The criteria refer to fundamental biological processes underlying population decline and extinction. But given major differences between species, the threatening processes affecting them, and the paucity of knowledge relating to most species, the IUCN system had to be both broad and flexible to be applicable to the majority of described species. The system was designed to measure the symptoms of extinction risk, and uses 5 independent criteria relating to aspects of population loss and decline of range size. A species is assigned to a threat category if it meets the quantitative threshold for at least one criterion. The criteria and the accompanying rules and guidelines used by IUCN are intended to increase the consistency, transparency, and validity of its categorization system, but it necessitates some compromises that affect the applicability of the system and the species lists that result. In particular, choices were made over the assessment of uncertainty, poorly known species, depleted species, population decline, restricted ranges, and rarity; all of these affect the way red lists should be viewed and used. Processes related to priority setting and the development of national red lists need to take account of some assumptions in the formulation of the criteria.     

Managing Birds and Controlling Aircraft in the Kennedy Airport–Jamaica Bay Wildlife Refuge Complex: The Need for Hard Data and Soft Opinions

During the 1980s, the exponential growth of laughing gull (Larus atricilla) colonies, from 15 to about 7600 nests in 1990, in the Jamaica Bay Wildlife Refuge and a correlated increase in the bird-strike rate at nearby John F. Kennedy International Airport (New York City) led to a controversy between wildlife and airport managers over the elimination of the colonies. In this paper, we review data to evaluate if: (1) the colonies have increased the level of risk to the flying public; (2) on-colony population control would reduce the presence of gulls, and subsequently bird strikes, at the airport; and (3) all on-airport management alternatives have been adequately implemented. Since 1979, most (2987, 87%) of the 3444 bird strikes (number of aircraft struck) were actually bird carcasses found near runways (cause of death unknown but assumed to be bird strikes by definition). Of the 457 pilot-reported strikes (mean = 23 ± 6 aircraft/yr, N= 20 years), 78 (17%) involved laughing gulls. Since a gull-shooting program was initiated on airport property in 1991, over 50,000 adult laughing gulls have been killed and the number of reported bird strikes involving laughing gulls has declined from 6.9 ± 2.9 (1983–1990) to 2.6 ± 1.3 (1991–1998) aircraft/yr; nongull reported bird strikes, however, have more than doubled (6.4 ± 2.6, 1983–1990; 14.9 ± 5.1, 1991–1998). We found no evidence to indicate that on-colony management would yield a reduction of bird strikes at Kennedy Airport. Dietary and mark–recapture studies suggest that 60%–90% of the laughing gulls collected on-airport were either failed breeders and/or nonbreeding birds. We argue that the Jamaica Bay laughing gull colonies, the only ones in New York State, should not be managed at least until all on-airport management alternatives have been properly implemented and demonstrated to be ineffective at reducing bird strikes, including habitat alterations and increasing the capability of the bird control unit to eliminate bird flocks on-airport using nonlethal bird dispersal techniques. Because the gull-shooting program may be resulting in a nonsustainable regional population of laughing gulls (>30% decline), we also recommend that attempts be made to initiate an experimental colony elsewhere on Long Island to determine if colony relocation is a feasible management option.     

Optimism and Challenge for Science‐Based Conservation of Migratory Species in and out of U.S. National Parks

Public agencies sometimes seek outside guidance when capacity to achieve their mission is limited. Through a cooperative agreement and collaborations with the U.S. National Park Service (NPS), we developed recommendations for a conservation program for migratory species. Although NPS manages ～36 million hectares of land and water in 401 units, there is no centralized program to conserve wild animals reliant on NPS units that also migrate hundreds to thousands of kilometers beyond parks. Migrations are imperiled by habitat destruction, unsustainable harvest, climate change, and other impediments. A successful program to counter these challenges requires public support, national and international outreach, and flourishing migrant populations. We recommended two initial steps. First, in the short term, launch or build on a suite of projects for high‐profile migratory species that can serve as proof to demonstrate the centrality of NPS units to conservation at different scales. Second, over the longer term, build new capacity to conserve migratory species. Capacity building will entail increasing the limited knowledge among park staff about how and where species or populations migrate, conditions that enable migration, and identifying species’ needs and resolving them both within and beyond parks. Building capacity will also require ensuring that park superintendents and staff at all levels support conservation beyond statutory borders. Until additional diverse stakeholders and a broader American public realize what can be lost and do more to protect it and engage more with land management agencies to implement actions that facilitate conservation, long distance migrations are increasingly likely to become phenomena of the past. Optimismo y Retos para la Conservación Científicamente Basada de Especies Migratorias Dentro y Fuera de Parques Nacionales de E.U.A.