Spatial Pattern Analysis of Cruise Ship–Humpback Whale Interactions in and Near Glacier Bay National Park, Alaska

Understanding interactions between large ships and large whales is important to estimate risks posed to whales by ships. The coastal waters of Alaska are a summer feeding area for humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae) as well as a prominent destination for large cruise ships. Lethal collisions between cruise ships and humpback whales have occurred throughout Alaska, including in Glacier Bay National Park (GBNP). Although the National Park Service (NPS) establishes quotas and operating requirements for cruise ships within GBNP in part to minimize ship–whale collisions, no study has quantified ship–whale interactions in the park or in state waters where ship traffic is unregulated. In 2008 and 2009, an observer was placed on ships during 49 different cruises that included entry into GBNP to record distance and bearing of whales that surfaced within 1 km of the ship’s bow. A relative coordinate system was developed in ArcGIS to model the frequency of whale surface events using kernel density. A total of 514 whale surface events were recorded. Although ship–whale interactions were common within GBNP, whales frequently surfaced in front of the bow in waters immediately adjacent to the park (west Icy Strait) where cruise ship traffic is not regulated by the NPS. When ships transited at speeds >13 knots, whales frequently surfaced closer to the ship’s midline and ship’s bow in contrast to speeds slower than 13 knots. Our findings confirm that ship speed is an effective mitigation measure for protecting whales and should be applied to other areas where ship–whale interactions are common.     

Using a Down-Scaled Bioclimate Envelope Model to Determine Long-Term Temporal Connectivity of Garry oak (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Quercus garryana</Emphasis>) Habitat in Western North America: Implications for Protected Area Planning

Under the Canadian Species at Risk Act (SARA), Garry oak (Quercus garryana) ecosystems are listed as “at-risk” and act as an umbrella for over one hundred species that are endangered to some degree. Understanding Garry oak responses to future climate scenarios at scales relevant to protected area managers is essential to effectively manage existing protected area networks and to guide the selection of temporally connected migration corridors, additional protected areas, and to maintain Garry oak populations over the next century. We present Garry oak distribution scenarios using two random forest models calibrated with down-scaled bioclimatic data for British Columbia, Washington, and Oregon based on 1961–1990 climate normals. The suitability models are calibrated using either both precipitation and temperature variables or using only temperature variables. We compare suitability predictions from four General Circulation Models (GCMs) and present CGCM2 model results under two emissions scenarios. For each GCM and emissions scenario we apply the two Garry oak suitability models and use the suitability models to determine the extent and temporal connectivity of climatically suitable Garry oak habitat within protected areas from 2010 to 2099. The suitability models indicate that while 164 km² of the total protected area network in the region (47,990 km²) contains recorded Garry oak presence, 1635 and 1680 km² of climatically suitable Garry oak habitat is currently under some form of protection. Of this suitable protected area, only between 6.6 and 7.3% will be “temporally connected” between 2010 and 2099 based on the CGCM2 model. These results highlight the need for public and private protected area organizations to work cooperatively in the development of corridors to maintain temporal connectivity in climatically suitable areas for the future of Garry oak ecosystems.     

Assessment of the Netherlands’ Flood Risk Management Policy Under Global Change

Climate change and sea level rise urge low-lying countries to draft adaption policies. In this context, we assessed whether, to what extent and when the Netherlands’ current flood risk management policy may require a revision. By applying scenarios on climate change and socio-economic development and performing flood simulations, we established the past and future changes in flood probabilities, exposure and consequences until about 2050. We also questioned whether the present policy may be extended much longer, applying the concept of ‘policy tipping points’. Climate change was found to cause a significant increase of flood risk, but less than economic development does. We also established that the current flood risk management policy in the Netherlands can be continued for centuries when the sea level rise rate does not exceed 1.5 m per century. However, we also conclude that the present policy may not be the most attractive strategy, as it has some obvious flaws.     

Paradise lost already? A naturalist interpretation of the pelagic avian and marine mammal detection database of the IceAGE cruise off Iceland and Faroe Islands in fall 2011

We present naturalist sightings of seabirds and marine mammals made during a research cruise with the IceAGE project off Iceland and the Faroe Islands during September 2011. Our findings from the obtained pelagic database are in-line with many other, more in-depth studies, showing major declines for pelagic seabirds and likely sea mammals, thus revising the role that Iceland now plays for such species. Northern Fulmar (Fulmarus glacialis) was the most recorded species, followed by different gulls, Black-legged Kittiwake (Rissa tridactyla) and Northern Gannet (Morus bassanus). However, Atlantic Puffin (Fratercula arctica) and Common Murre (Uria aalge) were only seen very rarely, and no observations were made of Dovekie (Alle alle) or Thick-billed Murre (U. lomvia). These observations were surprising since Iceland is known, so far, to host globally relevant populations of these auk species. A surprising high number of thirteen species of passerines were also detected offshore, mostly Wheatear (Oenanthe oenanthe), Meadow Pipit (Anthus pratensis) and Reed Bunting (Emberiza schoeniclus). Only a few marine mammals (Balaenoptera and Megaptera sp.) were encountered. Our detections present underestimates but are discussed in relation to ongoing and recently reported but dramatic anthropogenic changes of Iceland and in the North Atlantic overall. These include the substantial decrease in bird populations, overfishing and subsequent trophic cascades, as well as climate change, Arctic shipping and more industrial development to come. In light of these dramatic ecological changes, we conclude with an urgent request for an improved effective conservation management for Iceland, the North Atlantic and its stakeholders for directly related global governance to handle problems proactively.     

Statistical downscaling for climate change projections in the Mediterranean region: methods and results

Besides dynamical downscaling by regional climate models, statistical downscaling (SD) is a major tool to derive climate change projections on regional or even local scales. For the Mediterranean area, an increasing number of downscaling studies based on different statistical techniques have been published in the last two decades with a broad range of sometimes differing results relating to different variables and regional domains. This paper gives a short review of these Mediterranean downscaling studies mainly considering the following two aspects: (1) what kind of progress has been realized in this field since the early 1990s? The review addresses the inclusion of extremes in downscaling assessments, the development of probabilistic approaches, the extension of predictor sets, the use of ensembles for both dynamical model simulations and statistical model assessments, the consideration of non-stationarities in the predictor–predictand relationships, and some advances related to synoptic downscaling. (2) What are the main regional climate change signals in the Mediterranean area, considering agreed and controversial points also with respect to dynamical models? Best accordance among future projections can be found in seasonal temperatures with lower rates of warming in winter and spring, and, in most cases, higher ones in summer and autumn. Different results are obtained for the intra-annual range of extreme temperatures, but high-temperature conditions are generally expected to increase. Regarding seasonal precipitation, predominant reductions are indicated for spring, summer, and autumn. For winter, however, projections are distinctly different (GCMs: rainfall decrease; RCMs: increase only in the northernmost parts of the Mediterranean region; SD: widespread increases in the northern and western parts in several studies). Different results are obtained for rainfall extremes, but the entire precipitation distribution tends to shift towards higher and lower values. Apart from some sub-regional deviations, there is a predominant increase in future dry period durations. For near-surface winds, only a few studies are available, and they project some decline mainly for the winter season.     

Conceptual frameworks and key questions for assessing the contribution of marine protected areas to shark and ray conservation

Marine protected areas (MPAs) are key tools in addressing the global decline of sharks and rays, and marine parks and shark sanctuaries of various configurations have been established to conserve shark populations. However, assessments of their efficacy are compromised by inconsistent terminology, lack of standardized approaches to assess how MPAs contribute to shark and ray conservation, and ambiguity about how to integrate movement data in assessment processes. We devised a conceptual framework to standardize key terms (e.g., protection, contribution, potential impact, risk, threat) and used the concept of portfolio risk to identify key attributes of sharks and rays (assets), the threats they face (portfolio risk), and the specific role of MPAs in risk mitigation (insurance). Movement data can be integrated into the process by informing risk exposure and mitigation through MPAs. The framework is operationalized by posing 8 key questions that prompt practitioners to consider the assessment scope, MPA type and purpose, range of existing and potential threats, species biology and ecology, and management and operational contexts. Ultimately, MPA contributions to shark and ray conservation differ according to a complex set of human and natural factors and interactions that should be carefully considered in MPA design, implementation, and evaluation.     

Organic Contaminants from Sewage Sludge Applied to Agricultural Soils. False Alarm Regarding Possible Problems for Food Safety? (8 pp)

Goal, Scope and Background Sewage sludge produced in wastewater treatment contains large amounts of organic matter and nutrients and could, therefore, be suitable as fertiliser. However, with the sludge, besides heavy metals and pathogenic bacteria, a variety of organic contaminants can be added to agricultural fields. Whether the organic contaminants from the sludge can have adverse effects on human health and wildlife if these compounds enter the food chain or groundwater still remains a point of controversial discussion. Main Features This paper presents an overview on the present situation in Europe and a summary of some recent results on the possible uptake of organic contaminants by crops after addition to agricultural fields by sewage sludge. Results Greenhouse experiments and field trials were performed to study the degradation and uptake of organic micro-contaminants in sludge-amended agricultural soil in crops, such as barley and carrots grown in agricultural soil amended with anaerobically-treated sewage sludge from a wastewater treatment plant, but studies hitherto have revealed no immediate risks. Common sludge contaminants such as linear alkylbenzene sulphonates (LAS), nonylphenol ethoxylates (NPE), polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH), bis(diethylhexyl) phthalate (DEHP), showed neither accumulation in soil nor uptake in plants. Discussion It is assumed that the annual amount of sewage sludge produced in Europe will increase in the future, mainly due to larger amounts of high quality drinking water needed by an increasing population and due to increasing demands for cleaner sewage water. Application of sewage sludge to agricultural soils is sustainable and economical due to nutrient cycling and disposal of sewage sludge. However, this solution also involves risks with respect to the occurrence of organic contaminants and other potentially harmful contents such as pathogens and heavy metals present in the sludge. There have been concerns that organic contaminants may accumulate in the soil, be taken up by plants and thereby transferred to humans via the food chain. Results obtained so far revealed, however, no immediate risk of accumulation of common organic sludge contaminants in soil or uptake in plants when applying sewage sludge to agricultural soil. With very high dosages of sewage sludge, there may be a risk for accumulation of very apolar contaminants, such as DEHP, to the soil. Conclusions Any conclusions on the safe use of sewage sludge in agriculture have to be drawn carefully, as the studies performed until now have been limited. Further studies are required, and before final statements can be drawn, it is imminent to study a larger variety of common crops and the effect sewage sludge application may have on a possible accumulation of organic contaminants in the crops. Furthermore, a larger variety of organic contaminants need to be studied and special focus should be given to contaminants newly introduced into the environment. Besides investigating possible plant uptake of organic contaminants, the fate of these compounds in soil after sludge application need to be monitored too. Here, special attention has to begiven to studies on degradation and the formation of degradation products, to weathering and to leaching effects on groundwater, to the application of different crops on the same field (crop rotation), to the use of full-width tillage and strip tillage, and to long term application of sewage sludge on the soil. Recommendations and Perspectives There are environmental, political as well as economical incentives to increase the agricultural application of sludge. However, such usage should be performed with care as there are also ways in which sludge fertilisation could harm the environment and human health. Recently, a new European COST Action (859) has been established covering the field of food safety and improved food quality. Part of the Action is dealing with the application of sewage sludge in agriculture. Before any political and economical measures can be taken, the pros and cons have to be sufficiently investigated on a scientific level first. ESS-Submission Editor: Prof. Elena Maestri (elena.maestri@unipr.it)     

Ethics and biodiversity offsetting

Biodiversity offsetting is an increasingly applied tool aiming to compensate for environmental damage caused by exploitation projects. Critics, however, raise concerns over the purported effectiveness of offsetting and question the ethical underpinnings and implications of offsetting. These ethical dimensions have largely been overlooked in research, which may lead to offsetting systems that fail to respect the values intended to be safeguarded. To address these dimensions, 5 ethical objections in the scientific literature were identified: offsetting violates nature's intrinsic value; losses of nature cannot be compensated for by human interventions; too little is known to make adequate trades; offsetting impedes virtuous dispositions toward nature; and offsetting has negative justice implications. We examined these objections and arguments against them based on the ethical concepts of intrinsic and instrumental values, anthropocentrism, nonanthropocentrism, and deontological, consequentialist, and virtue-ethical paradigms. Both nonanthropocentric and anthropocentric concerns were expressed in deontological, consequential, and virtue-ethical framings. Objections mostly had a deontological or virtue-ethical basis, whereas counterarguments were based on consequential reasoning, but common ground in practice is often conceivable. Based on our findings, we formulated 10 recommendations for policy makers and 5 questions for practitioners to consider. We propose, for example, that policy makers clarify aims, legislate on no-go areas, and govern the use of multipliers. We suggest that practitioners consider, for instance, how to improve case-specific knowledge and promote learning and stakeholder engagement. We hope these recommendations and questions will encourage further discussion of the ethics of biodiversity offsets and ultimately strengthen the respect for biodiversity and human-welfare values at stake in offsetting projects.     

Vortex formation and foraging in polyphenic spadefoot toad tadpoles

Animal aggregations are widespread in nature and can exhibit complex emergent properties not found at an individual level. We investigate one such example here, collective vortex formation by congeneric spadefoot toad tadpoles: Spea bombifrons and Spea multiplicata. Tadpoles of these species develop into either an omnivorous or a carnivorous (cannibalistic) morph depending on diet. Previous studies show that S. multiplicata are more likely to develop into omnivores and feed on suspended organic matter in the water body. The omnivorous morph is frequently social, forming aggregates that move and forage together and form vortices in which they adopt a distinctive slowly rotating circular formation. This behaviour has been speculated to act as a means to agitate the substratum in ponds and thus could be a collective foraging strategy. Here we perform a quantitative investigation of the behaviour of tadpoles within aggregates. We found that only S. multiplicata groups exhibited vortex formation, suggesting that social interactions differ between species. The probability of collectively forming a vortex, in response to introduced food particles, increased for higher tadpole densities and when tadpoles were hungry. Individuals inside a vortex moved faster and exhibited higher (by approximately 27%) tailbeat frequencies than those outside the vortex, thus incurring a personal energetic cost. The resulting environmental modification, however, suggests that vortex behaviour may be an adaptation to actively create and exploit a resource patch within the environment.     

What enables coexistence in plant communities? Weak versus strong species traits and the role of local processes

Explaining the coexistence of species that basically depend on the same resources has been a brainteaser for generations of ecologists. Different mechanisms have been proposed to facilitate coexistence in plant communities, where space is an important resource. Using a stochastic cellular automaton simulation model we analyze - separately and in combination - the influence of different species traits and processes which alter local competition on the coexistence of plant species over a fixed time horizon. We show that different species traits operate on different time scales in competition. We therefore suggest the concept of weak versus strong traits according to short- or long-term exclusion of species differing in these traits. As a consequence, highly non-linear trade-offs between weak and strong traits can result in communities. Furthermore, we found that trade-offs based on physiological species traits such as plant lifetime, dispersal range and plant growth, did not support broad and long-term coexistence—further processes such as density-dependent mortality and light-dependent colonization were necessary. This suggests that coexistence in plant communities requires (stabilizing) local processes to support the (equalizing) trade-offs in species traits.