Assessment of the Netherlands’ Flood Risk Management Policy Under Global Change

Climate change and sea level rise urge low-lying countries to draft adaption policies. In this context, we assessed whether, to what extent and when the Netherlands’ current flood risk management policy may require a revision. By applying scenarios on climate change and socio-economic development and performing flood simulations, we established the past and future changes in flood probabilities, exposure and consequences until about 2050. We also questioned whether the present policy may be extended much longer, applying the concept of ‘policy tipping points’. Climate change was found to cause a significant increase of flood risk, but less than economic development does. We also established that the current flood risk management policy in the Netherlands can be continued for centuries when the sea level rise rate does not exceed 1.5 m per century. However, we also conclude that the present policy may not be the most attractive strategy, as it has some obvious flaws.     

A Multivariate Baltic Sea Environmental Index

Since 2001/2002, the correlation between North Atlantic Oscillation index and biological variables in the North Sea and Baltic Sea fails, which might be addressed to a global climate regime shift. To understand inter-annual and inter-decadal variability in environmental variables, a new multivariate index for the Baltic Sea is developed and presented here. The multivariate Baltic Sea Environmental (BSE) index is defined as the 1st principal component score of four z-transformed time series: the Arctic Oscillation index, the salinity between 120 and 200 m in the Gotland Sea, the integrated river runoff of all rivers draining into the Baltic Sea, and the relative vorticity of geostrophic wind over the Baltic Sea area. A statistical downscaling technique has been applied to project different climate indices to the sea surface temperature in the Gotland, to the Landsort gauge, and the sea ice extent. The new BSE index shows a better performance than all other climate indices and is equivalent to the Chen index for physical properties. An application of the new index to zooplankton time series from the central Baltic Sea (Latvian EEZ) shows an excellent skill in potential predictability of environmental time series.     

Design, engineering, and construction of photosynthetic microbial cell factories for renewable solar fuel production

There is an urgent need to develop sustainable solutions to convert solar energy into energy carriers used in the society. In addition to solar cells generating electricity, there are several options to generate solar fuels. This paper outlines and discusses the design and engineering of photosynthetic microbial systems for the generation of renewable solar fuels, with a focus on cyanobacteria. Cyanobacteria are prokaryotic microorganisms with the same type of photosynthesis as higher plants. Native and engineered cyanobacteria have been used by us and others as model systems to examine, demonstrate, and develop photobiological H(2) production. More recently, the production of carbon-containing solar fuels like ethanol, butanol, and isoprene have been demonstrated. We are using a synthetic biology approach to develop efficient photosynthetic microbial cell factories for direct generation of biofuels from solar energy. Present progress and advances in the design, engineering, and construction of such cyanobacterial cells for the generation of a portfolio of solar fuels, e.g., hydrogen, alcohols, and isoprene, are presented and discussed. Possibilities and challenges when introducing and using synthetic biology are highlighted.     

Mercury Levels in Pristine and Gold Mining Impacted Aquatic Ecosystems of Suriname, South America

Mercury levels in sediment and predatory fish were measured for 53 localities in Suriname. The average mercury level in bottom sediment surpassed the Canadian standard for sediment in most localities, except the coastal plains. Of the predatory fish, 41 % had a mercury level above the European Union standard for human consumption of 0.5 μg g⁻¹. Highest mercury levels were found in fish from the Brokopondo Reservoir and from the Upper Coppename River. High levels of mercury in fish in pristine areas are explained by atmospheric transportation of mercury with the northeastern trade winds followed by wet deposition. Contrary to gold mining areas, where mercury is bound to drifting sediments, in “pristine” areas the mercury is freely available for bio-accumulation and uptake. Impacts on piscivorous reptiles, birds, and mammals are unknown, but likely to be negative.     

Release of methane from aerobic soil: an indication of a novel chemical natural process?

Methane (CH₄) formation under aerobic conditions has been intensely debated, especially since the discovery of CH₄ generation by both dried plant material and living plants. In this study we test the hypothesis that non-microbial CH₄ formation also occurs in soils. All lyophilised soil samples investigated under aerobic conditions released CH₄ at temperatures ranging from 30 to 70 °C exceeding that allowing normal enzymatic activity to proceed. No emissions were observed for single mineral soil components such as quartz sand, clay mineral and iron oxide. Methane release rates from the soils investigated were found to increase both with increasing temperature and higher organic carbon content. Addition of water to dried soils increased CH₄ release rates up to 8-fold those observed with the dried material. Our results suggest the existence of a chemical process in soils that produces CH₄ under aerobic conditions, a finding which has not been hitherto reported.     

Methyl chloride emissions from halophyte leaf litter: dependence on temperature and chloride content

Methyl chloride (CH₃Cl) is the most abundant natural chlorine containing compound in the atmosphere, and responsible for a significant fraction of stratospheric ozone destruction. Understanding the global CH₃Cl budget is therefore of great importance. However, the strength of the individual sources and sinks is still uncertain. Leaf litter is a potentially important source of methyl chloride, but factors controlling the emissions are unclear. This study investigated CH₃Cl emissions from leaf litter of twelve halophyte species. The emissions were not due to biological activity, and emission rates varied between halophyte species up to two orders of magnitude. For all species, the CH₃Cl emission rates increased with temperature following the Arrhenius relation. Activation energies were similar for all investigated plant species, indicating that even though emissions vary largely between plant species, their response to changing temperatures is similar. The chloride and methoxyl group contents of the leaf litter samples were determined, but those parameters were not significantly correlated to the CH₃Cl emission rate.     

Polychlorinated biphenyls and polybrominated diphenyl ethers in the North American atmosphere

To assess the spatial concentration variability of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) in the atmosphere on a large continental scale, their annually integrated air concentrations were determined in 2000/2001 using XAD-based passive air samplers (PAS). The network included 40 stations in Canada, the United States, Mexico, Belize and Costa Rica, and covered 72 degrees of latitude and longitude. Total concentrations of PCB and PBDE congeners ranged from below the detection limit to 130 ng PAS-1 and 24 ng PAS-1, respectively. PCBs displayed a large variation between urban, rural and remote sites, whereas PBDEs did not follow such a pattern. Open burning of "Penta"-containing waste may have contributed to the PBDEs detected in the air samples from rural and remote areas. Air from the Canadian Arctic had a relatively higher percentage of lighter PCB congeners than air sampled in the tropical region, which is interpreted as evidence for global fractionation.     

Conceptual frameworks and key questions for assessing the contribution of marine protected areas to shark and ray conservation

Marine protected areas (MPAs) are key tools in addressing the global decline of sharks and rays, and marine parks and shark sanctuaries of various configurations have been established to conserve shark populations. However, assessments of their efficacy are compromised by inconsistent terminology, lack of standardized approaches to assess how MPAs contribute to shark and ray conservation, and ambiguity about how to integrate movement data in assessment processes. We devised a conceptual framework to standardize key terms (e.g., protection, contribution, potential impact, risk, threat) and used the concept of portfolio risk to identify key attributes of sharks and rays (assets), the threats they face (portfolio risk), and the specific role of MPAs in risk mitigation (insurance). Movement data can be integrated into the process by informing risk exposure and mitigation through MPAs. The framework is operationalized by posing 8 key questions that prompt practitioners to consider the assessment scope, MPA type and purpose, range of existing and potential threats, species biology and ecology, and management and operational contexts. Ultimately, MPA contributions to shark and ray conservation differ according to a complex set of human and natural factors and interactions that should be carefully considered in MPA design, implementation, and evaluation.     

Protected area planning to conserve biodiversity in an uncertain future

Protected areas are a key instrument for conservation. Despite this, they are vulnerable to risks associated with weak governance, land-use intensification, and climate change. We used a novel hierarchical optimization approach to identify priority areas for expanding the global protected area system that explicitly accounted for such risks while maximizing protection of all known terrestrial vertebrate species. To incorporate risk categories, we built on the minimum set problem, where the objective is to reach species distribution protection targets while accounting for 1 constraint, such as land cost or area. We expanded this approach to include multiple objectives accounting for risk in the problem formulation by treating each risk layer as a separate objective in the problem formulation. Reducing exposure to these risks required expanding the area of the global protected area system by 1.6% while still meeting conservation targets. Incorporating risks from weak governance drove the greatest changes in spatial priorities for protection, and incorporating risks from climate change required the largest increase (2.52%) in global protected area. Conserving wide-ranging species required countries with relatively strong governance to protect more land when they bordered nations with comparatively weak governance. Our results underscore the need for cross-jurisdictional coordination and demonstrate how risk can be efficiently incorporated into conservation planning. Planeación de las áreas protegidas para conservar la biodiversidad en un futuro incierto     

Impact of proposed changes in IESTI equations for short-term dietary exposure to pesticides from Australian and Codex perspective

ABSTRACT

In 2015 a scientific workshop was held in Geneva, where updating the four equations for estimating the short-term dietary exposure (International Estimated Short Term Intake, IESTI) to pesticides was suggested. The impact of these proposed changes on the exposure was studied by using residue data and large portion consumption data from Codex and Australia. For the Codex data, the exposure increased by a median factor of 2.5 per commodity when changing to the proposed IESTI equations. The increase in exposure was highest for bulked and blended food commodities (case 3 equations), followed by medium-sized food commodities (case 2a equations) and small- and large-sized food commodities (case 1 and case 2b equations). For the Australian data, out of 184 maximum residue limit (MRL) large portion combinations showing acute exposures below the acute reference dose (ARfD) with the current IESTI equations, 23 exceeded the ARfD with the proposed IESTI equations (12%). The percentage exceeding the ARfD was higher for the Australian MRL large portion combinations (12% of 184) than for those of Codex (1.3% of 8,366). However, the percentage MRL loss in the Australian dataset may not be representative of all pesticide MRLs since it concerns six pesticides only, specifically selected to elucidate the potential effects of the use of the proposed IESTI equations. For the Codex data, the increase in exposure using the proposed equations resulted in a small increased loss of 2.6% of the 1,110 MRLs estimated by the Joint FAO/WHO Meeting on Pesticide Residues (JMPR): 1.4% of the MRLs were already not acceptable with the current equations, 4.0% of the MRLs were not acceptable with the newly proposed equations. Our study revealed that case 3 commodities may be impacted more by the proposed changes than other commodities. This substantiates one of the conclusions of the Geneva workshop to gather information on bulking and blending practices in order to refine MRL setting and dietary risk assessment for case 3 commodities where possible.