Combining Power Analysis and Population Viability Analysis to Compare Traditional and Precautionary Approaches to Conservation of Coastal Cetaceans

Abstract: Traditionally, marine resources have been managed such that controls on new developments are implemented only when harmful effects on other environmental or economic interests can be demonstrated. This approach poses particular problems for the conservation of coastal cetaceans because potential threats to their populations are diverse and likely to interact, individual threats may result from multiple sources, and the problems inherent in studying cetaceans result in considerable scientific uncertainty and low statistical power to detect any effects. Consequently, many countries are adopting integrated coastal management programs and precautionary management principles. In practice, however, issues continue to be dealt with within traditional frameworks that require demonstration of harm. Because cetaceans are long-lived, they demand long-term studies, and populations could decline to dangerously low levels before management action is taken. We illustrate these problems using a case study from the Moray Firth, Scotland. This inshore area will soon be designated and managed as a "special area of conservation" to protect bottlenose dolphins (   Tursiops truncatus ) under the European Community's Habitats Directive. The population is small and isolated, and it faces a wide range of potential threats, but there remains considerable uncertainty over the magnitude of each threat. We combined power analysis and population viability analysis to explore the relative consequences of adopting either traditional or precautionary approaches to management. In this case, our results reaffirm the need for precautionary management. More generally, we illustrate how this approach can be used to provide a more scientific basis for determining the level of precaution required to address particular management issues in this and other marine systems.     

Seasonal effect on trace metal elements behaviour in a reservoir of northern Thailand

Trace metal elements (TME) can be real threats for living organisms. However, few studies dealt with TME in reservoirs in rural areas where farming practises could induce negative effects. Mae Thang reservoir (northern Thailand) has been studied for 3 years to understand the seasonal behaviour of dissolved TME: Fe, Mn, Cd, Al, Pb, V, Cr, Co, Ni, Cu, Zn, Mo, U and As and associated physicochemical parameters. In situ measurements of these parameters were done during the dry and the wet seasons as well as water samples along the water column for further analyses and TME determination by inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry (ICP-MS). In the dry season, the water column was characterized by a strong stratification and anoxic conditions in the hypolimnion. High rain and water input from the watershed during the wet season induced mixing of the water. All TME, except Ni, Co and Cr were less concentrated in the wet season indicating a dilution effect by water input. There was thus no important dissolved pollution coming from the watershed. The anoxic conditions in the dry season enhanced the reduction of Fe and Mn and the desorption processes. Depth, and thus oxic–anoxic conditions were the main drivers of TME in the dry season, while in the wet season, dissolution processes from parent rocks of watershed were favoured. The average concentrations of TME in the reservoir were in the limit of the international and Thai standards. Only localized values in the bottom of the reservoir for Fe and Mn were higher than the limits.     

Identification and quantification of methyl halide sources in a lowland tropical rainforest

In conjunction with the OP3 campaign in Danum Valley, Malaysian Borneo, flux measurements of methyl chloride (CH₃Cl) and methyl bromide (CH₃Br) were performed from both tropical plant branches and leaf litter in June and July 2008. Live plants were mainly from the Dipterocarpaceae family whilst leaf litter samples were representative mixtures of different plant species. Environmental parameters, including photosynthetically-active radiation, total solar radiation and air temperature, were also recorded. The dominant factor determining magnitude of methyl halide fluxes from living plants was plant species, with specimens of the genus Shorea showing persistent high emissions of both gases, e.g. Shorea pilosa: 65 ± 17 ng CH₃Cl h^?1 g^?1 (dry weight foliage) and 2.7 ± 0.6 ng CH₃Br h^?1 g^?1 (dry weight foliage). Mean CH₃Cl and CH₃Br emissions across 18 species of plant were 19 (range, <LOD ?76) and 0.4 (<LOD ?2.9) ng h^?1 g^?1 respectively; fluxes from leaf litter were 1–2 orders of magnitude smaller per dry mass. CH₃Cl and CH₃Br fluxes were weakly correlated. Overall, the findings suggest that tropical rainforests make an important contribution to global terrestrial emissions of CH₃Cl, but less so for CH₃Br.     

An assessment of the impact of climate change on air quality at two UK sites

Possible effects of climate change on air quality are studied for two urban sites in the UK, London and Glasgow. Hourly meteorological data were obtained from climate simulations for two periods representing the current climate and a plausible late 21st century climate. Of the meteorological quantities relevant to air quality, significant changes were found in temperature, specific humidity, wind speed, wind direction, cloud cover, solar radiation, surface sensible heat flux and precipitation. Using these data, dispersion estimates were made for a variety of single sources and some significant changes in environmental impact were found in the future climate. In addition, estimates for future background concentrations of NO_x, NO₂, ozone and PM₁₀ upwind of London and Glasgow were made using the meteorological data in a statistical model. These showed falls in NO_x and increases in ozone for London, while a fall in NO₂ was the largest percentage change for Glasgow. Other changes were small. With these background estimates, annual-average concentrations of NO_x, NO₂, ozone and PM₁₀ were estimated within the two urban areas. For London, results averaged over a number of sites showed a fall in NO_x and a rise in ozone, but only small changes in NO₂ and PM₁₀. For Glasgow, the changes in all four chemical species were small. Large-scale background ozone values from a global chemical transport model are also presented. These show a decrease in background ozone due to climate change. To assess the net impact of both large scale and local processes will require models which treat all relevant scales.     

Role of back diffusion and biodegradation reactions in sustaining an MTBE/TBA plume in alluvial media

A methyl tert-butyl ether (MTBE) / tert-butyl alcohol (TBA) plume originating from a gasoline spill in late 1994 at Vandenberg Air Force Base (VAFB) persisted for over 15 years within 200 feet of the original spill source. The plume persisted until 2010 despite excavation of the tanks and piping within months after the spill and excavations of additional contaminated sediments from the source area in 2007 and 2008. The probable history of MTBE concentrations along the plume centerline at its source was estimated using a wide variety of available information, including published details about the original spill, excavations and monitoring by VAFB consultants, and our own research data. Two-dimensional reactive transport simulations of MTBE along the plume centerline were conducted for a 20-year period following the spill. These analyses suggest that MTBE diffused from the thin anaerobic aquifer into the adjacent anaerobic silts and transformed to TBA in both aquifer and silt layers. The model reproduces the observation that after 2004 TBA was the dominant solute, diffusing back out of the silts into the aquifer and sustaining plume concentrations much longer than would have been the case in the absence of such diffusive exchange. Simulations also suggest that aerobic degradation of MTBE or TBA at the water table in the overlying silt layer significantly affected concentrations of MTBE and TBA by limiting the chemical mass available for back diffusion to the aquifer.     

Temporal variability in dynamic and colloidal metal fractions determined by high resolution in situ measurements in a UK estuary

In recent environmental legislation, such as the Water Framework Directive in the European Union (WFD, 2000/60/EC), the importance of metal speciation and biological availability is acknowledged, although analytical challenges remain. In this study, the Voltammetric In situ Profiler (VIP) was used for high temporal resolution in situ metal speciation measurements in estuarine waters. This instrument simultaneously determines Cd, Cu and Pb species within a size range (ca. <4 nm) that is highly relevant for uptake by organisms. The colloidal metal fraction can be quantified through a combination of VIP measurements and analyses of total dissolved metal concentrations.VIP systems were deployed over tidal cycles in a seasonal study of metal speciation in the Fal Estuary, southwest England. Total dissolved concentrations were 4.97-315 nM Cu, 0.13-8.53 nM Cd and 0.35-5.75 nM Pb. High proportions of Pb (77 ± 17%) and Cu (60 ± 25%) were present as colloids, which constituted a less important fraction for Cd (37 ± 30%). The study elucidated variations in the potentially toxic metal fraction related to river flow, complexation by organic ligands and exchanges between dissolved and colloidal phases and the sediment. Based on published toxicity data, the bioavailable Cu concentrations (1.7-190 nM) in this estuary are likely to severely compromise the ecosystem structure and functioning with respect to species diversity and recruitment of juveniles. The study illustrates the importance of in situ speciation studies at high resolution in pursuit of a better understanding of metal (bio)geochemistry in dynamic coastal systems.     

International consensus principles for ethical wildlife control

Human–wildlife conflicts are commonly addressed by excluding, relocating, or lethally controlling animals with the goal of preserving public health and safety, protecting property, or conserving other valued wildlife. However, declining wildlife populations, a lack of efficacy of control methods in achieving desired outcomes, and changes in how people value animals have triggered widespread acknowledgment of the need for ethical and evidence‐based approaches to managing such conflicts. We explored international perspectives on and experiences with human–wildlife conflicts to develop principles for ethical wildlife control. A diverse panel of 20 experts convened at a 2‐day workshop and developed the principles through a facilitated engagement process and discussion. They determined that efforts to control wildlife should begin wherever possible by altering the human practices that cause human–wildlife conflict and by developing a culture of coexistence; be justified by evidence that significant harms are being caused to people, property, livelihoods, ecosystems, and/or other animals; have measurable outcome‐based objectives that are clear, achievable, monitored, and adaptive; predictably minimize animal welfare harms to the fewest number of animals; be informed by community values as well as scientific, technical, and practical information; be integrated into plans for systematic long‐term management; and be based on the specifics of the situation rather than negative labels (pest, overabundant) applied to the target species. We recommend that these principles guide development of international, national, and local standards and control decisions and implementation.     

The ‘Pacific Adaptive Capacity Analysis Framework’: guiding the assessment of adaptive capacity in Pacific island communities

Regional Environmental Change - Community-based adaptation (CBA) is becoming an increasingly popular approach to climate change adaptation in the Pacific islands region. Building adaptive capacity...     

COUNTY COMMISSIONERS' WATER KNOWLEDGE1

ABSTRACT: This study examines the social construction of county commissioners' knowledge about water. Factors that influence what commissioners know about water include each commissioner's personal characteristics, education, experience in natural resources management, involvement in policy making, and use and evaluation of various sources of information. This study focused on county commissioners representing rural, mixed, and urban counties in Arizona, Nevada, and Utah and collected data through mail surveys and interviews. County commissioners in the survey were well educated; however, few had taken college courses directly addressing technical, management, or legal aspects of water issues. Approximately one-third had direct experience in farming and ranching; nearly two-thirds indicated that farming and ranching played a major role in their communities. Respondents had experience with a broad range of water policy issues. In evaluating thirteen information sources in terms of their frequency of use, relevancy, and reliability, respondents assessed fellow commissioners and local government staff and managers most positively and nonprofit organizations most negatively. The media was also broadly rated as less relevant and reliable than other sources of information. The commissioners in the study expressed a high level of general concern about water issues and a strung preference for local sources of information.