Developing the Ethical Delphi

A number of EU institutions and government committees across Europe have expressed interest in developing methods and decision-support tools to facilitate consideration of the ethical dimensions of biotechnology assessment. As part of the work conducted in the EC supported project on ethical tools (Ethical Bio-TA Tools), a number of ethical frameworks with the potential to support the work of public policy decision-makers has been characterized and evaluated. One of these potential tools is the Delphi method. The Delphi method was originally developed to assess variables that are intangible and/or shrouded in uncertainty by drawing on the knowledge and abilities of a diverse group of experts through a form of anonymous and iterative consultation. The method has hitherto been used by a diversity of practitioners to explore issues such as technology assessment, environmental planning, and public health measures. From the original (classical) Delphi, a family of Delphi-related processes has emerged. As a result of the evaluation of the various Delphi processes, it is proposed that the classical method can be further developed and applied as a form of ethical framework to assist policy-makers. Through a series of exercises and trials, an Ethical Delphi has been developed as a potential approach for characterizing ethical issues raised by the use of novel biotechnologies. Advantages and disadvantages of the method are discussed. Further work is needed to develop the procedural aspects of the Ethical Delphi method and to test its use in different cultural contexts. However, utilizing an ethical framework of this type combines the advantages of a methodical approach to capture ethical aspects with the democratic virtues of transparency and openness to criticism. Ethical frameworks such as the Ethical Delphi should contribute to better understanding of and decision-making on issues that involve decisive ethical dimensions.     

The species awareness index as a conservation culturomics metric for public biodiversity awareness

Although threats to global biodiversity are well known, slowing current rates of biodiversity loss remains a challenge. The Aichi targets set out 20 goals on which the international community should act to alleviate biodiversity decline, 1 of which (Target 1) aims to raise public awareness of the importance of biodiversity. Although conventional indicators for Target 1 are of low spatial and temporal coverage, conservation culturomics metrics show how biodiversity awareness can be quantified at the global scale. Following methods used for the Living Planet Index, we devised a species awareness index (SAI) to measure change in species awareness based on Wikipedia views. We calculated this index at the page level for 41,197 species listed by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) across 10 Wikipedia languages and >2 billion views from 1 July 2015 to 30 March 2020. Bootstrapped indices for the page-level SAI showed that overall awareness of biodiversity increased marginally over time, although there were differences among taxonomic classes and languages. Among taxonomic classes, overall awareness increased fastest for reptiles and slowest for amphibians. Among languages, overall species awareness increased fastest for Japanese and slowest for Chinese and German users. Although awareness of species as a whole increased and was significantly higher for traded species, from January 2016 through January 2020, change in awareness appeared not to be strongly related to whether the species is traded or is a pollinator. As a data source for public biodiversity awareness, the SAI could be integrated into the Conservation International Biodiversity Engagement Indicator.     

Ecological responses to variation in seasonal snow cover

Seasonal snow is among the most important factors governing the ecology of many terrestrial ecosystems, but rising global temperatures are changing snow regimes and driving widespread declines in the depth and duration of snow cover. Loss of the insulating snow layer will fundamentally change the environment. Understanding how individuals, populations, and communities respond to different snow conditions is thus essential for predicting and managing future ecosystem change. We synthesized 365 studies that examined ecological responses to variation in winter snow conditions. This research encompasses a broad range of methods (experimental manipulations, measurement of natural snow gradients, and long-term monitoring), locations (35 countries), study organisms (plants, mammals, arthropods, birds, fish, lichen, and fungi), and response measures. Earlier snowmelt was consistently associated with advanced spring phenology in plants, mammals, and arthropods. Reduced snow depth often increased mortality or physical injury in plants, although there were few clear effects on animals. Neither snow depth nor snowmelt timing had clear or consistent directional effects on body size of animals or biomass of plants. However, because 96% of studies were from the northern hemisphere, the generality of these trends across ecosystems and localities is also unclear. We identified substantial research gaps for several taxonomic groups and response types; research on wintertime responses was notably scarce. Future research should prioritize examination of the mechanisms underlying responses to changing snow conditions and the consequences of those responses for seasonally snow-covered ecosystems.