Age-structured modeling reveals long-term declines in the natality of western Steller sea lions.

Since the mid-1970s, the western Steller sea lion (Eumetopias jubatus), inhabiting Alaskan waters from Prince William Sound west through the Aleutian Islands, has declined by over 80%. Changing oceanographic conditions, competition from fishing operations, direct human-related mortality, and predators have been suggested as factors driving the decline, but the indirect and interactive nature of their effects on sea lions have made it difficult to attribute changes in abundance to specific factors. In part, this is because only changes in abundance, not changes in vital rates, are known. To determine how vital rates of the western Steller sea lion have changed during its 28-year decline, we first estimated the changes in Steller sea lion age structure using measurements of animals in aerial photographs taken during population surveys since 1985 in the central Gulf of Alaska (CGOA). We then fit an age-structured model with temporally varying vital rates to the age-structure data and to total population and pup counts. The model fits indicate that birth rate in the CGOA steadily declined from 1976 to 2004. Over the same period, survivorship first dropped severely in the early 1980s, when the population collapsed, and then survivorship steadily recovered. The best-fitting model indicates that in 2004, the birth rate in the central Gulf of Alaska was 36% lower than in the 1970s, while adult and juvenile survivorship were close to or slightly above 1970s levels. These predictions and other model predictions concerning population structure match independent field data from mark-recapture studies and photometric analyses. The dominant eigenvalue for the estimated 2004 Leslie matrix is 1.0014, indicating a stable population. The stability, however, depends on very high adult survival, and the shift in vital rates results in a population that is more sensitive to changes in adult survivorship. Although our modeling analysis focused exclusively on the central Gulf of Alaska, the western Gulf of Alaska and eastern Aleutians show a similar pattern of declining pup fraction with no increase in the juvenile, or pre-breeding, fraction. This suggests that declining birth rate may be a problem for western Steller sea lions across the Gulf of Alaska and into the Aleutian Islands.     

Intra-familial dispersion patterns in white-footed mice,Peromyscus leucopus

Summary Spatial relationships of white-footed mouse (Peromyscus leucopus) dams and their offspring and of littermates post-weaning were determined to evaluate if their dispersion was sufficient to prevent inbreeding. Mothers tended to leave their first nest site and establish another nest site within or near their original home range. Daughters inherited part of the maternal home range but sons dispersed. During the following breeding season, sons were not in proximity to their mothers or sisters. Daughters, however, frequently attained sexual maturity and bred within the home range of males that could have been their fathers. Differential dispersal of male and female juveniles reduces the probability of mother-son and brother-sister matings, but there is no obvious dispersal-related mechanism to prevent father-daughter matings.     

Spatial PM2.5 mobile source impacts using a calibrated indicator method

Motor vehicles are major sources of fine particulate matter (PM_2.5), and the PM_2.5 from mobile vehicles is associated with adverse health effects. Traditional methods for estimating source impacts that employ receptor models are limited by the availability of observational data. To better estimate temporally and spatially resolved mobile source impacts on PM_2.5, we developed an approach based on a method that uses elemental carbon (EC), carbon monoxide (CO), and nitrogen oxide (NO_x) measurements as an indicator of mobile source impacts. We extended the original integrated mobile source indicator (IMSI) method in three aspects. First, we generated spatially resolved indicators using 24-hr average concentrations of EC, CO, and NO_x estimated at 4 km resolution by applying a method developed to fuse chemical transport model (Community Multiscale Air Quality Model [CMAQ]) simulations and observations. Second, we used spatially resolved emissions instead of county-level emissions in the IMSI formulation. Third, we spatially calibrated the unitless indicators to annually-averaged mobile source impacts estimated by the receptor model Chemical Mass Balance (CMB). Daily total mobile source impacts on PM_2.5, as well as separate gasoline and diesel vehicle impacts, were estimated at 12 km resolution from 2002 to 2008 and 4 km resolution from 2008 to 2010 for Georgia. The total mobile and separate vehicle source impacts compared well with daily CMB results, with high temporal correlation (e.g., R ranges from 0.59 to 0.88 for total mobile sources with 4 km resolution at nine locations). The total mobile source impacts had higher correlation and lower error than the separate gasoline and diesel sources when compared with observation-based CMB estimates. Overall, the enhanced approach provides spatially resolved mobile source impacts that are similar to observation-based estimates and can be used to improve assessment of health effects.

Implications: An approach is developed based on an integrated mobile source indicator method to estimate spatiotemporal PM_2.5 mobile source impacts. The approach employs three air pollutant concentration fields that are readily simulated at 4 and 12 km resolutions, and is calibrated using PM_2.5 source apportionment modeling results to generate daily mobile source impacts in the state of Georgia. The estimated source impacts can be used in investigations of traffic pollution and health.     

An Exploratory Study of Meanings of Risk Control for Long Term and Acute Effect Occupational Health and Safety Risks in Small Business Construction Firms

A qualitative study of employers' and employees' meanings of occupational health and safety (OHS) risk control was conducted among a sample of small businesses engaged in the Australian construction industry. Two OHS risks relevant to the construction industry were selected for study. One risk (falls from height) represented an immediate consequence, whereas the other (occupational skin disease) represented a long-term health effect. Meanings of the sources and control for these risks were explored during in-depth interviews. Participants perceived the immediate effect, falls from height OHS risk, as being more important in their workplaces than the delayed effect, skin disease OHS risk. The risk of falls from height was perceived to be controllable but requiring a great deal of effort to prevent, whereas there was a fatalistic resignation to the risk of occupational skin disease. Meanings of risk control for both occupational skin disease and falls from height focused on individual rather than technological risk controls. Organizational barriers to the adoption of technological OHS risk controls in the construction industry were identified.     

Tiger shark (Galeocerdo cuvier) movement patterns and habitat use determined by satellite tagging in eastern Australian waters

Partial migration is considered ubiquitous among vertebrates, but little is known about the movements of oceanodromous apex predators such as sharks, particularly at their range extents. PAT-Mk10 and SPOT5 electronic tags were used to investigate tiger shark (Galeocerdo cuvier) spatial dynamics, site fidelity and habitat use off eastern Australia between April 2007 and May 2013. Of the 18 tags deployed, 15 recorded information on depth and/or temperature, and horizontal movements. Tracking times ranged between four and 408 days, with two recovered pop-up archival tags allowing 63 days of high-resolution archived data to be analysed. Overall mean proportions of time-at-depth revealed that G. cuvier spent the majority of time-at-depths of <20 m, but undertook dives as deep as 920 m. Tagged sharks occupied ambient water temperatures from 29.5 °C at the surface to 5.9 °C at depth. Deep dives (>500 m) occurred mostly around dawn and dusk, but no definitive daily dive patterns were observed. Horizontal movements were characterised by combinations of resident and transient behaviour that coincided with seasonal changes in water temperature. While the majority of movement activity was focused around continental slope waters, large-scale migration was evident with one individual moving from offshore Sydney, Australia, to New Caledonia (c. 1,800 km) in 48 days. Periods of tiger shark residency outside of Australia’s fisheries management zones highlight the potential vulnerability of the species to unregulated fisheries and the importance of cross-jurisdictional arrangements for species’ management and conservation.     

A high resolution measurement of the morning ABL transition using distributed temperature sensing and an unmanned aircraft system

We used an unmanned aircraft system (UAS) to lift and suspend distributed temperature sensing (DTS) technologies to observe the onset of an early morning transition from stable to unstably stratified atmospheric conditions. DTS employs a fiber optic cable interrogated by laser light, and uses the temperature dependent Raman scattering phenomenon and the speed of light to obtain a discrete spatial measurement of the temperature along the cable. The UAS/DTS combination yielded observations of temperature in the lower atmosphere with high resolution (1 s and 0.1 m) and extent (85 m) that revealed the detailed processes that occurred over a single morning transition. The experimental site was selected on the basis of previous experiments and long term data records; which indicate that diurnal boundary layer development and wind sectors are predictable and consistent. The data showed a complex interplay of motions that occur during the morning transition that resulted in propagation and growth of unstable wave modes. We observed a rapid cooling of the air aloft (layer above the strong vertical temperature gradient) layer directly after sunrise due to vertical mixing followed by an erosion of the strong gradient at the stable layer top. Midway through the transition, unstable wave modes were observed that are consistent with Kelvin–Helmholtz motions. These motions became amplified through the later stages of the transition.