Modeling population effects of the Deepwater Horizon oil spill on a long-lived species

The 2010 Deepwater Horizon (DWH) oil spill exposed common bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) in Barataria Bay, Louisiana to heavy oiling that caused increased mortality and chronic disease and impaired reproduction in surviving dolphins. We conducted photographic surveys and veterinary assessments in the decade following the spill. We assigned a prognostic score (good, fair, guarded, poor, or grave) for each dolphin to provide a single integrated indicator of overall health, and we examined temporal trends in prognostic scores. We used expert elicitation to quantify the implications of trends for the proportion of the dolphins that would recover within their lifetime. We integrated expert elicitation, along with other new information, in a population dynamics model to predict the effects of observed health trends on demography. We compared the resulting population trajectory with that predicted under baseline (no spill) conditions. Disease conditions persisted and have recently worsened in dolphins that were presumably exposed to DWH oil: 78% of those assessed in 2018 had a guarded, poor, or grave prognosis. Dolphins born after the spill were in better health. We estimated that the population declined by 45% (95% CI 14–74) relative to baseline and will take 35 years (95% CI 18–67) to recover to 95% of baseline numbers. The sum of annual differences between baseline and injured population sizes (i.e., the lost cetacean years) was 30,993 (95% CI 6607–94,148). The population is currently at a minimum point in its recovery trajectory and is vulnerable to emerging threats, including planned ecosystem restoration efforts that are likely to be detrimental to the dolphins’ survival. Our modeling framework demonstrates an approach for integrating different sources and types of data, highlights the utility of expert elicitation for indeterminable input parameters, and emphasizes the importance of considering and monitoring long-term health of long-lived species subject to environmental disasters. Article impact statement: Oil spills can have long-term consequences for the health of long-lived species; thus, effective restoration and monitoring are needed.     

氮沉降的全球化:对于陆地生态系统的意义

人类活动产生的氮(N),包括农田氮肥施肥和矿物燃料燃烧过程中所固定的氮,其来源和分布正在迅速地扩展到全球范围.这部分氮进入到陆地生态系统中,将会促进植物的生长,并产生过量的氮,最终通过淋溶和痕量气体排放的形式,增加了氮的损失.在某种情况下,还会导致物种组成的变化和生态系统功能的衰减.但并非所有的生态系统都对氯沉降具有类似的响应.它们的响应情况,取决于氮沉降的连续性、生态系统的类型,生态系统对氮的需求或保持能力、土地利用的历史、土壤状况、地形条件、气候背景以及氮沉降的速度、时间和类型等因素.我们认为,起重要作用的是:一些对人类影响具有显著意义的条件、一些控制生态系统响应变化的因素以及一些由于资料缺乏而使不确定性增大的地方.