Creating and validating GIS measures of urban design for health research

Studies relating urban design to health have been impeded by the unfeasibility of conducting field observations across large areas and the lack of validated objective measures of urban design. This study describes measures for five dimensions of urban design - imageability, enclosure, human scale, transparency, and complexity - created using public geographic information systems (GIS) data from the US Census and city and state government. GIS measures were validated for a sample of 588 New York City block faces using a well-documented field observation protocol. Correlations between GIS and observed measures ranged from 0.28 to 0.89. Results show valid urban design measures can be constructed from digital sources.     

A determination of the prevalence of gender-based violence among conflict-affected populations in East Timor

The Reproductive Health Response in Conflict (RHRC) Consortium designed a standardised questionnaire to measure gender-based violence (GBV) prevalence in conflict-affected settings. A preliminary field test was undertaken July-August 2002 in one urban and one rural district in East Timor to assess the prevalence of GBV among women 18-49 years of age during and after conflict. The field test used a cross-sectional survey design with a two-stage random selection process. During the year preceding East Timor's 1999 crisis, 23.8 per cent of respondents reported physical assault by an intimate partner; this rate was not significantly different in the year preceding the survey (24.8 per cent). Assault by perpetrators outside the family declined significantly from 24.2 per cent during the crisis to 5.8 per cent post-crisis for physical assault (p<.001) and 22.7 per cent during the crisis to 9.7 per cent post-crisis for sexual assault (p=0.046). The field test stimulated and informed additional research in East Timor, and the complementary findings of these research initiatives continue to be used to develop local policies and programming to prevent and address GBV.     

Integrating spatially referenced social and biophysical data to explore landholder responses to dryland salinity in Australia

Researchers attempting to integrate socio-economic data in watershed planning often draw on nationally collected census data. However, there are critical limitations to the usefulness of this type of data for decision makers operating at the watershed scale. In this paper we demonstrate the relevance of spatially referenced socio-economic data collected using mail surveys to random selections of rural landholders. The issue explored was dryland salinity management in two large watersheds in the Murray-Darling Basin of south-eastern Australia. Contrary to the assumptions underlying public policy in Australia, but consistent with the literature on farmer knowledge, comparisons of expert maps and landholder identified salinity sites suggested that landholders in these watersheds had excellent knowledge of the current extent of salinity on their property. Our research also suggested that salinity education was a sound investment by governments. At the same time, the expert maps failed to predict half of the saline affected sites identified by landholders. Accurately mapping the extent of salinity would seem a first step in addressing this nationally significant land degradation issue.     

A systems approach to the evaluation of natural resource management initiatives

Adopting a new paradigm for natural resource and environmental policy that emphasises continuous change, adaptation and learning demands a new approach to evaluation to enable improvements in the way these initiatives contribute to sustainable resource use. Evaluation is fundamental to identifying change, supporting an adaptive approach that is flexible enough to meet the challenge of change, and enabling learning at individual, community, institutional and policy levels. Based on a consideration of changing approaches to natural resource management (NRM) policy and observations and experiences in the practical assessment of on-the-ground initiatives, the authors develop a set of principles for evaluation in NRM that: (a) addresses evaluation from a systems perspective, (b) links objective to consequence, (c) considers the fundamental assumptions and hypotheses that underpin core policy or program objectives, (d) is grounded in the natural resource, policy/institutional, economic, socio-cultural and technological contexts of implementation in practice, (e) establishes practical and valid evaluation criteria by which change can be monitored and assessed, (f) involves methodological pluralism including both quantitative and qualitative methods to ensure rigour and comprehensiveness in assessment, and (g) integrates different disciplinary perspectives (i.e. social, economic, environmental, policy and technological). The paper develops a systems-based evaluation framework that incorporates these principles and also recognises the multiple levels and nested nature of NRM policy, namely: problem characterisation, policy formulation and intent, program logic, and on-ground implementation. Finally, we demonstrate its utility through application to three contrasting Australian case studies: a community-based Integrated Catchment Management policy implementation; a resource information delivery system; and the development of a Decision Support System.     

HYDROLOGIC STUDIES OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER REGION1

Summary The Geological Survey in 1960 began a comprehensive study of the hydrology of the lower reaches of the main Colorado River valley from Davis Dam to the international boundary, and of certain adjacent areas that receive water from the river. The study includes an appraisal of the probable water supply available to the area, consumptive uses by crops, native vegetation, and evaporation, with greatest emphasis on the location and movement of ground water which may be available for development. Although final results of the study are not yet available, the objectives, scope, methods used, and some preliminary results are described.     

An introduction to decision science for conservation

Biodiversity conservation decisions are difficult, especially when they involve differing values, complex multidimensional objectives, scarce resources, urgency, and considerable uncertainty. Decision science embodies a theory about how to make difficult decisions and an extensive array of frameworks and tools that make that theory practical. We sought to improve conceptual clarity and practical application of decision science to help decision makers apply decision science to conservation problems. We addressed barriers to the uptake of decision science, including a lack of training and awareness of decision science; confusion over common terminology and which tools and frameworks to apply; and the mistaken impression that applying decision science must be time consuming, expensive, and complex. To aid in navigating the extensive and disparate decision science literature, we clarify meaning of common terms: decision science, decision theory, decision analysis, structured decision-making, and decision-support tools. Applying decision science does not have to be complex or time consuming; rather, it begins with knowing how to think through the components of a decision utilizing decision analysis (i.e., define the problem, elicit objectives, develop alternatives, estimate consequences, and perform trade-offs). This is best achieved by applying a rapid-prototyping approach. At each step, decision-support tools can provide additional insight and clarity, whereas decision-support frameworks (e.g., priority threat management and systematic conservation planning) can aid navigation of multiple steps of a decision analysis for particular contexts. We summarize key decision-support frameworks and tools and describe to which step of a decision analysis, and to which contexts, each is most useful to apply. Our introduction to decision science will aid in contextualizing current approaches and new developments, and help decision makers begin to apply decision science to conservation problems.     

A power analysis for multivariate tests of temporal trend in species composition

Long-term monitoring programs emphasize power analysis as a tool to determine the sampling effort necessary to effectively document ecologically significant changes in ecosystems. Programs that monitor entire multispecies assemblages require a method for determining the power of multivariate statistical models to detect trend. We provide a method to simulate presence-absence species assemblage data that are consistent with increasing or decreasing directional change in species composition within multiple sites. This step is the foundation for using Monte Carlo methods to approximate the power of any multivariate method for detecting temporal trends. We focus on comparing the power of the Mantel test, permutational multivariate analysis of variance, and constrained analysis of principal coordinates. We find that the power of the various methods we investigate is sensitive to the number of species in the community, univariate species patterns, and the number of sites sampled over time. For increasing directional change scenarios, constrained analysis of principal coordinates was as or more powerful than permutational multivariate analysis of variance, the Mantel test was the least powerful. However, in our investigation of decreasing directional change, the Mantel test was typically as or more powerful than the other models.     

Extending wipe sampling methodologies to elements other than lead

Wipe sampling is the USA regulatory protocol for determination of "dust lead loadings" in residential environments. Few studies have applied the wipe sampling method to metals other than lead (Pb) for the purpose of residential exposure assessments. This study was undertaken to develop and expand the wipe method for quantifying additional metal(loid)s including arsenic (As), cadmium (Cd), chromium (Cr), copper (Cu), nickel (Ni), and antimony (Sb); and to provide information on typical background loadings for these metals in urban Canadian homes. A total of 932 wipe samples, 220 field blanks, and 220 duplicate wipes were collected from 222 homes located in three cities in Ontario, Canada using the ASTM 1728 standard. The wipes were digested using a modified version of the ASTM 1644 standard for Pb, which prescribes a hot nitric acid/hydrogen peroxide digestion. The key modification was the addition of hydrofluoric acid to improve recoveries of the target elements, and determination using Inductively Coupled Plasma-Mass Spectrometry (ICP-MS). Generally, a large proportion of the results fell below the limits of detection (LOD) and quantification (LOQ). To distinguish "elevated" metal loadings from loadings characterized as "urban background", an upper background threshold for each element was derived using a normality (Q-Q) plot. LOQ was determined to be the appropriate minimum threshold based on quality assurance criteria. It is concluded that wipes are a useful sampling option to investigate multi-element loadings in residential environments.     

A process-based model for the partitioning of soluble, suspended particulate and bed sediment fractions of plutonium and caesium in the eastern Irish Sea

A dynamic model of plutonium behaviour in the marine environment has been developed, representing the oxidation state distribution and partitioning of plutonium between the soluble, colloidal, suspended particulate and seabed sediment fractions. With simple re-parameterisation, this model can also be applied to (137)Cs. The model, which is calibrated and validated against field data, has been used to predict concentrations of Pu(alpha) and (137)Cs in both water and seabed sediments from the vicinity of the Sellafield Ltd. reprocessing plant in Cumbria, UK. The model predicts that sediment reworking and transport are the key environmental processes as the Sellafield Pu(alpha) and (137)Cs discharge continues to decline. Inventory calculations generated by the model are consistent with previous estimations. For a hypothetical post-discharge scenario, the concentrations of these radionuclides in both seawater and surface sediments are predicted to decrease sharply, concurrent with a downward vertical migration of the activity retained in sediments.     

Habitat as a mediator of mesopredator‐driven mammal extinction

A prevailing view in dryland systems is that mammals are constrained by the scarcity of fertile soils and primary productivity. An alternative view is that predation is a primary driver of mammal assemblages, especially in Australia, where 2 introduced mesopredators—feral cat (Felis catus) and red fox (Vulpes vulpes)—are responsible for severe declines of dryland mammals. We evaluated productivity and predation as drivers of native mammal assemblage structure in dryland Australia. We used new data from 90 sites to examine the divers of extant mammal species richness and reconstructed historic mammal assemblages to determine proportional loss of mammal species across broad habitat types (landform and vegetation communities). Predation was supported as a major driver of extant mammal richness, but its effect was strongly mediated by habitat. Areas that were rugged or had dense grass cover supported more mammal species than the more productive and topographically simple areas. Twelve species in the critical weight range (CWR) (35–5500 g) that is most vulnerable to mesopredator predation were extirpated from the continent's central region, and the severity of loss of species correlated negatively with ruggedness and positively with productivity. Based on previous studies, we expect that habitat mediates predation from red foxes and feral cats because it affects these species’ densities and foraging efficiency. Large areas of rugged terrain provided vital refuge for Australian dryland mammals, and we predict such areas will support the persistence of CWR species in the face of ongoing mammal declines elsewhere in Australia.