103.
This review paper attempts to summarize the scattered and fragmented knowledge about past and possible future changing storm-surge
statistics using the particularly well-studied case of the North Sea as an example. For this region, a complete and robust
analysis methodology has been developed in recent years. This methodology is based on dynamical and statistical models. Using
the concept of dynamical downscaling, development during recent decades, when sufficiently good and homogeneous weather data
exist, has been “reconstructed,” and scenarios of possible future change are described. “Localization” allows estimation of
changes at specific sites, e.g., harbors. As local water-level statistics depend not only on climate variations but also on
local modifications of the local bathymetry, new options for adaptation emerge. For the case of Hamburg, an option for such
future adaptations is discussed.
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