Future developments of the Bulgarian economy, energy demand, energy supply, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are projected and evaluated for baseline and mitigation scenarios. Different methods and approaches are used at different stages of the study with a tendency to incorporate them in a single integrated resource planning tool such as the MARKAL-MACRO model. The results obtained indicate that the aim of Framework Convention of Climate Change to have year 2000 GHG emissions below the base year 1988 emissions will be achieved without further mitigation steps. Reducing the expected increase of GHG emissions in the decade 2000 to 2010 requires a package of mitigation measures to be implemented in the next few years.
This review paper attempts to summarize the scattered and fragmented knowledge about past and possible future changing storm-surge
statistics using the particularly well-studied case of the North Sea as an example. For this region, a complete and robust
analysis methodology has been developed in recent years. This methodology is based on dynamical and statistical models. Using
the concept of dynamical downscaling, development during recent decades, when sufficiently good and homogeneous weather data
exist, has been “reconstructed,” and scenarios of possible future change are described. “Localization” allows estimation of
changes at specific sites, e.g., harbors. As local water-level statistics depend not only on climate variations but also on
local modifications of the local bathymetry, new options for adaptation emerge. For the case of Hamburg, an option for such
future adaptations is discussed. 相似文献
Integrated approaches to urban stormwater drainage management are being increasingly advocated as necessary for advancing more sustainable and holistic management of urban water environments. In this paper, the status of integrated approaches in the management of urban stormwater discharges to receiving waterways is summarized. The starting point of the paper is with the recent scientific contributions, revealing that integration is being pursued and implemented predominantly at two conceptual levels. These include 1) integrating the technical system with the receiving waterway environment, and 2) considering the interaction and influence of the human system with the technical system through processes such as stakeholder and public participation. Additionally, it is argued that the evolving shift towards the implementation of water-quality-based strategies advances the need for further development and application of integrated models and approaches. The cases of online physically based models for predictive control and integrated source control and public participation are presented as examples of such ongoing developments in pursuit of integrated urban stormwater management. 相似文献
Environmental-stress-mediated geographic variation in reproductive parameters has been little studied in natural vertebrate populations outside the context of climatic variation. Based on life-history theory, an increase in the degree of environmental stress experienced by a population should lead to (1) a shift in reproductive allocation from fecundity to offspring quality, (2) stronger trade-offs between reproductive parameters, and (3) changes in the relationship between female phenotype and maternal investment. To test these predictions, we investigated geographic variation in maternal investment of moor frogs (Rana arvalis) in relation to breeding site acidity (pH 4-8). We found that mean egg size increased and clutch size and total reproductive output (TRO) decreased with increasing acidity among 19 Swedish moor frog populations. Tests for variation and co-variation in maternal investment and female size and age in 233 females from a subset of four acid origin (AO) and four neutral origin (NO) populations revealed that clutch size and TRO increased with female size in both acid and neutral environments. However, in AO populations, egg size also increased with female size, and clutch size and TRO with female age, whereas in NO populations, egg size increased with female age. The strength of the egg-size-clutch-size tradeoff tended to be stronger in AO than in NO females as expected if the former experience stronger environmental constraints. All in all, these results suggest that environmental acidification selects for investment in larger eggs at a cost to fecundity, imposes negative effects on reproductive output, and alters the relationship between female phenotype and maternal investment. 相似文献
In chemotherapy, various anti-cancer drugs with different mechanisms of action are used and may represent different risk of undesirable delayed side effects in treated patients as well as in occupationally exposed populations. The aim of the present study was to evaluate genotoxic potential of four widely used anti-cancer drugs with different mechanisms of action: 5-fluorouracil (5-FU), cisplatin (CDDP) and etoposide (ET) that cause cell death by targeting DNA function and imatinib mesylate (IM) that inhibits targeted protein kinases in cancer cells in an experimental model with human hepatoma HepG2 cells. After 24 h of exposure all four anti-cancer drugs at non-cytotoxic concentrations induced significant increase in formation of DNA double strand breaks (DSBs), with IM being the least effective. The analysis of the changes in the expression of genes involved in the response to DNA damage (CDKN1A, GADD45A, MDM2), apoptosis (BAX, BCL2) and oncogenesis (MYC, JUN) showed that 5-FU, CDDP and ET upregulated the genes involved in DNA damage response, while the anti-apoptotic gene BCL2 and oncogene MYC were downregulated. On the contrary, IM did not change the mRNA level of the studied genes, showing different mechanism of action that probably does not involve direct interaction with DNA processing. Genotoxic effects of the tested anti-cancer drugs were observed at their therapeutic concentrations that may consequently lead to increased risk for development of delayed adverse effects in patients. In addition, considering the genotoxic mechanism of action of 5-FU, CDDP and ET an increased risk can also not be excluded in occupationally exposed populations. The results also indicate that exposure to 5-FU, CDDP and ET represent a higher risk for delayed effects such as cancer, reproductive effects and heritable disease than exposure to IM. 相似文献
In 2006, a controlled infection study was performed in the ‘Kranzberger Forst’ to address the following questions: (1) Will massive artificial inoculation with Apiognomonia errabunda override the previously observed inhibitory effect of chronic ozone? (2) Can biochemical or molecular markers be detected to account for the action of ozone? To this end six adult beech trees were chosen, three ozone fumigated (2× ozone) and three control trees (ambient = 1× ozone). Spore-sprayed branches of sun and shade crown positions of each of the trees, and uninoculated control branches, were enclosed in 100-L plastic bags for one night to facilitate infection initiation. Samples were taken within a five-week period after inoculation. A. errabunda infestation levels quantified by real-time PCR increased in leaves that were not fumigated with additional ozone. Cell wall components and ACC (ethylene precursor 1-amino cyclopropane-1-carboxylic acid) increased upon ozone fumigation and may in part lead to the repression of fungal infection. 相似文献
Five liver samples of two different ray species (Gymnura altavela and Zapteryx brevirostris) off the coast of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, were analyzed for their pollution with anthropogenic and naturally occurring organohalogen
compounds. 相似文献