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151.
Intervention analysis is a relatively new branch of time series analysis. The power of this technique, which gives the probability that changes in mean level can be distinguished from natural data variability, is quite sensitive to the way the data are collected. The principal independent variables influenced by the data collection design are overall sample size, sampling frequency, and the relative length of record before the occurrence of the event (intervention) that is postulated to have caused a change in mean process level.For three of the four models investigated, data should be collected so that the post-intervention record is substantially longer than the pre-intervention record. This is in conflict with the intuitive approach, which would be to collect equal amounts of data before and after the intervention. The threshold (minimum) level of change that can be detected is quite high unless sample sizes of at least 50 and preferably 100 are available; this minimum level is dependent on the complexity of the model required to describe the response of the process mean to the intervention. More complex models tend to require larger sample sizes for the same threshold detectable change level.Uniformity of sampling frequency is a key consideration. Environmental data collection programs have not historically been oriented toward data analysis using time series techniques, thus eliminating a potentially powerful tool from use in many environmental assessment applications. 相似文献
152.
Keith W. Muckleston Richard M. Highsmith 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》1978,14(5):1121-1128
ABSTRACT: As of 1976 over 225,000 acres were being irrigated by center pivot units in a five-county area of the Columbia Basin in Oregon and Washington. Most of the development took place since 1970. Dynamic application of center pivot technology altered the concept of irrigability in the study area, converting lands that were often rolling, sandy, and plagued by wind erosion from low grade grazing to productive irrigated units. This development was entirely by private enterprise, with large corporate farms accounting for much of the effort. Little prior comprehensive planning or coordination took place. When the circulation of water is altered on such a massive scale, however, unplanned impacts may be far reaching. In this case they include:1) acceleration of the shift to high cost thermoelectric generation, 2) alteration of state institutions designed to allocate water, and 3) possible significant alterations of the socioeconomic fabric of small rural service centers. 相似文献
153.
Kuntz RL Hartel PG Godfrey DG McDonald JL Gates KW Segars WI 《Journal of environmental quality》2003,32(6):2311-2318
Recent studies suggest that host origin databases for bacterial source tracking (BST) must contain a large number of isolates because bacterial subspecies change with geography and time. A new targeted sampling protocol was developed as a prelude to BST to minimize these changes. The research was conducted on the Sapelo River, a tidal river on the Georgia coast. A general sampling of the river showed fecal enterococcal numbers ranging from <10 (below the limit of detection) to 990 colony-forming units (CFU) per 100 mL. Locations with high enterococcal numbers were combined with local knowledge to determine targeted sampling sites. Fecal enterococcal numbers around one site ranged from <10 to 24,000 CFU per 100 mL. Bacterial source tracking was conducted to determine if a wastewater treatment facility at the site was responsible for this contamination. The fecal indicator bacterium was Enterococcus faecalis. Ribotyping, automated with a RiboPrinter (DuPont Qualicon, Wilmington, DE), was the BST method. Thirty-seven ribotypes were observed among 83 Ent. faecalis isolates obtained from the Sapelo River and the wastewater lagoon. Sixteen ribotypes were associated with either the river or the lagoon, and only five ribotypes (14%) were shared. Nevertheless, these five ribotypes represented 39 of the 83 Ent. faecalis isolates, almost a majority (47%). These results suggest that the fecal contamination in the river came from the wastewater treatment facility. As a prelude to BST, targeted sampling minimized subspecies changes with geography and time, and eliminated the need for a permanent host origin database by restricting BST to a small geographic area and requiring sampling to be completed in one day. 相似文献
154.
The potential to sequester atmospheric carbon in agricultural and forest soils to offset greenhouse gas emissions has generated interest in measuring changes in soil carbon resulting from changes in land management. However, inherent spatial variability of soil carbon limits the precision of measurement of changes in soil carbon and hence, the ability to detect changes. We analyzed variability of soil carbon by intensively sampling sites under different land management as a step toward developing efficient soil sampling designs. Sites were tilled cropland and a mixed deciduous forest in Tennessee, and old-growth and second-growth coniferous forest in western Washington, USA. Six soil cores within each of three microplots were taken as an initial sample and an additional six cores were taken to simulate resampling. Soil C variability was greater in Washington than in Tennessee, and greater in less disturbed than in more disturbed sites. Using this protocol, our data suggest that differences on the order of 2.0 Mg C ha(-1) could be detected by collection and analysis of cores from at least five (tilled) or two (forest) microplots in Tennessee. More spatial variability in the forested sites in Washington increased the minimum detectable difference, but these systems, consisting of low C content sandy soil with irregularly distributed pockets of organic C in buried logs, are likely to rank among the most spatially heterogeneous of systems. Our results clearly indicate that consistent intramicroplot differences at all sites will enable detection of much more modest changes if the same microplots are resampled. 相似文献
155.
Dianne Cook Carolina Cruz-Neira Bradley D. Kohlmeyer Uli Lechner Nicholas Lewin Laura Nelson Anthony Olsen Sue Pierson Jürgen Symanzik 《Environmental monitoring and assessment》1998,51(1-2):441-450
Geography inherently fills a 3D space and yet we struggle with displaying geography using, primarily, 2D display devices. Virtual environments offer a more realistically-dimensioned display space and this is being realized in the expanding area of research on 3D Geographic Information Systems (GISs). Traditionally, a GIS has only limited tools for statistical analysis, and 3D GIS research has concentrated on the visualization of the geographical terrain. Here we discuss linking multivariate statistical graphics to geography in the highly immersive C2 virtual reality environment at Iowa State University using mid-Atlantic streams data. 相似文献
156.
Keith W. Jones Anthony J. Guadagni Eric A. Stern Kerwin R. Donato Nicholas L. Clesceri 《补救:环境净化治理成本、技术与工艺杂志》1998,8(2):43-54
This article describe a unique federal project aimed at the commercialization of different technologies for the decontamination of dredged material. The project is organized so that commercialization is achieved in a seamless way, starting with validation at the bench- and pilot-scale levels, and ending with the actual construction of operational facilities. This is the first integrated sediment decontamination program in which a step-wise bench-scale validation process of innovative/emerging technologies will scale-up to a production-scale facility capable of processing up to 375,000 m3 of dredged material per year. The need to develop public-private partnerships for the facility construction is emphasized as a way of obtaining adequate finding for capital and operating costs during the startup time of the commercialization process. It is expected that the end result of the project work will be the creation of economically-viable, self-sustaining decontamination technology companies. 相似文献
157.
D. S. Olsen A. C. Whitaker D. F. Potts 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》1997,33(6):1197-1207
ABSTRACT: Stream channel stability is affected by peak flows rather than average annual water yield. Timber harvesting and other land management activities that contribute to soil compaction, vegetation removal, or increased drainage density can increase peak discharges and decrease the recurrence interval of bankfull discharges. Increased peak discharges can cause more frequent movement of large streambed materials, leading to more rapid stream channel change or instability. This study proposes a relationship between increased discharge and channel stability, and presents a methodology that can be used to evaluate stream channel stability thresholds on a stream reach basis. Detailed surveys of the channel cross section, water surface slope, streambed particle size distribution, and field identification of bankfull stage are used to estimate existing bankfull flow conditions. These site specific stream channel characteristics are used in bed load movement formulae to predict critical flow conditions for entrainment of coarse bed material (D84 size fraction). The “relative bed stability” index, defined as the ratio of critical flow condition to the existing condition at bankfull discharge, can predict whether increased peak discharges will exceed stream channel thresholds. 相似文献
158.
Frederick M. Fisher Kenneth L. Dickson John H. Rodgers Keith Anderson John Slocomb 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》1988,24(5):1017-1026
ABSTRACT: A method to partition the variation in concentrations of water chemistry parameters in a river is described. The approach consists of fitting a family of curves for each chemical parameter. Each curve indicates the response of the parameter to river flow for a particular time period or location. An analysis of covariance is then used to identify statistically significant differences between curves. Such differences result largely from two factors: (1) the discharge of effluents and (2) river flow-concentration relationships. The deviations from the fitted curves indicate month-to-month variations unrelated to river flow that are controlled by factors such as temperature-related seasonal patterns. Underlying statistical assumptions are discussed with respect to water chemistry data. The technique is applied to a data set consisting of monthly samples of 22 water chemistry parameters from the Sulphur River of Texas and Arkansas. Several patterns of response to river flow and to two effluent discharges were revealed. 相似文献
159.
Keith A. Cherkauer Stephen J. Burges Rebecca N. Handcock Jennifer E. Kay Stephanie K. Kampf Alan R. Gillespie 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》2005,41(5):1149-1159
One central issue affecting the health of native fish species in the Pacific Northwest is water temperature. In situ observation methods monitor point temperatures, while thermal infrared (TIR) remote sensing captures spatial variations. Satellite‐based TIR sensors have the ability to view large regions in an instant. Four Pacific Northwest river reaches were selected to test the ability of both satellite‐based and moderate resolution aircraft‐based TIR remote sensing products to measure river temperatures. Images with resolutions of 5, 15, and 90 meters were compared with instream temperature observations to assess how along stream radiant temperatures are affected by resolution, reach width, and sensor platform. Where the stream reach can be resolved by the sensor, all sensors obtain water temperatures within ±2°C of instream observations. Along stream temperature variations of up to ±5°C were also observed. Trends were similar between two sets of TIR images taken several hours apart, indicating that the sensors are observing actual temperature patterns from the river surface. If sensor resolution is sufficient to obtain fully resolved water pixels in the river reach, accurate temperatures and spatial patterns can be observed. The current generation of satellite‐based TIR sensors is, however, only able to resolve about 6 percent of all Washington reaches listed as thermally impaired. 相似文献
160.
An assessment of household willingness to pay for curbside recycling: a comparison of payment card and referendum approaches 总被引:8,自引:0,他引:8
Curbside recycling is a tool that communities use to reduce the need for landfill space. This study provides contingent valuation estimates of household willingness to pay (WTP) to continue a curbside recycling program in the face of budget cuts. Comparisons of two forms of the contingent valuation method (CVM) are provided: a single bounded referendum and a payment card. Neither approach emerges as unambiguously superior. Response rates were virtually identical. Both approaches show that support for curbside recycling is highly sensitive to price. Regression results from the payment card provided a more thorough identification of socio-demographic variables associated with WTP than the referendum, but the explanatory power of the two regressions did not differ significantly. The referendum estimates of mean WTP exceed those from the payment card, although the disparities are less than those typically reported in the CVM literature. Local policy makers cited the CVM results as influencing their decisions regarding funding options for the future of the program, and seemed to appreciate the fact that the two approaches provided a fairly narrow range of estimates of WTP. In an era when more of the burden of financing of environmental programs is being shifted to the local level, use of CVM to estimate the WTP of consumers for highly disaggregated goods and services designed to achieve environmental improvement will likely become more relevant to local decision makers who are interested in understanding their constituents' views. 相似文献