Using Relative Risk to Compare the Effects of Aquatic Stressors at a Regional Scale

The regional-scale importance of an aquatic stressor depends both on its regional extent (i.e., how widespread it is) and on the severity of its effects in ecosystems where it is found. Sample surveys, such as those developed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program (EMAP), are designed to estimate and compare the extents, throughout a large region, of elevated conditions for various aquatic stressors. In this article, we propose relative risk as a complementary measure of the severity of each stressor’s effect on a response variable that characterizes aquatic ecological condition. Specifically, relative risk measures the strength of association between stressor and response variables that can be classified as either “good” (i.e., reference) or “poor” (i.e., different from reference). We present formulae for estimating relative risk and its confidence interval, adapted for the unequal sample inclusion probabilities employed in EMAP surveys. For a recent EMAP survey of streams in five Mid-Atlantic states, we estimated the relative extents of eight stressors as well as their relative risks to aquatic macroinvertebrate assemblages, with assemblage condition measured by an index of biotic integrity (IBI). For example, a measure of excess sedimentation had a relative risk of 1.60 for macroinvertebrate IBI, with the meaning that poor IBI conditions were 1.6 times more likely to be found in streams having poor conditions of sedimentation than in streams having good sedimentation conditions. We show how stressor extent and relative risk estimates, viewed together, offer a compact and comprehensive assessment of the relative importances of multiple stressors.     

用Autospec-Ultima NT气相色谱-高分辨质谱分析二噁英及相关的持久性有机污染物

"二噁英"是指一类化学结构和生物特征均有某些相似之处的化合物.这些有毒化合物有几百种,可分为相关的三大类:氯代二苯并-对-二噁英(CDDs),氯代二苯并呋喃(CDFs)和某些多氯代联苯(PCBs).CDDs和CDFs并非与生具有,而是由于人类活动不注意而生成的.天然过程也会产生CDDs和CDFs.     

Development of visibility forecasting modeling framework for the Lower Fraser Valley of British Columbia using Canada’s Regional Air Quality Deterministic Prediction System

Visibility degradation, one of the most noticeable indicators of poor air quality, can occur despite relatively low levels of particulate matter when the risk to human health is low. The availability of timely and reliable visibility forecasts can provide a more comprehensive understanding of the anticipated air quality conditions to better inform local jurisdictions and the public. This paper describes the development of a visibility forecasting modeling framework, which leverages the existing air quality and meteorological forecasts from Canada’s operational Regional Air Quality Deterministic Prediction System (RAQDPS) for the Lower Fraser Valley of British Columbia. A baseline model (GM-IMPROVE) was constructed using the revised IMPROVE algorithm based on unprocessed forecasts from the RAQDPS. Three additional prototypes (UMOS-HYB, GM-MLR, GM-RF) were also developed and assessed for forecast performance of up to 48 hr lead time during various air quality and meteorological conditions. Forecast performance was assessed by examining their ability to provide both numerical and categorical forecasts in the form of 1-hr total extinction and Visual Air Quality Ratings (VAQR), respectively. While GM-IMPROVE generally overestimated extinction more than twofold, it had skill in forecasting the relative species contribution to visibility impairment, including ammonium sulfate and ammonium nitrate. Both statistical prototypes, GM-MLR and GM-RF, performed well in forecasting 1-hr extinction during daylight hours, with correlation coefficients (R) ranging from 0.59 to 0.77. UMOS-HYB, a prototype based on postprocessed air quality forecasts without additional statistical modeling, provided reasonable forecasts during most daylight hours. In terms of categorical forecasts, the best prototype was approximately 75 to 87% correct, when forecasting for a condensed three-category VAQR. A case study, focusing on a poor visual air quality yet low Air Quality Health Index episode, illustrated that the statistical prototypes were able to provide timely and skillful visibility forecasts with lead time up to 48 hr.

Implications: This study describes the development of a visibility forecasting modeling framework, which leverages the existing air quality and meteorological forecasts from Canada’s operational Regional Air Quality Deterministic Prediction System. The main applications include tourism and recreation planning, input into air quality management programs, and educational outreach. Visibility forecasts, when supplemented with the existing air quality and health based forecasts, can assist jurisdictions to anticipate the visual air quality impacts as perceived by the public, which can potentially assist in formulating the appropriate air quality bulletins and recommendations.     

Concentration and characterization of plutonium in soils of Hubei in central China

To study the Pu concentration and isotope ratio distributions present in China, the ^239+240Pu total activities and ²⁴⁰Pu/²³⁹Pu atom ratios in core soil samples from Hubei Province in central China were investigated using Accelerator Mass Spectrometry (AMS). The activities ranged from 0.019 to 0.502 mBq g⁻¹ and the ^239+240Pu inventories of 45 and ∼55 Bq m⁻² agree well with that expected from global fallout. The ²⁴⁰Pu/²³⁹Pu atom ratios in the soil ranged from 0.172 to 0.220. The ratios are similar to typical global fallout values. Hence, any close-in fallout contribution from the Chinese nuclear weapons tests, mainly conducted in the 1970s, must have either been negligible or had a similar ²⁴⁰Pu/²³⁹Pu ratio to that of global fallout. The top 10 cm layer of the soil contributes ∼90% of the total inventory and the maximum concentrations appeared in the 2-4 cm or 4-6 cm layers. It is suggested that climatic conditions and organic content are the two main factors that affect the vertical migration of plutonium in soil.     

Sulfate and Nitrate in Total Suspended Participate in Ontario

In order to make the information in the Federal Register more easily accessible, a summary has been prepared of Federal standards of performance for new stationary sources of air pollution. The standards of performance promulgated by the Environmental Protection Agency in the period from December 1971 through June 1979 are presented in tabular form.     

Comparison of Statistical Designs and Experimental Protocols Used to Evaluate Rain Acidity Effects on Field-Grown Soybeans

Published results of four field experiments testing effects of acidic precipitation in field-grown soybeans have led to contradictory conclusions. This paper examines the experimental procedures and protocols of the four experiments which could have contributed to differences in both the reported crop yields and the interpretations or conclusions drawn from the experiments.

The most important difference among the experiments is in their statistical designs. Two of the field layouts used only one plot per treatment, providing replication only for plants, rows or sectors within plots, but not among plots. By using real data from a highly replicated experiment it is shown that with such deficient statistical designs treatment effects cannot be separated from other microenvironmental variables peculiar to a specific plot location.

The other two experiments were highly replicated. They were designed to detect differences of approximately 10% among treatment means. Type 1 error, a, was predetermined, and replication was sufficient to keep type 2 error low. This design was made possible because a preliminary experiment was available to estimate the expected components of variance. Despite differences in the procedures and protocols among the four experiments, it is primarily the quality of the experimental design which has determined their validity and relative utility for crop loss assessment.     

Controlled Enrichment System for Experimental Fumigation of Plants in the Field with Sulfur Dioxide

A prototype Free-Air Controlled Enrichment (FACE) system was developed at Brookhaven National "Laboratory (BNL) for the experimental control of gas concentrations in an open field, without any form of enclosure. This FACE system consists of a toroidal plenum chamber, 15 m in diameter, with a series of 32 vertical vent pipes from which the release of a test gas can be controlled. Data on gas concentration at the center of the array and wind velocity are fed to a microprocessor where a proportional, integrative, differential (PID) algorithm is used to regulate a mass-flow controller. Data on wind direction are used to control the opening and closing of the vertical vent pipes to maintain an upwind release. In 72 hours of continuous operation during which wind velocity varied between 0.3 to 8 m sec^-1, the FACE prototype maintained 1 -min averaged concentrations within twenty percent of the 40 ppb set point 94 percent of the time.     

Wind Tunnel Modelling of Roadways: Comparison with Mathematical Models

The assessment of air quality impacts from roadways is a major concern to urban planners. In order to assess future road and building configurations, a number of techniques have been developed, including mathematical models, which simulate traffic emissions and atmospheric dispersion through a series of mathematical relationships and physical models. The latter models simulate emissions and dispersion through scaling of these processes in a wind tunnel. Two roadway mathematical models, HIWAY-2 and CALINE-4, were applied to a proposed development in a large urban area. Physical modelling procedures developed by Rowan Williams Davies & Irwin Inc. (RWDI) in the form of line source simulators were also applied, and the resulting carbon monoxide concentrations were compared. The results indicated a factor of two agreement between the mathematical and physical models. The physical model, however, reacted to changes in building massing and configuration. The mathematical models did not, since no provision for such changes was included in the mathematical models. In general, the RWDI model resulted in higher concentrations than either HIWAY-2 or CALINE-4. Where there was underprediction, it was often due to shielding of the receptor by surrounding buildings. Comparison of these three models with the CALTRANS Tracer Dispersion Experiment showed good results although concentrations were consistently underpredicted.     

Electricity from Fossil Fuels without CO2 Emissions: Assessing the Costs of Carbon Dioxide Capture and Sequestration in U.S. Electricity Markets

ABSTRACT

The decoupling of fossil-fueled electricity production from atmospheric CO₂ emissions via CO₂ capture and sequestration (CCS) is increasingly regarded as an important means of mitigating climate change at a reasonable cost. Engineering analyses of CO₂ mitigation typically compare the cost of electricity for a base generation technology to that for a similar plant with CO₂ capture and then compute the carbon emissions mitigated per unit of cost. It can be hard to interpret mitigation cost estimates from this plant-level approach when a consistent base technology cannot be identified. In addition, neither engineering analyses nor general equilibrium models can capture the economics of plant dispatch. A realistic assessment of the costs of carbon sequestration as an emissions abatement strategy in the electric sector therefore requires a systems-level analysis. We discuss various frameworks for computing mitigation costs and introduce a simplified model of electric sector planning. Results from a “bottom-up” engineering-economic analysis for a representative U.S. North American Electric Reliability Council (NERC) region illustrate how the penetration of CCS technologies and the dispatch of generating units vary with the price of carbon emissions and thereby determine the relationship between mitigation cost and emissions reduction.     

Combined PCDD/F Destruction and Particulate Control in a Baghouse: Experience with a Catalytic Filter System at a Medical Waste Incineration Plant

ABSTRACT

Phoenix Services, Inc., owns and operates the Baltimore Regional Medical Waste Incinerator in Baltimore, MD. New regulations for dioxins and furans imposed a limit that was considerably below historical emission levels. To determine a method to comply with the new dioxin/furan regulations, Phoenix Services performed trials with powdered activated carbon (PAC). Although the results with carbon were acceptable, Phoenix Services decided to replace their woven fiberglass filter bags with catalytic filters that simultaneously destroy dioxins and furans and collect particulate matter (PM). The catalytic filter system offered several advantages to Phoenix Services, including destruction of dioxins and furans instead of adsorption on carbon. The catalytic filters also offered a passive solution that did not require new carbon injection equipment. In January 2000, a campaign to measure dioxins/furans and PM was undertaken.