Traps in and of our minds: relationships between human logic,dialectical traps and social-ecological traps

Social-ecological traps are theorized to be present when human actions affect feedbacks and drivers in social-ecological systems, which, in turn, lead to regime shifts that may alter ecosystem capacity to generate services on which human wellbeing depends, and this, in turn, triggers societal responses, where actors and institutions interact with ecological dynamics and unwittingly lock development into a vulnerable pathway. The key dynamic in this theorization seems to be that human action often predicates or initiates the series of cascading affects that determine the presence of, and, perhaps, the effectiveness of, social-ecological traps. However, what drives human action in this context? What logic, assumptions, decisions, world views, and other processes are implicated in this configuration? This paper first briefly reviews ecological identity and the problems of anthropocentricism, human exceptionalism, and human exemptionalism and introduces the term ecological disenfranchisement. Building upon this, the author invokes Horn’s logic and dialectical traps as a lens for understanding human roles and the prevalence of issues with ecological identities, within social ecological traps. Drilling further down, the paper illustrates these traps with short vignettes, in each case, attempting to link the human logical traps with larger system dynamics. Finally, the author proposes a chain of reasoning to serve as an example of how the presence of human logic traps (or entrapment) in a number of different spheres has an impact upon the larger system, and, perhaps, even predicts entrapment of the larger system. Future efforts to either understand social-ecological traps or navigate away or out of them must first take stock of the human logical traps that actors within the systems are influenced by, and that influence the large system(s).This paper argues that failing to account for human traps within will render most efforts to avoid or escape social-ecological traps futile.     

Sustainable development conflict over freeway construction

Environmental disputes arise due to opposing views of various groups about their environmental concerns and their economic or developmental interests. Development and protection of the environment constitute two main contradictory objectives within the sustainable development paradigm, which are often in conflict. The decision support system, GMCR II, which implements the graph model for conflict resolution, is employed to model and analyze an environmental dispute arising over the construction of a new freeway between the Iranian capital, Tehran, and the city of Chalous located in the north of the country. This study demonstrates that the graph model for conflict resolution can be used as a methodology to promote a reasonable balance between economic development and environmental protection from a strategic viewpoint. In addition to systematically modelling the conflict by putting the existing information into proper perspective, it is shown how conflict analysis can be used for comparing alternative scenarios and predicting possible future outcomes. Readers should send their comments on this paper to: BhaskarNath@aol.com within 3 months of publication of this issue.     

Association of plutonium with sediments from the Ob and Yenisey Rivers and Estuaries

The present study applied sequential extraction techniques to investigate the binding and mobility of plutonium (Pu) in sediments from the rivers and estuaries of the Ob and Yenisey. As a study site, the Ob and Yenisey are particularly interesting as both rivers have weapons-grade Pu sources in their catchment areas, including the Russian Pu production and reprocessing plants at Mayak, Tomsk-7 and Krashnoyarsk, and the Semipalantinsk nuclear weapons testing site in Kazakhstan. Plutonium activity and ²⁴⁰Pu/²³⁹Pu ratios were determined using accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS). Sequential extractions showed that between 47 and 80% of the Pu in Yenisey River sediments and 35–53% of the Pu in soils around the Techa River are mobilized with weak oxidising agents, which can indicate that Pu is bound to organic material. In contrast, Pu in Ob and Yenisey Estuarine sediments was more strongly bound, with 60–100% being found in the HNO₃-extractable fraction. This change in speciation could reflect either that Pu bound to organic material in the Techa and Yenisey River sediments becomes more fixed to the sediments with time, or that organic-bound Pu is mobilized and released to the water when the sediments encounter the more saline water of the Ob and Yenisey estuaries. In general, ²⁴⁰Pu/²³⁹Pu ratios were relatively consistent between different extraction fractions, although, in whole sediments, an increase in ratio was observed with distance from the source. This reflects the increased influence of weapon fallout from catchment runoff within the river systems, as compared to the weapons-grade sources close to the production and reprocessing plants. Knowledge of Pu speciation in the Ob and Yenisey Rivers, and the processes controlling its behaviour in estuarine systems, can improve predictions of its transfer and subsequent environmental impact to Arctic Seas.     

Contaminants in fish tissue from US lakes and reservoirs: a national probabilistic study

An unequal probability design was used to develop national estimates for 268 persistent, bioaccumulative, and toxic chemicals in fish tissue from lakes and reservoirs of the conterminous United States (excluding the Laurentian Great Lakes and Great Salt Lake). Predator (fillet) and bottom-dweller (whole body) composites were collected from 500 lakes selected randomly from the target population of 147,343 lakes in the lower 48 states. Each of these composite types comprised nationally representative samples whose results were extrapolated to the sampled population of an estimated 76,559 lakes for predators and 46,190 lakes for bottom dwellers. Mercury and PCBs were detected in all fish samples. Dioxins and furans were detected in 81% and 99% of predator and bottom-dweller samples, respectively. Cumulative frequency distributions showed that mercury concentrations exceeded the EPA 300 ppb mercury fish tissue criterion at nearly half of the lakes in the sampled population. Total PCB concentrations exceeded a 12 ppb human health risk-based consumption limit at nearly 17% of lakes, and dioxins and furans exceeded a 0.15 ppt (toxic equivalent or TEQ) risk-based threshold at nearly 8% of lakes in the sampled population. In contrast, 43 target chemicals were not detected in any samples. No detections were reported for nine organophosphate pesticides, one PCB congener, 16 polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, or 17 other semivolatile organic chemicals.     

Preliminary evidence of a decline in perfluorooctanesulfonate (PFOS) and perfluorooctanoate (PFOA) concentrations in American Red Cross blood donors

The purpose of this pilot study was to determine whether perfluorooctanesulfonate (PFOS,C(8)F(17)SO(3)(-)) and perfluorooctanoate (PFOA,C(7)F(15)CO(2)(-)) concentrations in American Red Cross blood donors from Minneapolis-St. Paul, Minnesota have declined after the 2000-2002 phase-out of perfluorooctanesulfonyl-fluoride (POSF, C(8)F(17)SO(2)F)-based materials by the primary global manufacturer, 3M Company. Forty donor plasma samples, categorized by age and sex, were collected in 2005, and PFOS and PFOA concentrations were compared to 100 (non-paired) donor serum samples collected in 2000 from the same general population that were analyzed at the time using ion-pair extraction methods with tetrahydroperfluorooctanesulfonate as an internal standard. Eleven of the 100 samples originally collected were reanalyzed with present study methods that involved (13)C- labeled PFOA spiked into the donor samples, original samples, control human plasma, and the calibration curve prior to extraction, and was used as a surrogate to monitor extraction efficiency. Quantification was performed by high performance liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry methods. Among the 100 serum samples analyzed for PFOS, the geometric mean was 33.1 ng ml(-1) (95% CI 29.8-36.7) in 2000 compared to 15.1 ng ml(-1) (95% CI 13.3-17.1) in 2005 (p<0.0001) for the 40 donor plasma samples. The geometric mean concentration for PFOA was 4.5 ng ml(-1) (95% CI 4.1-5.0) in 2000 compared to 2.2 ng ml(-1) (95% CI 1.9-2.6) in 2005 (p<0.0001). The decrease was consistent across donors' age and sex. To confirm these preliminary findings, additional sub-sets of year 2000 samples will be analyzed, and a much larger biomonitoring study of other locations is planned.     

Teaching adolescents safe driving and passenger behaviors: effectiveness of the You Hold the Key Teen Driving Countermeasure

PROBLEM: Unsafe driving and passenger behaviors place teens at increased risk for fatal and nonfatal crashes. This study evaluated the short-and long-term efficacy of the You Hold the Key (YHTK) Teen Driving Countermeasure. METHOD: A two-page survey was completed by high school students at pretest, posttest, and long-term (6-month) posttest. RESULTS: YHTK was associated with significant immediate and long-term improvements in teen seatbelt use, safe driving, and perceived confidence in preventing drunk driving. Compared to pretests, students at immediate and long-term posttest more frequently wore seatbelts when driving or riding, required passengers to wear seatbelts, and limited the number of passengers to the number of seatbelts in the vehicle. Students were more likely at both posttests to avoid drinking and driving and to say no to riding with a friend who had been drinking. SUMMARY: YHTK was associated with increases in safe teen driving and passenger behaviors. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: Success of YHTK is most notably due to its comprehensive nature. Future programs should consider comprehensive strategies when attempting to modify teen behaviors.     

Genetic differentiation in Sargassum polyceratium (Fucales: Phaeophyceae) around the island of Curaçao (Netherlands Antilles)

The seaweed Sargassum polyceratium Montagne inhabits a broad spectrum of subtidal and intertidal habitats. Genetic diversity and spatial genetic structure were examined within and among 12 stands using random amplified polymorphic DNA (RAPD) phenotypes. Data were analyzed using analysis of molecular variance (AMOVA) and Shannon's information measure. In both analyses, 60-75% of the variation occurred within stands and 25-40% between stands. These values are consistent with out-crossing, high-dispersal species. Significant differentiation was found among bays ca. 25 km apart (Shannon's G'_st averaged 0.37 and pairwise AMOVA K_st values averaged 0.272) and among stands 150-200 m apart within bays (AMOVA K_st values averaged 0.149). Effects of shore (windward vs. leeward), depth, and bay on population structure were tested. These analyses revealed that the factor depth is confounded with shore, and that bays show significant differentiation from each other but are not completely isolated from one another. Mantel tests for differentiation-by-distance were significant along both sides of the island but stronger along the windward side. A neighbor-joining analysis of genetic distances among stands showed that the effects of currents around both tips of the island were especially important for shallow populations. For S. polyceratium, depth and bay promote population differentiation along shores, yet dispersal around the tips of the island simultaneously connects these populations to varying degrees. This study highlights the importance of investigating the relative contribution of habitat factorsin relation to island-scale population structure.     

Systematic evaluation of dissolved lead sorption losses to particulate syringe filter materials

Distinguishing between soluble and particulate lead in drinking water is useful in understanding the mechanism of lead release and identifying remedial action. Typically, particulate lead is defined as the amount of lead removed by a 0.45-μm filter. Unfortunately, there is little guidance regarding selection of filter membrane material and little consideration to the possibility of the sorption of dissolved lead to the filter. The objective of this work was to examine the tendency of 0.45-μm syringe filter materials to adsorb lead. Tests were performed with water containing 40 and 24 μg/L soluble lead at pH 7 buffered with 50 mg C/L dissolved inorganic concentration (DIC). The amounts of lead sorbed greatly varied by filter, and only two filter types, polypropylene and mixed cellulose esters, performed well and are recommended. Great care must be taken in choosing a filter when filtering soluble lead and interpreting filter results.     

Development of visibility forecasting modeling framework for the Lower Fraser Valley of British Columbia using Canada’s Regional Air Quality Deterministic Prediction System

Visibility degradation, one of the most noticeable indicators of poor air quality, can occur despite relatively low levels of particulate matter when the risk to human health is low. The availability of timely and reliable visibility forecasts can provide a more comprehensive understanding of the anticipated air quality conditions to better inform local jurisdictions and the public. This paper describes the development of a visibility forecasting modeling framework, which leverages the existing air quality and meteorological forecasts from Canada’s operational Regional Air Quality Deterministic Prediction System (RAQDPS) for the Lower Fraser Valley of British Columbia. A baseline model (GM-IMPROVE) was constructed using the revised IMPROVE algorithm based on unprocessed forecasts from the RAQDPS. Three additional prototypes (UMOS-HYB, GM-MLR, GM-RF) were also developed and assessed for forecast performance of up to 48 hr lead time during various air quality and meteorological conditions. Forecast performance was assessed by examining their ability to provide both numerical and categorical forecasts in the form of 1-hr total extinction and Visual Air Quality Ratings (VAQR), respectively. While GM-IMPROVE generally overestimated extinction more than twofold, it had skill in forecasting the relative species contribution to visibility impairment, including ammonium sulfate and ammonium nitrate. Both statistical prototypes, GM-MLR and GM-RF, performed well in forecasting 1-hr extinction during daylight hours, with correlation coefficients (R) ranging from 0.59 to 0.77. UMOS-HYB, a prototype based on postprocessed air quality forecasts without additional statistical modeling, provided reasonable forecasts during most daylight hours. In terms of categorical forecasts, the best prototype was approximately 75 to 87% correct, when forecasting for a condensed three-category VAQR. A case study, focusing on a poor visual air quality yet low Air Quality Health Index episode, illustrated that the statistical prototypes were able to provide timely and skillful visibility forecasts with lead time up to 48 hr.

Implications: This study describes the development of a visibility forecasting modeling framework, which leverages the existing air quality and meteorological forecasts from Canada’s operational Regional Air Quality Deterministic Prediction System. The main applications include tourism and recreation planning, input into air quality management programs, and educational outreach. Visibility forecasts, when supplemented with the existing air quality and health based forecasts, can assist jurisdictions to anticipate the visual air quality impacts as perceived by the public, which can potentially assist in formulating the appropriate air quality bulletins and recommendations.     

Public participation in municipal solid waste source-separated collection in Guilin,China: status and influencing factors

Currently, China is facing critical problems regarding the management of municipal solid waste (MSW). The failure of existing pilot programs in implementing MSW source-separated collection highlights the need to analyze the factors significantly influencing public participation in this activity. To this end, a comprehensive analysis of MSW source-separated collection in Guilin, which is representative of wider areas located in inland China and with a GDP around the national average, was conducted. The research consisted of in-person interviews involving a questionnaire and theoretical analyses in terms of public perception, public awareness, public attitude, and willingness to pay. The analytical results identify the status of waste source-separated collection and influencing factors in implementation, and provides exercisable suggestions for decision makers in both China and more generally in industrializing countries to design promotion programs and education campaigns.