Assessment of Bioenergy Cropping Scenarios for the Boone River Watershed in North Central Iowa,United States

Several biofuel cropping scenarios were evaluated with an improved version of Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) as part of the CenUSA Bioenergy consortium for the Boone River Watershed (BRW), which drains about 2,370 km² in north central Iowa. The adoption of corn stover removal, switchgrass, and/or Miscanthus biofuel cropping systems was simulated to assess the impact of cellulosic biofuel production on pollutant losses. The stover removal results indicate removal of 20 or 50% of corn stover in the BRW would have negligible effects on streamflow and relatively minor or negligible effects on sediment and nutrient losses, even on higher sloped cropland. Complete cropland conversion into switchgrass or Miscanthus, resulted in reductions of streamflow, sediment, nitrate, and other pollutants ranging between 23‐99%. The predicted nitrate reductions due to Miscanthus adoption were over two times greater compared to switchgrass, with the largest impacts occurring for tile‐drained cropland. Targeting of switchgrass or Miscanthus on cropland ≥2% slope or ≥7% slope revealed a disproportionate amount of sediment and sediment‐bound nutrient reductions could be obtained by protecting these relatively small areas of higher sloped cropland. Overall, the results indicate that all biofuel cropping systems could be effectively implemented in the BRW, with the most robust approach being corn stover removal adopted on tile‐drained cropland in combination with a perennial biofuel crop on higher sloped landscapes. Editor's note : This paper is part of the featured series on SWAT Applications for Emerging Hydrologic and Water Quality Challenges. See the February 2017 issue for the introduction and background to the series.     

Identifying sources of fecal contamination inexpensively with targeted sampling and bacterial source tracking

Most bacterial source tracking (BST) methods are too expensive for most communities to afford. We developed targeted sampling as a prelude to BST to reduce these costs. We combined targeted sampling with three inexpensive BST methods, Enterococcus speciation, detection of the esp gene, and fluorometry, to confirm the sources of fecal contamination to beaches on Georgia's Jekyll and Sea Islands during calm and stormy weather conditions. For Jekyll Island, the most likely source of contamination was bird feces because the percentage of Ent. faecalis was high (30%) and the esp gene was not detected. For the Sea Island beach during calm conditions, the most likely sources of fecal contamination were leaking sewer lines and wildlife feces. The leaking sewer lines were confirmed with fluorometry and detection of the esp gene. For the Sea Island beach during stormflow conditions, the most likely sources of fecal contamination were wildlife feces and runoff discharging from two county-maintained pipes. For the pipes, the most likely source of contamination was bird feces because the percentage of Ent. faecalis was high (30%) and the esp gene was not detected. Sediments were also a reservoir of fecal enterococci for both Jekyll and Sea Islands. Combining targeted sampling with two or more BST methods identified sources of fecal contamination quickly, easily, and inexpensively. This combination was the first time targeted sampling was conducted during stormy conditions, and the first time targeted sampling was combined with enterococcal speciation, detection of the esp gene, and fluorometry.     

Isotopic evidence of nitrate sources and denitrification in the Mississippi River, Illinois

Anthropogenic nitrate (NO3-) within the Mississippi-Atchafalaya River basin and discharge to the Gulf of Mexico has been linked to serious environmental problems. The sources of this NO3- have been estimated by others using mass balance methods; however, there is considerable uncertainty in these estimates. Part of the uncertainty is the degree of denitrification that the NO3- has undergone. The isotopic composition of NO3- in the Mississippi River adjacent to Illinois and tile drain (subsurface drain) discharge in agricultural areas of east-central Illinois was examined using N and O isotopes to help identify the major sources of NO3- and assess the degree of denitrification in the samples. The isotopic evidence suggests that most of the NO3- in the river is primarily derived from synthetic fertilizers and soil organic N, which is consistent with published estimates of N inputs to the Mississippi River. The 1:2 relationship between delta18O and delta15N also indicate that, depending on sample location and season, NO3- in the river and tile drains has undergone significant denitrification, ranging from about 0 to 55%. The majority of the denitrification appears to have occurred before discharge into the Mississippi River.     

Identifying Change-Points in Biological Sequences via Sequential Importance Sampling

The genomes of complex organisms, including the human genome, are highly structured. This structure takes the form of segmental patterns of variation in various properties and may be caused by the division of genomes into regions of distinct function, by the contingent evolutionary processes that gave rise to genomes, or by a combination of both. Whatever the cause, identifying the change-points between segments is potentially important, as a means of discovering the functional components of a genome, understanding the evolutionary processes involved, and fully describing genomic architecture. One property of genomes that is known to display a segmental pattern of variation is GC content. The GC content of a portion of DNA is the proportion of GC pairs that it contains. Sharp changes in GC content can be observed in human and other genomes. Such change-points may be the boundaries of functional elements or may play a structural role. We model genome sequences as a multiple change-point process, that is, a process in which sequential data are separated into segments by an unknown number of change-points, with each segment supposed to have been generated by a different process. We consider a Sequential Importance Sampling approach to change-point modeling using Monte Carlo simulation to find estimates of change-points as well as parameters of the process on each segment. Numerical experiments illustrate the effectiveness of the approach. We obtain estimates for the locations of change-points in artificially generated sequences and compare the accuracy of these estimates to those obtained via Markov chain Monte Carlo and a well-known method, IsoFinder. We also provide examples with real data sets to illustrate the usefulness of this method.     

Seasonal changes in the diet of a critically endangered seabird and the importance of trawling discards

Pelagic seabirds obtain food from oceans where the availability of their prey changes rapidly both seasonally and spatially. Here, we investigated changes in the trophic habits of the critically endangered Balearic shearwater (Puffinus mauretanicus) through the breeding season and tested for dietary differences between sexes and age classes. We analysed δ¹⁵N and δ¹³C values in blood of adults during the pre-incubation, incubation and chick-rearing periods and of their chicks. Using a two-isotope mixing model, we estimated dietary contributions based on isotope values from potential prey species which included small pelagic species available naturally and demersal fish species available only from trawling discards. Balearic shearwaters showed clear isotopic and dietary variation through the breeding season. During pre-incubation, breeding adults appeared to exploit demersal fish, whereas during the incubation and chick-rearing period, they fed mainly on pelagic anchovies (Engraulis encrasicolus) and pilchards (Sardina pilchardus). Similarly, chicks were fed mainly with anchovies, a resource with a high energetic value. This variation in the dietary habits of adult shearwaters during the breeding season was probably related to both natural and fishery-induced seasonal changes in the availability of potential prey species within their main feeding grounds. However, changes in the nutritional requirements of the shearwaters could also play an important role. Indeed, diet differed between sexes during pre-incubation: females fed less on trawling discards and more on small pelagic fish than males. This sexual segregation in diet could be the consequence of higher nutritional requirements of females during this period. Our study reveals the differential importance of both trawling discards and small pelagic fish species for a pelagic seabird depending on the breeding period and illustrates the importance of considering the entire breeding season when making inferences about the importance of specific prey in seabird dietary studies.     

BRACKISH GROUNDWATER DESALINATION: A COMMUNITY'S SOLUTION TO WATER SUPPLY AND AQUIFER PROTECTION1

The City of Cape May, New Jersey, draws its primary water supply from the Cohansey Aquifer, a unit serving residential, community, and industrial users throughout the Coastal Plain. By the year 2000, projected population growth will impose a peak water demand beyond available supplies. In addition, regional over-pumping threatens the Cohansey with saltwater intrusion, placing the city wells at risk by 1998. In the early-to mid 1990s, three broad categories of water-supply alternatives were evaluated by regional, state, and federal agencies — additional pumping from the Cohansey, conjunctive use of the Cohansey with other aquifers, and desalination of brackish groundwater. An approach was adopted in 1996 which derives up to 2 MGD from desalination of brackish groundwater, with the remaining peak demand satisfied by short-term pumpage from existing wells in the Cohansey. The first of two wells has been completed, yielding 1.4 MGD of brackish groundwater. Similar performance from the second well will exceed the design goal. When the initial system comes on line during the summer of 1998, New Jersey will have its first public water supply derived from desalinated groundwater. The use of desalinated groundwater balances competing demands for water resources in the southern Cape Region of New Jersey, allowing continued economic growth while reducing human impacts on a threatened aquifer.     

Predictions of U.K. regulated power station contributions to regional air pollution and deposition: a model comparison exercise

Contributions of the emissions from a U.K. regulated fossil-fuel power station to regional air pollution and deposition are estimated using four air quality modeling systems for the year 2003. The modeling systems vary in complexity and emphasis in the way they treat atmospheric and chemical processes, and include the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling system in its versions 4.6 and 4.7, a nested modeling system that combines long- and short-range impacts (referred to as TRACK-ADMS [Trajectory Model with Atmospheric Chemical Kinetics-Atmospheric Dispersion Modelling System]), and the Fine Resolution Atmospheric Multi-pollutant Exchange (FRAME) model. An evaluation of the baseline calculations against U.K. monitoring network data is performed. The CMAQ modeling system version 4.6 data set is selected as the reference data set for the model footprint comparison. The annual mean air concentration and total deposition footprints are summarized for each modeling system. The footprints of the power station emissions can account for a significant fraction of the local impacts for some species (e.g., more than 50% for SO2 air concentration and non-sea-salt sulfur deposition close to the source) for 2003. The spatial correlation and the coefficient of variation of the root mean square error (CVRMSE) are calculated between each model footprint and that calculated by the CMAQ modeling system version 4.6. The correlation coefficient quantifies model agreement in terms of spatial patterns, and the CVRMSE measures the magnitude of the difference between model footprints. Possible reasons for the differences between model results are discussed. Finally, implications and recommendations for the regulatory assessment of the impact of major industrial sources using regional air quality modeling systems are discussed in the light of results from this case study.     

Estimating the value of foresight: aggregate analysis of natural hazard mitigation benefits and costs

Hazard mitigation planners claim that foresighted present actions and investments produce significant future benefits. However, they have difficulty in supporting their claims, since previously their evidence typically was derived from individual case studies. Constituents and decision makers are often sceptical, believing that individual cases are either inapplicable to their situation or non-randomly selected to support a particular view. Planners need objective evidence based on a large body of experience to support the case for mitigation. Such is the unique contribution of a recent U.S. study that found that each dollar spent in three federal natural hazard mitigation grant programs (the Hazard Mitigation Grant Program, Project Impact, and the Flood Mitigation Assistance Program) saves society an average of $4 in future avoided losses. Complementing the aggregate benefit-cost analysis with community-based evaluations, the study yielded insights on how planners can improve long-term community resilience in the face of extreme events. Valuable lessons for mitigation planners and policy makers emerged: the need to consider a wide variety of losses, the importance of mixing qualitative with quantitative analysis, the value of averaging results over a large number of projects, and the need to more explicitly address social issues and data collection in order to reduce vulnerability and enhance resilience to cope with twenty-first century hazards.