Methodology for consequence analysis of LNG releases at deepwater port facilities

A methodology to perform consequence analysis associated with liquefied natural gas (LNG) for a deepwater port (DWP) facility has been presented. Analytical models used to describe the unconfined spill dynamics of LNG are discussed. How to determine the thermal hazard associated with a potential pool fire involving spilled LNG is also presented. Another hazard associated with potential releases of LNG is the dispersion of the LNG vapor. An approach using computational fluid dynamics tools (CFD) is presented. The CFD dispersion methodology is benchmarked against available test data. Using the proposed analysis approach provides estimates of hazard zones associated with newly proposed LNG deepwater ports and their potential impact to the public.     

Evaluating long-term trends in littoral benthic macroinvertebrate communities of lakes recovering from acid deposition

The Mann–Kendall test has been proposed as a nonparametric method to evaluate trends in long-term water quality datasets with missing values, serial correlation, and non-normality. However, this test has rarely been used to evaluate long-term trends in biological data. In this study, we used the Mann–Kendall test to evaluate trends in 15?years of data on benthic macroinvertebrate communities from 17 Precambrian Shield lakes. We also used the van Belle and Hughes test of trend homogeneity to assess whether common among-lake temporal trends existed. We assumed that evidence of a common regional trend among lakes would support the hypothesis of long-term biological recovery from past acidification. We found decreasing proportions of Chironomidae and increasing proportions of Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera (EPT) in both single-lake and multi-lake trend analysis. Moreover, six of the nine lakes with significant trends in more than one benthos metric displayed a significant decrease in Chironomidae and increase in EPT concurrently, indicating a shift towards more acid-sensitive taxa. Weak trends in several of the biological metrics indicated that recovery in these lakes has been impeded. Results of this study indicate that the Mann–Kendall and van Belle and Hughes trend tests are useful statistical tools to evaluate long-term patterns in biological data.     

Assessing model structure uncertainty through an analysis of system feedback and Bayesian networks.

Ecological predictions and management strategies are sensitive to variability in model parameters as well as uncertainty in model structure. Systematic analysis of the effect of alternative model structures, however, is often beyond the resources typically available to ecologists, ecological risk practitioners, and natural resource managers. Many of these practitioners are also using Bayesian belief networks based on expert opinion to fill gaps in empirical information. The practical application of this approach can be limited by the need to populate large conditional probability tables and the complexity associated with ecological feedback cycles. In this paper, we describe a modeling approach that helps solve these problems by embedding a qualitative analysis of sign directed graphs into the probabilistic framework of a Bayesian belief network. Our approach incorporates the effects of feedback on the model's response to a sustained change in one or more of its parameters, provides an efficient means to explore the effect of alternative model structures, mitigates the cognitive bias in expert opinion, and is amenable to stakeholder input. We demonstrate our approach by examining two published case studies: a host-parasitoid community centered on a nonnative, agricultural pest of citrus cultivars and the response of an experimental lake mesocosm to nutrient input. Observations drawn from these case studies are used to diagnose alternative model structures and to predict the system's response following management intervention.     

Bioconcentration of nonylphenol in fathead minnows (Pimephales promelas)

Bioconcentration of p-nonylphenol (NP) by fathead minnows was determined under laboratory conditions. Fish were exposed continuously for 42 days to 0.33, 0.93 and 2.36 μgNP/l in a flow-through system. NP was Soxhlet extracted from whole fish homogenates with dichloromethane (DCM). The resulting extract was concentrated and bulk lipids removed by gel permeation and silica-gel chromatography. Compounds were identified and quantified by reverse-phase high-pressure liquid chromatography (RP-HPLC) with fluorescence detection. Mass spectrometry was used for verification of peak assignments. Bioconcentration factors (BCFs) ranged from 245 to 380.     

Management of catchments for the protection of water resources: drawing on the New York City watershed experience

Primary purposes for catchment management are to establish a cost-effective allocation and use of its water resources and to most effectively apply measures to protect the quantity and quality of the water produced by the catchment. For the latter purpose, diffuse sources of contamination are the greatest difficulty. Diffuse (or non-point source) water pollution poses challenges for public policy and requires innovative management approaches. Solutions ultimately require behavioural change and a broad societal response, and must be flexible and adaptive to stochastic catchment conditions and to long-term trends. Internationally, new models of governance for difficult land and water resource management problems are developing. This paper reviews the characteristics of ‘wicked’ environmental management problems and the specific policy challenges posed by diffuse water pollution. A framework for action is derived and compared to the activities and outcomes of water protection in the New York City watershed. Successes to date in this case indicate that because land management and diffuse sources of pollution have a local basis, protection of water at source necessitates the fostering of local instruments for an adaptive and twin-track strategy of applied research and stakeholder deliberation, supported by multi-level partnerships and an enabling regulatory environment. Although long running, evidence from this case alone is insufficient to establish whether potential trade-offs between water protection and the economic vitality of catchment communities can be fully resolved.     

Analytical solution to evaluate salt precipitation during CO2 injection in saline aquifers

Carbon dioxide sequestration in deep saline aquifers is a means of reducing anthropogenic atmospheric emissions of CO₂. Among various mechanisms, CO₂ can be trapped in saline aquifers by dissolution in the formation water. Vaporization of water occurs along with the dissolution of CO₂. Vaporization can cause salt precipitation, which reduces porosity and impairs permeability of the reservoir in the vicinity of the wellbore, and can lead to reduction in injectivity. The amount of salt precipitation and the region in which it occurs may be important in CO₂ storage operations if salt precipitation significantly reduces injectivity. Here we develop an analytical model, as a simple and efficient tool to predict the amount of salt precipitation over time and space. This model is particularly useful at high injection velocities, when viscous forces dominate.First, we develop a model which treats the vaporization of water and dissolution of CO₂ in radial geometry. Next, the model is used to predict salt precipitation. The combined model is then extended to evaluate the effect of salt precipitation on permeability in terms of a time-dependent skin factor. Finally, the analytical model is corroborated by application to a specific problem with an available numerical solution, where a close agreement between the solutions is observed. We use the results to examine the effect of assumptions and approximations made in the development of the analytical solution. For cases studied, salt saturation was a few percent. The loss in injectivity depends on the degree of reduction of formation permeability with increased salt saturation. For permeability-reduction models considered in this work, the loss in injectivity was not severe. However, one limitation of the model is that it neglects capillary and gravity forces, and these forces might increase salt precipitation at the bottom of formation particularly when injection rate is low.     

CCA-treated wood disposed in landfills and life-cycle trade-offs with waste-to-energy and MSW landfill disposal

Chromated copper arsenate (CCA)-treated wood is a preservative treated wood construction product that grew in use in the 1970s for both residential and industrial applications. Although some countries have banned the use of the product for some applications, others have not, and the product continues to enter the waste stream from construction, demolition and remodeling projects. CCA-treated wood as a solid waste is managed in various ways throughout the world. In the US, CCA-treated wood is disposed primarily within landfills; however some of the wood is combusted in waste-to-energy (WTE) facilities. In other countries, the predominant disposal option for wood, sometimes including CCA-treated wood, is combustion for the production of energy. This paper presents an estimate of the quantity of CCA-treated wood entering the disposal stream in the US, as well as an examination of the trade-offs between landfilling and WTE combustion of CCA-treated wood through a life-cycle assessment and decision support tool (MSW DST). Based upon production statistics, the estimated life span and the phaseout of CCA-treated wood, recent disposal projections estimate the peak US disposal rate to occur in 2008, at 9.7 million m(3). CCA-treated wood, when disposed with construction and demolition (C&D) debris and municipal solid waste (MSW), has been found to increase arsenic and chromium concentrations in leachate. For this reason, and because MSW landfills are lined, MSW landfills have been recommended as a preferred disposal option over unlined C&D debris landfills. Between landfilling and WTE for the same mass of CCA-treated wood, WTE is more expensive (nearly twice the cost), but when operated in accordance with US Environmental Protection Agency (US EPA) regulations, it produces energy and does not emit fossil carbon emissions. If the wood is managed via WTE, less landfill area is required, which could be an influential trade-off in some countries. Although metals are concentrated in the ash in the WTE scenario, the MSW landfill scenario releases a greater amount of arsenic from leachate in a more dilute form. The WTE scenario releases more chromium from the ash on an annual basis. The WTE facility and subsequent ash disposal greatly concentrates the chromium, often oxidizing it to the more toxic and mobile Cr(VI) form. Elevated arsenic and chromium concentrations in the ash leachate may increase leachate management costs.     

Application of the US decision support tool for materials and waste management

The US Environmental Protection Agency (US EPA) launched the Resource Conservation Challenge (RCC) in 2002 to help reduce waste and move towards more sustainable resource consumption. The objective of the RCC is to help communities, industries, and the public think in terms of materials management rather than waste disposal. Reducing cost, finding more efficient and effective strategies to manage municipal waste, and thinking in terms of materials management requires a holistic approach that considers life-cycle environmental tradeoffs. The US EPA's National Risk Management Research Laboratory has led the development of a municipal solid waste decision support tool (MSW-DST). The computer software can be used to calculate life-cycle environmental tradeoffs and full costs of different waste management or materials recovery programs. The environmental methodology is based on the use of life-cycle assessment and the cost methodology is based on the use of full-cost accounting. Life-cycle inventory (LCI) environmental impacts and costs are calculated from the point of collection, handling, transport, treatment, and disposal. For any materials that are recovered for recycling, offsets are calculated to reflect potential emissions savings from use of virgin materials. The use of the MSW-DST provides a standardized format and consistent basis to compare alternatives. This paper provides an illustration of how the MSW-DST can be used by evaluating ten management strategies for a hypothetical medium-sized community to compare the life-cycle environmental and cost tradeoffs. The LCI results from the MSW-DST are then used as inputs into another US EPA tool, the Tool for the reduction and assessment of chemical and other environmental impacts, to convert the LCI results into impact indicators. The goal of this paper is to demonstrate how the MSW-DST can be used to identify and balance multiple criteria (costs and environmental impacts) when evaluating options for materials and waste management. This type of approach is needed in identifying strategies that lead to reduced waste and more sustainable resource consumption. This helps to meet the goals established in the US EPA's Resource Conservation Challenge.     

Comparison of the industrial source complex and AERMOD dispersion models: case study for human health risk assessment

Air quality models are typically used to predict the fate and transport of air emissions from industrial sources to comply with federal and state regulatory requirements and environmental standards, as well as to determine pollution control requirements. For many years, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) widely used the Industrial Source Complex (ISC) model because of its broad applicability to multiple source types. Recently, EPA adopted a new rule that replaces ISC with AERMOD, a state-of-the-practice air dispersion model, in many air quality impact assessments. This study compared the two models as well as their enhanced versions that incorporate the Plume Rise Model Enhancements (PRIME) algorithm. PRIME takes into account the effects of building downwash on plume dispersion. The comparison used actual point, area, and volume sources located on two separate facilities in conjunction with site-specific terrain and meteorological data. The modeled maximum total period average ground-level air concentrations were used to calculate potential health effects for human receptors. The results show that the switch from ISC to AERMOD and the incorporation of the PRIME algorithm tend to generate lower concentration estimates at the point of maximum ground-level concentration. However, the magnitude of difference varies from insignificant to significant depending on the types of the sources and the site-specific conditions. The differences in human health effects, predicted using results from the two models, mirror the concentrations predicted by the models.