Reflections on the use of Bayesian belief networks for adaptive management

A broad range of tools are available for integrated water resource management (IWRM). In the EU research project NeWater, a hypothesis exists that IWRM cannot be realised unless current management regimes undergo a transition toward adaptive management (AM). This includes a structured process of learning, dealing with complexity, uncertainty etc. We assume that it is no longer enough for managers and tool researchers to understand the complexity and uncertainty of the outer natural system-the environment. It is just as important, to understand what goes on in the complex and uncertain participatory processes between the water managers, different stakeholders, authorities and researchers when a specific tool and process is used for environmental management. The paper revisits a case study carried out 2001-2004 where the tool Bayesian networks (BNs) was tested for groundwater management with full stakeholder involvement. With the participation of two researchers (the authors) and two water managers previously involved in the case study, a qualitative interview was prepared and carried out in June 2006. The aim of this ex-post evaluation was to capture and explore the water managers' experience with Bayesian belief networks when used for integrated and adaptive water management and provide a narrative approach for tool enhancement.     

Tracking the prevalence of rollover protective structures on U.S. farm tractors: 1993, 2001, and 2004

Problem

Between 1992 and 2005, 1412 workers on farms died from tractor overturns. A Rollover Protective Structure (ROPS) is a proven intervention to reduce overturn deaths. However, farm characteristics that are associated with the adoption of ROPS are not well understood.

Methods

ROPS prevalence statistics were derived from National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH) surveys that tracked ROPS use on farms. Data were from the years 1993, 2001, and 2004.

Results

In 1993, 38% of tractors were equipped with ROPS. This increased to 51% by 2004. ROPS prevalence rates were higher on farms in the Southern region of the United States, on farms where the operator was 25-34 years old, and on farms with $100,000 or more of farm sales. Low ROPS prevalence rates were associated with farm operators 65 years old or older and with farms with less than $10,000 of farm product sales.

Summary

The increase in ROPS prevalence between 1993 and 2004 has not been sufficient to decrease the rate of tractor overturn deaths on farms. Incentive programs targeting older farm operators and low-income farm operations are suggested to increase ROPS use on tractors.

Impact on Industry

The study provides farm characteristics associated with low ROPS prevalence rates. The results can be used to target farms for future ROPS promotion activities.     

Environmental evaluation for workplace violence in healthcare and social services

PROBLEM: Federal policy recommends environmental strategies as part of a comprehensive workplace violence program in healthcare and social services. The purpose of this project was to contribute specific, evidence-based guidance to the healthcare and social services employer communities regarding the use of environmental design to prevent violence. METHOD: A retrospective record review was conducted of environmental evaluations that were performed by an architect in two Participatory Action Research (PAR) projects for workplace violence prevention in 2000 and, in the second project in 2005. Ten facility environmental evaluation reports along with staff focus group reports from these facilities were analyzed to categorize environmental risk factors for Type II workplace violence. RESULTS: Findings were grouped according to their impact on access control, the ability to observe patients (natural surveillance), patient and worker safety (territoriality), and activity support. DISCUSSION: The environmental assessment findings reveal design and security issues that, if corrected, would improve safety and security of staff, patients, and visitors and reduce fear and unpredictability. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: Healthcare and social assistance employers can improve the effectiveness of violence prevention efforts by including an environmental assessment with complementary hazard controls.     

Montane Meadows as Indicators of Environmental Change

We used a time series of satellite multispectral imagery for mapping and monitoring six classes of montane meadows arrayed along a moisture gradient (from hydric to mesic to xeric). We hypothesized that mesic meadows would support the highest species diversity of plants, birds, and butterflies because they are more moderate environments. We also hypothesized that mesic meadows would exhibit the greatest seasonal and interannual variability in spectral response across years. Field sampling in each of the meadow types was conducted for plants, birds, and butterflies in 1997 and 1998. Mesic meadows supported the highest plant species diversity, but there was no significant difference in bird or butterfly species diversity among meadow types. These data show that it may be easier to detect significant differences in more species rich taxa (e.g., plants) than taxa that are represented by fewer species (e.g., butterflies and birds). Mesic meadows also showed the greatest seasonal and interannual variability in spectral response. Given the rich biodiversity of mesic montane meadows and their sensitivity to variations in temperature and moisture, they may be important to monitor in the context of environmental change     

Implications of simultaneity in a physical damage function

A modeler must often rely on highly simplified representations of complex physical systems when analyzing associated economic issues. Herein, we consider a management problem in which a bioeconomic system exhibits simultaneity in processes governing productivity and damage. In this case, it may benefit the producer to sacrifice productivity to reduce the costs associated with increased damage. We specify empirically a structural damage relationship that explains the biological process by which an invasive species damages a host and estimate the structural model and its reduced form with an exceptional dataset on infestation of olives by the olive fruit fly. We contrast the results of these models with the approach typically taken in the economic literature, which expresses damage as a function of pest density. The population-based approach introduces significantly greater bias into the individual grower's choice of damage-control inputs than estimates based on the structural model.     

Adoption and cuckoldry lead to alloparental care in the tessellated darter (Etheostoma olmstedi), a non-group-living species with no evidence of nest site limitation

While extensive empirical and theoretical work has focused on the evolution of costly cooperation (particularly in group-living species), less attention has been paid to more low-risk or immediately beneficial forms of cooperation. In some non-group-living darters, alloparental care (or allocare) by subordinates has been noted to result from by-product benefits as small territorial (subordinate) males adopt and provide care to the abandoned eggs of large territorial (dominant) males. In the tessellated darter (Etheostoma olmstedi), allocare also results from sneak fertilization. However, information on the rate of allocare by tessellated darters is contradictory: prior behavioral work suggested that it is very common, while a genetic examination showed males to primarily care for their own young. We found behavioral and genetic evidence of very high levels of allocare at our study location. The relative size of the assigned fathers of young to the alloparental male is consistent with the idea that initial allocare primarily results from sneak fertilization (“cuckoldry-based allocare”), but later allocare results from subordinate males caring at previously abandoned nests (“adoption-based allocare”). Larger males appeared to breed more frequently at different nests, but did not father more individual offspring than smaller males. Finally, low relatedness between abandoning and alloparenting males suggests that kin selection does not contribute to alloparental care. We discuss how variation in nest availability may explain the inconsistent findings of the rate of alloparental care in the tessellated darter, and how increased research in this and similar systems can expand our understanding of the evolution of cooperation.     

Induction of steroidal hydroxylase activity by plant defence compounds in the filamentous fungus Cochliobolus lunatus

We investigated the hypothesis that the endogenous role of the commercially important inducible steroid hydroxylase cytochrome P450s of fungi was in defense against plant toxophores/secondary metabolites. Two plant defense compounds, the aglycones tomatidine and solanidine, the steroidal glycoalkaloid alpha-tomatine and the triterpene saponin beta-escin were tested as inducers of 11beta/14alpha-steroid hydroxylase in the filamentous fungus Cochliobolus lunatus. The extracts of saponins from the roots of Primula veris and green oat leaves were also tested as inducers of 11beta/14alpha-hydroxylation activity in progesterone biotransformation with the same fungus. Induction of steroid hydroxylase and inhibition of activity in some cases support our hypothesis that their endogenous function is in biochemical defence against secondary metabolites. 4-Pregnene-3,11,20-trione was added as a substrate for biotransformation with C. lunatus. We isolated from culture broth 14alpha-hydroxy-4-pregnene-3,11,20-trione, and the hitherto unreported compounds, 7alpha,14alpha-dihydroxy-4-pregnene-3,11,20-trione and 7alpha-hydroxy-pregna-4,8(14)-diene-3,11,20-trione.     

Nitrogen fertilizer form and associated nitrate leaching from cool-season lawn turf

Various N fertilizer sources are available for lawn turf. Few field studies, however, have determined the losses of nitrate (NO(3)-N) from lawns receiving different formulations of N fertilizers. The objectives of this study were to determine the differences in NO(3)-N leaching losses among various N fertilizer sources and to ascertain when losses were most likely to occur. The field experiment was set out in a completely random design on a turf typical of the lawns in southern New England. Treatments consisted of four fertilizer sources with fast- and slow-release N formulations: (i) ammonium nitrate (AN), (ii) polymer-coated sulfur-coated urea (PCSCU), (iii) organic product, and (iv) a nonfertilized control. The experiment was conducted across three years and fertilized to supply a total of 147 kg N ha(-1) yr(-1). Percolate was collected with zero-tension lysimeters. Flow-weighted NO(3)-N concentrations were 4.6, 0.57, 0.31, and 0.18 mg L(-1) for AN, PCSCU, organic, and the control, respectively. After correcting for control losses, average annual NO(3)-N leaching losses as a percentage of N applied were 16.8% for AN, 1.7% for PCSCU, and 0.6% for organic. Results indicate that NO(3)-N leaching losses from lawn turf in southern New England occur primarily during the late fall through the early spring. To reduce the threat of NO(3)-N leaching losses, lawn turf fertilizers should be formulated with a larger percentage of slow-release N than soluble N.