Adaptation research has changed significantly in recent years as funders and researchers seek to encourage greater impact, ensure value for money and promote interdisciplinarity across the natural and social sciences. While these developments are inherently positive, they also bring fresh challenges. With this in mind, this paper presents an agenda for the next generation of climate adaptation research for development. The agenda is based on insights from a dialogue session held at the 2016 Adaptation Futures conference as well as drawing on the collective experience of the authors. We propose five key areas that need to be changed in order to meet the needs of future adaptation research, namely: increasing transparency and consultation in research design; encouraging innovation in the design and delivery of adaptation research programmes; demonstrating impact on the ground; addressing incentive structures; and promoting more effective brokering, knowledge management and learning. As new international funding initiatives start to take shape, we underscore the importance of learning from past experiences and scaling-up of successful innovations in research funding models.
Despite a large body of theory, few studies have directly assessed the effects of variation in population size on fitness components in natural populations of plants. We conducted studies on 10 populations of scarlet gilia, Ipomopsis aggregata , to assess the effects of population size and year-to-year variation in size on the relative fitness of plants. We showed that seed size and germination success are significantly reduced in small populations (those 100 flowering plants) of scarlet gilia. Plants from small populations are also more susceptible to environmental stress. When plants from small and large populations were subjected to an imposed stress (combined effects of transplanting and experimental clipping, simulating ungulate herbivory) in a common garden experiment, plants from small populations suffered higher mortality and were ultimately of smaller size than plants from large populations. In addition, experimental evidence indicates that observed fitness reductions are genetic, due to the effects of genetic drift and/or inbreeding depression. When pollen was introduced from distant populations into two small populations, seed mass and percentage of germination were bolstered, while pollen transferred into a large population had no significant effect. Year-to-year variation in population size and its effects on plant fitness are also discussed. In one small population, for example, a substantial increase in size from within did not introduce sufficient new (archived) genetic material to fully overcome the effects of inbreeding depression. 相似文献
Over the past few years, a great deal of interest has been focused on the use of remote sensing for resource management. This paper examines one of the most useful systems — Landsat. Included in this paper is a discussion of this remote-sensing technology, its application and its future as a tool for resources planning and management. 相似文献
Summary Live and stuffed male and female red-winged blackbirds (Agelaius phoeniceus) were presented to territorial males in order to study the repertoire organization of males during intersexual and intrasexual encounters. Territorial male red-winged blackbirds switched song types more frequently and sang more song types in response to presentation of a female stimulus than during control periods, but decreased their switching frequency when a male stimulus was presented. Switching frequency in response to the female stimulus was three times that in response to the male stimulus. These results support the hypothesis that song repertoires of male red-winged blackbirds evolved primarily in response to intersexual rather than intrasexual selection. They also suggest that male red-winged blackbirds have been selected to de-emphasize their song repertoires during encounters with conspecific males as a result of some as yet unidentified cost.
Offprint requests to: W.A. Searcy 相似文献
The geographic distribution of stream reaches with potential to support high-quality habitat for salmonids has bearing on the actual status of habitats and populations over broad spatial extents. As part of the Coastal Landscape Analysis and Modeling Study (CLAMS), we examined how salmon-habitat potential was distributed relative to current and future (+100 years) landscape characteristics in the Coastal Province of Oregon, USA. The intrinsic potential to provide high-quality rearing habitat was modeled for juvenile coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) and juvenile steelhead (O. mykiss) based on stream flow, valley constraint, and stream gradient. Land ownership, use, and cover were summarized for 100-m analysis buffers on either side of stream reaches with high intrinsic potential and in the overall area encompassing the buffers. Past management seems to have concentrated nonindustrial private ownership, agriculture, and developed uses adjacent to reaches with high intrinsic potential for coho salmon. Thus, of the area in coho salmon buffers, 45% is either nonforested or recently logged, but only 10% is in larger-diameter forests. For the area in steelhead buffers, 21% is either non-forested or recently logged while 20% is in larger-diameter forests. Older forests are most extensive on federal lands but are rare on private lands, highlighting the critical role for public lands in near-term salmon conservation. Agriculture and development are projected to remain focused near high-intrinsic-potential reaches for coho salmon, increasing the importance of effectively addressing nonpoint source pollution from these uses. Percentages of larger-diameter forests are expected to increase throughout the province, but the increase will be only half as much in coho salmon buffers as in steelhead buffers. Most of the increase is projected for public lands, where policies emphasize biodiversity protection. Results suggest that widespread recovery of coho salmon is unlikely unless habitat can be improved in high-intrinsic-potential reaches on private lands. Knowing where high-intrinsic-potential stream reaches occur relative to landscape characteristics can help in evaluating the current and future condition of freshwater habitat, explaining differences between species in population status and risk, and assessing the need for and feasibility of restoration. 相似文献
Summary The Beau Geste hypothesis proposes that song repertoires are advantageous in territory defense because nonterritorial males, who are prospecting for territories, use the number of song types they hear to assess the density of territorial males, and then avoid densely-settled areas. A territorial male can then inflate the apparent density of singers on his territory by singing several distinct song type. This hypothesis assumes (1) a positive correlation between the density of song types and the density of territorial males, and (2) a negative correlation between the rate of trespassing and the densities of both song types and territorial males. We studied the behavior of male red-winged blackbirds (Agelaius phoeniceus) and found support for the first, but not the second, assumption. Results showing a positive correlation between density of song types and density of territorial males show that the proposed method of density assessment is feasible in this species. However, we could find no support for the assumption that nonterritorial male red-winged blackbirds avoid densely settled areas. In contrast to the assumed negative correlation, rate of trespass per territory was not consistently correlated with male density, and trespass rate per unit area was positively correlated with male density. Further, these relationships were retained when we controlled statistically for the effects of territory quality. We conclude that prospecting male red-winged blackbirds to not attempt to avoid densely settled areas, and that, although they do avoid territories defended by many song types, they do not use song type density to assess the density of territorial males. It is thus unlikely that the Beau Geste hypothesis adequately accounts for the evolution of song repertoires in the red-winged blackbird. 相似文献
Although forest conservation activities, particularly in the tropics, offer significant potential for mitigating carbon (C)
emissions, these types of activities have faced obstacles in the policy arena caused by the difficulty in determining key
elements of the project cycle, particularly the baseline. A baseline for forest conservation has two main components: the
projected land-use change and the corresponding carbon stocks in applicable pools in vegetation and soil, with land-use change
being the most difficult to address analytically. In this paper we focus on developing and comparing three models, ranging
from relatively simple extrapolations of past trends in land use based on simple drivers such as population growth to more
complex extrapolations of past trends using spatially explicit models of land-use change driven by biophysical and socioeconomic
factors. The three models used for making baseline projections of tropical deforestation at the regional scale are: the Forest
Area Change (FAC) model, the Land Use and Carbon Sequestration (LUCS) model, and the Geographical Modeling (GEOMOD) model.
The models were used to project deforestation in six tropical regions that featured different ecological and socioeconomic
conditions, population dynamics, and uses of the land: (1) northern Belize; (2) Santa Cruz State, Bolivia; (3) Paraná State,
Brazil; (4) Campeche, Mexico; (5) Chiapas, Mexico; and (6) Michoacán, Mexico.
A comparison of all model outputs across all six regions shows that each model produced quite different deforestation baselines.
In general, the simplest FAC model, applied at the national administrative-unit scale, projected the highest amount of forest
loss (four out of six regions) and the LUCS model the least amount of loss (four out of five regions). Based on simulations
of GEOMOD, we found that readily observable physical and biological factors as well as distance to areas of past disturbance
were each about twice as important as either sociological/demographic or economic/infrastructure factors (less observable)
in explaining empirical land-use patterns.
We propose from the lessons learned, a methodology comprised of three main steps and six tasks can be used to begin developing
credible baselines. We also propose that the baselines be projected over a 10-year period because, although projections beyond
10 years are feasible, they are likely to be unrealistic for policy purposes. In the first step, an historic land-use change
and deforestation estimate is made by determining the analytic domain (size of the region relative to the size of proposed
project), obtaining historic data, analyzing candidate baseline drivers, and identifying three to four major drivers. In the
second step, a baseline of where deforestation is likely to occur–a potential land-use change (PLUC) map—is produced using
a spatial model such as GEOMOD that uses the key drivers from step one. Then rates of deforestation are projected over a 10-year
baseline period based on one of the three models. Using the PLUC maps, projected rates of deforestation, and carbon stock
estimates, baseline projections are developed that can be used for project GHG accounting and crediting purposes: The final
step proposes that, at agreed interval (e.g., about 10 years), the baseline assumptions about baseline drivers be re-assessed.
This step reviews the viability of the 10-year baseline in light of changes in one or more key baseline drivers (e.g., new
roads, new communities, new protected area, etc.). The potential land-use change map and estimates of rates of deforestation
could be re-done at the agreed interval, allowing the deforestation rates and changes in spatial drivers to be incorporated
into a defense of the existing baseline, or the derivation of a new baseline projection. 相似文献
ABSTRACTLessons from the literature on multi-stakeholder dialogue (MSD) that are relevant to the debate on climate engineering (CE) are examined. MSDs have been used to prod slow-to-develop intergovernmental regulatory processes on a range of transnational and global controversies. A CEMSD might push forward anticipatory governance of CE by promoting social learning, sharpening and legitimizing governance norms, and starting to arrange the political space for governance by states. However, significant challenges and risks are also identified, including questions about the ripeness of the issue for stakeholder dialogue; difficult trade-offs in the design of dialogues, particularly around issues of participation and knowledge-power; and inherent tensions in the various purposes a CEMSD might serve. Given these challenges, steps forward that would better prepare a space for legitimate and effective dialogue are recommended. 相似文献
Since volatile mold metabolites are used for the detection of mold growth in buildings, it was interesting to determine whether different indoor mold species show different affinity for the major components of wood, a common building material. Growth and volatile metabolites were studied when Aspergillus versicolor, Penicillium chrysogenum, and P. palitans were grown on laboratory substrates containing the major wood constituents cellulose, xylan and lignin. Microbial volatile organic compounds (MVOCs) were characterized by thermal desorption/gas chromatography/mass spectroscopy. Growth and volatile metabolites varied considerably and there appeared to be complementary substrate specificities for P. chrysogenum, and P. palitans grown on cellulose and xylan. The failure of A. versicolor to produce characteristic MVOCs when grown on media containing wood constituents suggests that systems using volatile metabolites to detect microbial growth in buildings may be fundamentally unreliable for the detection of this species. 相似文献