Can ocean acidification affect population dynamics of the barnacle Semibalanus balanoides at its southern range edge?

The global ocean and atmosphere are warming. There is increasing evidence suggesting that, in addition to other environmental factors, climate change is affecting species distributions and local population dynamics. Additionally, as a consequence of the growing levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), the oceans are taking up increasing amounts of this CO2, causing ocean pH to decrease (ocean acidification). The relative impacts of ocean acidification on population dynamics have yet to be investigated, despite many studies indicating that there will be at least a sublethal impact on many marine organisms, particularly key calcifying organisms. Using empirical data, we forced a barnacle (Semibalanus balanoides) population model to investigate the relative influence of sea surface temperature (SST) and ocean acidification on a population nearing the southern limit of its geographic distribution. Hindcast models were compared to observational data from Cellar Beach (southwestern United Kingdom). Results indicate that a declining pH trend (-0.0017 unit/yr), indicative of ocean acidification over the past 50 years, does not cause an observable impact on the population abundance relative to changes caused by fluctuations in temperature. Below the critical temperature (here T(crit) = 13.1 degrees C), pH has a more significant affect on population dynamics at this southern range edge. However, above this value, SST has the overriding influence. At lower SST, a decrease in pH (according to the National Bureau of Standards, pHNBs) from 8.2 to 7.8 can significantly decrease the population abundance. The lethal impacts of ocean acidification observed in experiments on early life stages reduce cumulative survival by approximately 25%, which again will significantly alter the population level at this southern limit. Furthermore, forecast predictions from this model suggest that combined acidification and warming cause this local population to die out 10 years earlier than would occur if there was only global warming and no concomitant decrease in pH.     

Multiple data sources improve DNA-based mark-recapture population estimates of grizzly bears.

A fundamental challenge to estimating population size with mark-recapture methods is heterogeneous capture probabilities and subsequent bias of population estimates. Confronting this problem usually requires substantial sampling effort that can be difficult to achieve for some species, such as carnivores. We developed a methodology that uses two data sources to deal with heterogeneity and applied this to DNA mark-recapture data from grizzly bears (Ursus arctos). We improved population estimates by incorporating additional DNA "captures" of grizzly bears obtained by collecting hair from unbaited bear rub trees concurrently with baited, grid-based, hair snag sampling. We consider a Lincoln-Petersen estimator with hair snag captures as the initial session and rub tree captures as the recapture session and develop an estimator in program MARK that treats hair snag and rub tree samples as successive sessions. Using empirical data from a large-scale project in the greater Glacier National Park, Montana, USA, area and simulation modeling we evaluate these methods and compare the results to hair-snag-only estimates. Empirical results indicate that, compared with hair-snag-only data, the joint hair-snag-rub-tree methods produce similar but more precise estimates if capture and recapture rates are reasonably high for both methods. Simulation results suggest that estimators are potentially affected by correlation of capture probabilities between sample types in the presence of heterogeneity. Overall, closed population Huggins-Pledger estimators showed the highest precision and were most robust to sparse data, heterogeneity, and capture probability correlation among sampling types. Results also indicate that these estimators can be used when a segment of the population has zero capture probability for one of the methods. We propose that this general methodology may be useful for other species in which mark-recapture data are available from multiple sources.     

Combining multistate capture-recapture data with tag recoveries to estimate demographic parameters

Matrix population models that allow an animal to occupy more than one state over time are important tools for population and evolutionary ecologists. Definition of state can vary, including location for metapopulation models and breeding state for life history models. For populations whose members can be marked and subsequently reencountered, multistate mark-recapture models are available to estimate the survival and transition probabilities needed to construct population models. Multistate models have proved extremely useful in this context, but they often require a substantial amount of data and restrict estimation of transition probabilities to those areas or states subjected to formal sampling effort. At the same time, for many species, there are considerable tag recovery data provided by the public that could be modeled in order to increase precision and to extend inference to a greater number of areas or states. Here we present a statistical model for combining multistate capture-recapture data (e.g., from a breeding ground study) with multistate tag recovery data (e.g., from wintering grounds). We use this method to analyze data from a study of Canada Geese (Branta canadensis) in the Atlantic Flyway of North America. Our analysis produced marginal improvement in precision, due to relatively few recoveries, but we demonstrate how precision could be further improved with increases in the probability that a retrieved tag is reported.     

Toxicity of the explosive metabolites hexahydro-1,3,5-trinitroso-1,3,5-triazine (TNX) and hexahydro-1-nitroso-3,5-dinitro-1,3,5-triazine (MNX) to the earthworm Eisenia fetida

Toxicity of hexahydro-1-nitroso-3,5-dinitro-1,3,5-triazine (MNX) and hexahydro-1,3,5-trinitroso-1,3,5-triazine (TNX) to earthworm was evaluated. Both MNX and TNX had lethal and sublethal effects on earthworms. Exposure to MNX- or TNX-contaminated soil caused a significant concentration-dependent decrease in earthworm survival and growth. The lowest observed lethal concentration (LOLC) for both MNX and TNX was 100 and 200 mgkg(-1) soil dry weight in the sandy loam soil and in the silt loam soil, respectively. No earthworms survived for 14 days in MNX- or TNX-spiked soil at 500 mgkg(-1) soil dry weight. After 7 days exposure, the lowest observed effect concentration (LOEC) for earthworm growth was 50 mgkg(-1) soil dry weight for TNX and 100 mgkg(-1) soil dry weight for MNX in both soil types. The LC20 and LC50 for MNX in sandy loam soil were 114 and 262 mgkg(-1) and for TNX, they were 114 and 254 mgkg(-1) soil dry weight, respectively. The corresponding values for MNX and TNX in silt loam soil were 234 and 390 mgkg(-1) soil dry weight, respectively, and 200 and 362 mgkg(-1) soil dry weight, respectively. After 35 days exposure, earthworm growth was reduced 8-39% by TNX in sandy loam soil, whereas TNX only inhibited earthworm growth 5-18% at the same concentration range in silt loam soil. LC20 and LC50 for TNX were slightly lower than for MNX; this indicates that TNX was more toxic than MNX. No significant morphological or developmental abnormalities were observed in earthworms surviving exposure.     

Perchlorate in fish from a contaminated site in east-central Texas

Perchlorate, a known thyroid endocrine disruptor, contaminates surface waters near military instillations where solid fuel rocket motors are manufactured or assembled. To assess potential perchlorate exposure to fish and the human population which may feed on them, fish were collected around the Naval Weapons Industrial Reserve Plant in McLennan County, TX, and analyzed for the presence of the perchlorate anion. The sampling sites included Lake Waco and Belton Lake, and several streams and rivers within their watersheds. The general tendency was that perchlorate was only found in a few species sampled, and perchlorate was not detected in every individual within these species. When detected in the fish, perchlorate tissue concentrations were greater than that in the water. This may be due to highly variable perchlorate concentrations in the water coupled with individual-level variation in elimination from the body, or to routes of exposure other than water.     

Reproduction, larval growth, and reproductive development in African clawed frogs (Xenopus laevis) exposed to atrazine

Reproductive success and development of F2 offspring from F1 adult African clawed frogs (Xenopus laevis) exposed to atrazine throughout larval development and as sexually mature adults was examined. Larval X. laevis were exposed to one of four nominal concentrations of atrazine (0, 1, 10, 25 microg atrazine/l) beginning 96 hr after fertilization and continuing through two years post-metamorphosis. Clutch size and survival of offspring were used as measurement endpoints to gauge reproductive success of the F1 frogs. Larval survivorship and time to metamorphosis were used to gauge developmental success of the F2 offspring from atrazine-exposed frogs. Testes in F1 and F2 frogs were examined for incidence of anomalies, such as testicular ovarian follicles, and sex ratios in F2 offspring were investigated to determine if exposure to atrazine caused trans-generational effects (effects on F2 individuals due to exposure of F1 individuals). There were no effects of any of the studied concentrations of atrazine on clutch size of F1 frogs. There were also no effects on hatching success or time to metamorphosis. Sex ratios did not differ between F2 offspring among treatments. There was no evidence to suggest a transgenerational effect of atrazine on spawning success or reproductive development of X. laevis. This is consistent with the presence of robust populations of X. laevis in areas where they are exposed to atrazine that has been used for several decades for weed control in production of corn. Our observations also are consistent with the results of most other studies of frogs where no effects were found to be associated with exposure to atrazine. Our data do not support the hypothesis that atrazine significantly affects reproductive fitness and development of frogs.