Modelling the dynamics of coral reef macroalgae using a Bayesian belief network approach

Macroalgae are a major benthic component of coral reefs and their dynamics influence the resilience of coral reefs to disturbance. However, the relative importance of physical and ecological processes in driving macroalgal dynamics is poorly understood. Here we develop a Bayesian belief network (BBN) model to integrate many of these processes and predict the growth of coral reef macroalgae. Bayesian belief networks use probabilistic relationships rather than deterministic rules to quantify the cause and effect assumptions. The model was developed using both new empirical data and quantified relationships elicited from previous studies. We demonstrate the efficacy of the BBN to predict the dynamics of a common Caribbean macroalgal genus Dictyota. Predictions of the model have an average accuracy of 55% (implying that 55% of the predicted categories of Dictyota cover were assigned to the correct class). Sensitivity analysis suggested that macroalgal dynamics were primarily driven by top–down processes of grazing rather than bottom–up nutrification. BBNs provide a useful framework for modelling complex systems, identifying gaps in our scientific understanding and communicating the complexities of the associated uncertainties in an explicit manner to stakeholders. We anticipate that accuracies will improve as new data are added to the model.     

Risk-based economic decision analysis of remediation options at a PCE-contaminated site

Remediation methods for contaminated sites cover a wide range of technical solutions with different remedial efficiencies and costs. Additionally, they may vary in their secondary impacts on the environment i.e. the potential impacts generated due to emissions and resource use caused by the remediation activities. More attention is increasingly being given to these secondary environmental impacts when evaluating remediation options. This paper presents a methodology for an integrated economic decision analysis which combines assessments of remediation costs, health risk costs and potential environmental costs. The health risks costs are associated with the residual contamination left at the site and its migration to groundwater used for drinking water. A probabilistic exposure model using first- and second-order reliability methods (FORM/SORM) is used to estimate the contaminant concentrations at a downstream groundwater well. Potential environmental impacts on the local, regional and global scales due to the site remediation activities are evaluated using life cycle assessments (LCA). The potential impacts on health and environment are converted to monetary units using a simplified cost model.A case study based upon the developed methodology is presented in which the following remediation scenarios are analyzed and compared: (a) no action, (b) excavation and off-site treatment of soil, (c) soil vapor extraction and (d) thermally enhanced soil vapor extraction by electrical heating of the soil. Ultimately, the developed methodology facilitates societal cost estimations of remediation scenarios which can be used for internal ranking of the analyzed options. Despite the inherent uncertainties of placing a value on health and environmental impacts, the presented methodology is believed to be valuable in supporting decisions on remedial interventions.     

Topsoil inversion as a restoration measure in sand dunes,early results from a UK field-trial

Over-stabilisation and eutrophication affect many dune systems in north-west Europe. This leads to lower diversity of typical dune species and an accumulation of soil nutrients. Existing management techniques to remove excess nutrients include mowing, with removal of cuttings, and turf stripping. A new restoration technique called topsoil inversion or deep ploughing may also be able to counter some of the negative effects of eutrophication. It simulates the burial of established soils with fresh mineral sand, by inverting the soil profile. A trial was carried out on two small blocks of eutrophic dune grassland in North Wales, UK. Nutrient-rich surface soils were buried beneath mineral sub-sand using a double-bladed plough, designed to plough to depths of up to 100 cm. Results show that the organic soil horizons were buried to a depth of 80 cm, and covered with 40–50 cm of mineral sand. The pH and organic matter of the surface layers became comparable to those of mobile dunes. Fifteen months after ploughing, bare sand cover was still 70–90%, but significant sand loss through wind erosion resulted in a thinning of the mineral sand over-burden, leaving the buried organic layer closer to the surface. Natural vegetation colonisation was slow, with the first surviving plants observed after 8 months. The majority of species present at 15 months were present before ploughing and had regenerated from rhizomes or root fragments. The effect of excluding disturbance caused by rabbits, people and dogs was assessed within fenced areas. After 11 months, vegetation cover was greater in the fenced areas than in plots exposed to disturbance, therefore disturbance replaced physical conditions as the dominant influence on plant growth and establishment. These early results suggest the trial has been partially successful, but that topsoil inversion could be combined with other methods such as turf stripping or by stabilisation of the ploughed surface by planting with pioneer species, depending on the ultimate restoration goal.     

Verification of a 3D CFD model for vertical slot fish-passes

In the present work, we verified a 3D computational fluid dynamics model for vertical slot fish-passes (VSFs) that employs the renormalization-group k-epsilon turbulence model (RNG KE) and the volume of fluid (VOF) method. We compared model calculations with experiments in two pool designs T1 and T2 of an experimental VSF and with 2D calculations using the shallow water equations (SWE) and the standard k-epsilon (2D SKE) model. Calculations of the 3D model showed (1) good agreement with experiments and 2D calculations in predicting mean flow velocities, (2) better performance in the determination of the water surface in the VSF, which is attributed to the accurate VOF method, (3) superior prediction of turbulence characteristics than the 2D model, which is due to the 3D RNG KE model that overcomes the problem of turbulence overestimation of the 2D SKE model, and to the fact that the 3D model takes into account the 3D features of the flow in the fish pass. Moreover, the present 3D calculations showed that the common assumptions in VSFs that (1) the flow is 2D, and (2) the simulation of 4 pools of a VSF is sufficient to obtain satisfactory results, are not always valid. Flow can be considered as 2D only in pool design T2 and for certain geometries and flow characteristics in pool design T1; while, eventually, all the pools of a fish pass need to be modeled to ensure accurate results. Finally, the present work illustrates the need to perform fish experiments simultaneously with flow experiments.     

Sustainable development frontiers and divides: Transnational actors and US/China greenhouse gas emissions

Perpetuation of the South-North divide over climate change threatens to undermine the sustainability of the planet's vulnerable ecosystems. The current focus of international attention is on the USA and the PRC since both countries are in a position to negate or clinch the global warming mitigation efforts of the rest of the world community and because the two governments are primarily responsible for the entrenched global impasse over greenhouse gas (GHG) abatement. This contribution illustrates how transnational non-state actors, specifically Chinese American transmigrants, can make a difference in surmounting the US-China divide over GHG emissions, even in a time of state stalemate. Specific opportunities to shape sustainable development outcomes are explored by reference to energy efficiency, renewable energy, transportation, GHG capture, and public education projects. The discussion shows that, by teaming up with the NGOs, universities, foundations and firms engaged in or contemplating involvement in GHG emission mitigation projects in China, Chinese Americans from many walks of life who can manoeuvre skilfully along the climate change frontier occupy a potentially decisive position in terms of supporting sustainable development.     

Eco‐efficiency,self‐sufficiency and sustainability in transport: The limits for Brazilian sugarcane ethanol policy

This paper examines the historic development of the Brazilian sugarcane ethanol sector and the largely successful attempt to create a sustainable, renewable fuel for the transport sector. The policy that resulted from this process is an example of meeting the need for sustainable transport through the consideration of location‐specific characteristics and appropriate policy. The paper then questions the current and expected trajectory of the sugarcane ethanol sector with the focus on one key question: can sustainability be exported? In this analysis, the paper identifies new threats to the sustainability of Brazilian sugarcane ethanol and potential “opportunity costs” incurred in further development and internationalization of the sector. The paper concludes that exporting sugarcane ethanol may bring unanticipated deleterious consequences, which in turn means that both policy and theory need to be more precise about how sustainable transport is defined and bounded by time and space.     

Pollution and potential mobility of Cd, Ni and Pb in the sediments of a wastewater-receiving river in Hanoi, Vietnam

Large quantities of untreated industrial and domestic wastewater are discharged from the city of Hanoi into urban rivers. Sediment samples from three sites in the To Lich River in Hanoi were assessed with respect to the concentrations and potential mobility of cadmium (Cd), nickel (Ni) and lead (Pb). Due to very high Cd concentrations up to 700 mg kg^?1 at one site, the sediment was considered highly unsuitable for any types of land use if dredged and disposed of on land. Chemical sequential extractions of wet and anoxic sediment samples showed that Cd and Pb were largely associated with the redox-sensitive fractions and could thus be mobilised following measures such as resuspension or dredging. To assess the potential mobilisation of heavy metals from the anoxic sediment due to oxidation, the samples were exposed to different oxidants (i.e. atmospheric air and hydrogen peroxide) and afterwards submitted to a leaching test. These experiments showed that although oxidation may increase the equilibrium pore water concentrations of heavy metals in the sediments, other sediment mineral fractions seem to effectively immobilise heavy metals potentially released from the oxidisable fraction.