Conservation optimism and reckoning with the future

Article impact statement: The optimism permeating biological conservation should be recalibrated considering the future that present times portend.     

Mapping shifts in spatial synchrony in grassland birds to inform conservation planning

Spatial synchrony, defined as the correlated fluctuations in abundance of spatially separated populations, can be caused by regional fluctuations in natural and anthropogenic environmental population drivers. Investigations into the geography of synchrony can provide useful insight to inform conservation planning efforts by revealing regions of common population drivers and metapopulation extinction vulnerability. We examined the geography of spatial synchrony and decadal changes in these patterns for grassland birds in the United States and Canada, which are experiencing widespread and persistent population declines. We used Bayesian hierarchical models and over 50 years of abundance data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey to generate population indices within a 2° latitude by 2° longitude grid. We computed and mapped mean local spatial synchrony for each cell (mean detrended correlation of the index among neighboring cells), along with associated uncertainty, for 19 species in 2, 26-year periods, 1968–1993 and 1994–2019. Grassland birds were predicted to increase in spatial synchrony where agricultural intensification, climate change, or interactions between the 2 increased. We found no evidence of an overall increase in synchrony among grassland bird species. However, based on the geography of these changes, there was considerable spatial heterogeneity within species. Averaging across species, we identified clusters of increasing spatial synchrony in the Prairie Pothole and Shortgrass Prairie regions and a region of decreasing spatial synchrony in the eastern United States. Our approach has the potential to inform continental-scale conservation planning by adding an additional layer of relevant information to species status assessments and spatial prioritization of policy and management actions. Our work adds to a growing literature suggesting that global change may result in shifting patterns of spatial synchrony in population dynamics across taxa with broad implications for biodiversity conservation.     

A framework for allocating conservation resources among multiple threats and actions

Land managers decide how to allocate resources among multiple threats that can be addressed through multiple possible actions. Additionally, these actions vary in feasibility, effectiveness, and cost. We sought to provide a way to optimize resource allocation to address multiple threats when multiple management options are available, including mutually exclusive options. Formulating the decision as a combinatorial optimization problem, our framework takes as inputs the expected impact and cost of each threat for each action (including do nothing) and for each overall budget identifies the optimal action to take for each threat. We compared the optimal solution to an easy to calculate greedy algorithm approximation and a variety of plausible ranking schemes. We applied the framework to management of multiple introduced plant species in Australian alpine areas. We developed a model of invasion to predict the expected impact in 50 years for each species-action combination that accounted for each species’ current invasion state (absent, localized, widespread); arrival probability; spread rate; impact, if present, of each species; and management effectiveness of each species-action combination. We found that the recommended action for a threat changed with budget; there was no single optimal management action for each species; and considering more than one candidate action can substantially increase the management plan's overall efficiency. The approximate solution (solution ranked by marginal cost-effectiveness) performed well when the budget matched the cost of the prioritized actions, indicating that this approach would be effective if the budget was set as part of the prioritization process. The ranking schemes varied in performance, and achieving a close to optimal solution was not guaranteed. Global sensitivity analysis revealed a threat's expected impact and, to a lesser extent, management effectiveness were the most influential parameters, emphasizing the need to focus research and monitoring efforts on their quantification.     

Is there a role for fetal interventions in gastroschisis management? – An updated comprehensive review

We conducted a comprehensive evidence-based review on the epidemiology and current standard of care of gastroschisis management as well as the pathophysiology, rationale and feasibility of fetal therapy as a viable alternative. Gastroschisis is a periumbilical abdominal wall defect characterized by abdominal viscera herniation in utero. It affects 4 in 10 000 live births, but the prevalence has steadily increased in recent years. Gastroschisis is typically diagnosed on routine second-trimester ultrasound. The overall prognosis is favorable, but complex gastroschisis, which accounts for about 10% to 15% of cases, is associated with a higher mortality, significant disease burden and higher healthcare costs due to long- and short-term complications. The current standard of care has yet to be established but generally involves continued fetal surveillance and multidisciplinary perinatal care. Postnatal surgical repair is achieved with primary closure, staged silo closure or sutureless repair. Experimental animal studies have demonstrated the feasibility of in utero closure, antiinflammatory therapy and prenatal regenerative therapy. However, reports of early preterm delivery and amnioinfusion trials have failed to show any benefit in humans. Further experimental studies and human trials are necessary to demonstrate the potential benefit of fetal therapy in gastroschisis.     

Fetoscopic myelomeningocoele closure: Is the scientific evidence enough to challenge the gold standard for prenatal surgery?

Since the completion of the Management of Myelomeningocoele Study, maternal-fetal surgery for spina bifida has become a valid option for expecting parents. More recently, multiple groups are exploring a minimally invasive approach and recent outcomes have addressed many of the initial concerns with this approach. Based on a previously published framework, we attempt to delineate the developmental stage of the surgical techniques. Furthermore, we discuss the barriers of performing randomized controlled trials comparing two surgical interventions and suggest that data collection through registries is an alternative method to gather high-grade evidence.