Fine‐resolution conservation planning with limited climate‐change information

Climate‐change induced uncertainties in future spatial patterns of conservation‐related outcomes make it difficult to implement standard conservation‐planning paradigms. A recent study translates Markowitz's risk‐diversification strategy from finance to conservation settings, enabling conservation agents to use this diversification strategy for allocating conservation and restoration investments across space to minimize the risk associated with such uncertainty. However, this method is information intensive and requires a large number of forecasts of ecological outcomes associated with possible climate‐change scenarios for carrying out fine‐resolution conservation planning. We developed a technique for iterative, spatial portfolio analysis that can be used to allocate scarce conservation resources across a desired level of subregions in a planning landscape in the absence of a sufficient number of ecological forecasts. We applied our technique to the Prairie Pothole Region in central North America. A lack of sufficient future climate information prevented attainment of the most efficient risk‐return conservation outcomes in the Prairie Pothole Region. The difference in expected conservation returns between conservation planning with limited climate‐change information and full climate‐change information was as large as 30% for the Prairie Pothole Region even when the most efficient iterative approach was used. However, our iterative approach allowed finer resolution portfolio allocation with limited climate‐change forecasts such that the best possible risk‐return combinations were obtained. With our most efficient iterative approach, the expected loss in conservation outcomes owing to limited climate‐change information could be reduced by 17% relative to other iterative approaches.     

Implications of human value shift and persistence for biodiversity conservation

Large‐scale change in human values and associated behavior change is believed by some to be the ultimate solution to achieve global biodiversity conservation. Yet little is known about the dynamics of values. We contribute to this area of inquiry by examining the trajectory of values affecting views of wildlife in North America. Using data from a 19‐state study in the United States and global data from the Schwartz Value Survey, we explored questions of value persistence and change and the nature of attitudinal responses regarding wildlife conservation issues. We found support, based on subjects’ ancestry, for the supposition that domination is a prevalent American value orientation toward wildlife that has origins in European Judeo‐Christian traditions. Independent of that effect, we also found indications of change. Modernization is contributing to a shift from domination to mutualism value orientations, which is fostering attitudes less centered on human interests and seemingly more consistent with a biocentric philosophy. Our findings suggest that if value shift could be achieved in a purposeful way, then significant and widespread behavior change believed necessary for long‐term conservation success may indeed be possible. In particular, greater emphasis on mutualism values may help provide the context for more collaborative approaches to support future conservation efforts. However, given the societal forces at play, it is not at all clear that human‐engineered value shift is tenable. Instead of developing strategies aimed at altering values, it may be more productive to create strategies that recognize and work within the boundaries of existing values. Whereas values appear to be in a period of flux, it will be difficult to predict future trends without a better understanding of value formation and shift, particularly under conditions of rapid social‐ecological change.     

Archaeometric researches on the provenance of Mediterranean Archaic Phoenician and Punic pottery

The aim of this study is to setup a first chemical database that could represent the starting point for a reliable classification method to discriminate between Archaic Phoenician and Punic pottery on the base of their chemical data. This database up to now can discriminate between several different areas of production and provenance and can be applied also to unknown ceramic samples of comparable age and production areas. More than 100 ceramic fragments were involved in this research, coming from various archaeological sites having a crucial importance in the context of the Phoenician and Punic settlement in central and western Mediterranean: Carthage (Tunisia), Toscanos (South Andalusia, Spain), Sulci, Monte Sirai, Othoca, Tharros (Sardinia, Italy) and Pithecusa (Campania, Italy). Since long-time archaeologists hypothesised that Mediterranean Archaic Phoenician and Punic pottery had mainly a local or just a regional diffusion, with the exception of some particular class like transport amphorae. To verify the pottery provenance, statistical analyses were carried out to define the existence of different ceramic compositional groups characterised by a local origin or imported from other sites. The existing literature data are now supplemented by new archaeometric investigations both on Archaic Phoenician ceramics and clayey raw materials from Sardinia. Therefore, diffractometric analyses, optical microscopy observations and X-ray fluorescence analyses were performed to identify the mineralogical and chemical composition of Othoca ceramics and clayey raw material. The obtained results were then compared with own literature data concerning Phoenician and Punic pottery in order to find features related to the different ceramic productions and their provenance. Principal component analysis (PCA) and hierarchical cluster analysis (HCA) were also performed on the chemical compositional data in order to discriminate ceramic groups. A very complex situation was found: imported ceramics coming from Carthage, with a large-scale distribution, were found together with a predominant local production pottery. The archaeometric results demonstrate that historical and typological approach has to be supported by scientific analyses to better understand local or Mediterranean exchanges.     

Using a Bayesian network to clarify areas requiring research in a host–pathogen system

Bayesian network analyses can be used to interactively change the strength of effect of variables in a model to explore complex relationships in new ways. In doing so, they allow one to identify influential nodes that are not well studied empirically so that future research can be prioritized. We identified relationships in host and pathogen biology to examine disease‐driven declines of amphibians associated with amphibian chytrid fungus (Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis). We constructed a Bayesian network consisting of behavioral, genetic, physiological, and environmental variables that influence disease and used them to predict host population trends. We varied the impacts of specific variables in the model to reveal factors with the most influence on host population trend. The behavior of the nodes (the way in which the variables probabilistically responded to changes in states of the parents, which are the nodes or variables that directly influenced them in the graphical model) was consistent with published results. The frog population had a 49% probability of decline when all states were set at their original values, and this probability increased when body temperatures were cold, the immune system was not suppressing infection, and the ambient environment was conducive to growth of B. dendrobatidis. These findings suggest the construction of our model reflected the complex relationships characteristic of host–pathogen interactions. Changes to climatic variables alone did not strongly influence the probability of population decline, which suggests that climate interacts with other factors such as the capacity of the frog immune system to suppress disease. Changes to the adaptive immune system and disease reservoirs had a large effect on the population trend, but there was little empirical information available for model construction. Our model inputs can be used as a base to examine other systems, and our results show that such analyses are useful tools for reviewing existing literature, identifying links poorly supported by evidence, and understanding complexities in emerging infectious‐disease systems.     

Determination of trace metal concentrations in soil profiles of municipal waste dumps in Nigeria

The concentrations of trace metals (Cd, Pb, Cu, Cr, Fe, Ni, Zn and Co) were studied in soil profiles of eight municipal waste dump sites in Warri metropolis. The results indicate that concentrations of trace metals varied widely among the different dumpsites and decreased with depths in a studied soil profile. The accumulation pattern for the heavy metals in the soil profiles follows the order: Fe > Pb > Mn > Co > Cr > Zn > Ni > Cu > Cd. The concentrations of metals found in these sites was below the Canadian remediation criteria for land for agricultural, residential and commercial/industrial purposes except for the cadmium levels in some sites that exceeded criterion values for agricultural and residential. In such sites, remedial actions are required before any form of chosen development can take place. The levels of heavy metals found in these dump sites were higher than that of the control site. The examined metals showed no significant correlation with soil physicochemical properties at the surface horizon, which is suggestive evidence that these metals arise from anthropogenic input.     

Growth of northern deciduous trees under increasing atmospheric humidity: possible mechanisms behind the growth retardation

Regional Environmental Change - Increasing atmospheric humidity—a climate trend predicted for northern Europe—will reduce water flux through vegetation. Diminished transpirational water...     

Modal choice for transportation of hazardous materials: the case of land modes of transport of bio-ethanol in Brazil

Performance evaluation is important in managing freight transport. The transport of certain products, especially those that are hazardous, can have significant financial and socio-environmental impacts. This article presents an application of the modal choice method (MCM) to establish an order of priority among the alternatives considered to carry a determined hazardous product. After a research of the literature on the concepts and development of the proposed method, we consulted experts about their experiences and knowledge, to determine a set of relevant attributes for the evaluation process. We then applied this method to the specific case of the Brazilian bio-ethanol industry, to demonstrate the potential of using the MCM as a tool to support make decisions. We can conclude that highway transport, though the most often used, is not the best compared to trains or pipelines (or combinations of any of the three) from a socio-environmental standpoint. Alternatives with longer pipeline segments are the most suitable to replace the current practice in environmental terms.     

Application of carbon adsorbents prepared from Brazilian-pine fruit shell for the removal of reactive orange 16 from aqueous solution: Kinetic,equilibrium, and thermodynamic studies

Activated (AC-PW) and non-activated (C-PW) carbonaceous materials were prepared from the Brazilian-pine fruit shell (Araucaria angustifolia) and tested as adsorbents for the removal of reactive orange 16 dye (RO-16) from aqueous effluents. The effects of shaking time, adsorbent dosage and pH on the adsorption capacity were studied. RO-16 uptake was favorable at pH values ranging from 2.0 to 3.0 and from 2.0 to 7.0 for C-PW and AC-PW, respectively. The contact time required to obtain the equilibrium using C-PW and AC-PW as adsorbents was 5 and 4 h at 298 K, respectively. The fractionary-order kinetic model provided the best fit to experimental data compared with other models. Equilibrium data were better fit to the Sips isotherm model using C-PW and AC-PW as adsorbents. The enthalpy and entropy of adsorption of RO-16 were obtained from adsorption experiments ranging from 298 to 323 K.     

Reorienting Systematic Conservation Assessment for Effective Conservation Planning

Abstract: Systematic conservation assessment (an information‐gathering and prioritization process used to select the spatial foci of conservation initiatives) is often considered vital to conservation‐planning efforts, yet published assessments have rarely resulted in conservation action. Conservation assessments may lead more directly to effective conservation action if they are reoriented to inform conservation decisions. Toward this goal, we evaluated the relative priority for conservation of 7 sites proposed for the first forest reserves in the Union of the Comoros, an area with high levels of endemism and rapidly changing land uses in the western Indian Ocean. Through the analysis of 30 indicator variables measured at forest sites and nearby villages, we assessed 3 prioritization criteria at each site: conservation value, threat to loss of biological diversity from human activity, and feasibility of reserve establishment. Our results indicated 2 sites, Yiméré and Hassera‐Ndrengé, were priorities for conservation action. Our approach also informed the development of an implementation strategy and enabled an evaluation of previously unexplored relations among prioritization criteria. Our experience suggests that steps taken to ensure the closer involvement of practitioners, include a broader range of social data, encourage stakeholder participation, and consider the feasibility of conservation action can improve the relevance of assessments for conservation planning, strengthen the scientific basis for conservation decisions, and result in a more realistic evaluation of conservation alternatives.