Analysing the sensitivity behaviour of two hydrology models

Recently, the New Morris Method has been presented as an effective sensitivity analysis tool for mathematical models. The New Morris Method estimates the sensitivity of an output parameter to a given set of input parameters (first-order effects) and the extent these parameters interact with each other (second-order effects). This method requires the specification of two parameters (runs and resolution) that control the sampling of the output parameter to determine its sensitivity to various inputs. The criteria for these parameters have been set on the analysis of a well-behaved analytical function (see Cropp and Braddock, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf. 78:77–83, 2002), which may not be applicable to other physical models that describe complex processes. This paper will investigate the appropriateness of the criteria from (Cropp and Braddock, 2002) and hence the effectiveness of the New Morris Method to determine the sensitivity behaviour of two hydrologic models: the Soil Erosion and Deposition System and Griffith University Representation of Urban Hydrology. In the first case, this paper will separately analyse the sensitivity of an output parameter on a set of input parameters (first- and second-order effects) for each model and discuss the physical meaning of these sensitivities. This will be followed by an investigation into the sampling criteria by exploring the convergence of the sensitivity behaviour for each model as the sampling of the parameter space is increased. By comparing these trends to the convergence behaviour from Cropp and Braddock (2002), we will determine how well the New Morris Method estimates the sensitivity for each model and whether the sampling criteria are appropriate for these models. It will be shown that the New Morris Method can provide additional insight into the functioning of these models, and that, under a different metric, the sensitivity behaviour of these models does converge confirming the sampling criteria set by Cropp and Braddock.     

水中Mg~(2+)的测试管快速测定

研制了一种测定水中Mg2 + 的测试管 ,测定范围为 0 .5mg/L～ 2 .0mg/L。该测试管适用于现场应急监测 ,具有快速、简便、抗干扰能力强和价格低廉等特点     

Mathematical balance models for monitoring the state of Lake Baikal

The global cycles of man-produced pollutants entering the natural environment are reflected in changes of pollutant cycles, even in background regions.The system of mathematical balance simulation models of inorganic pollutant distribution and circulation (some heavy metals and pesticides included in the priority list for integrated background monitoring) has been developed for the Lake Baikal drainage basin. The system consists of the following units: (1) inventory and classification of regional sources of pollutants entering the atmosphere, natural waters and soils; (2) computation of the global atmospheric transfer and depositions; (3) regional spreading with atmospheric fluxes and deposition onto the underlying surfaces; (4) transport with waterflows feeding Lake Baikal; (5) transport with the lake currents and balance in the lake.The models developed have enabled improvement of existing programmes and systems of observations, in particular to substantiate the large-scale snow sampling and analysis network, and to develop the programme of integrated surveys of the state of Lake Baikal. Since 1981 these actions have been included in the operational network observations within the Lake Baikal Monitoring System.     

乌鲁木齐市餐饮业油烟污染的调查及防治初探

通过对乌鲁木齐市20家餐饮业油烟污染的调查分析，结果表明，乌鲁木齐市餐饮业油烟污染严重，并提出了防治措施。     

新疆物理监测能力现状及建议

针对新疆物理监测工作(包括噪声监测、振动监测、辐射监测等)现状及环保监测系统物理监测的人员、仪器、能力等情况，分析了物理监测工作存在的不足，并对今后更好的开展物理监测工作提出建设性意见。     

焦作市区大气污染状况与防治措施

根据“九五”期间焦作市区的大气污染监测资料，对市区大气污染状况进行了分析和评价，并对其成因进行了分析，提出了一些具体的防治措施。     

Climate impact on social systems: the risk assessment approach

A novel approach to the problem of estimating climate impact on social systems is suggested. This approach is based on a risk concept, where the notion of critical events is introduced and the probability of such events is estimated. The estimation considers both the inherent stochasticity of climatic processes and the artificial stochasticity of climate predictions due to scientific uncertainties. The method is worked out in some detail for the regional problem of crop production and the risks associated with global climate change, and illustrated by a case study (Kursk region of the FSU). In order to get local climatic characteristics (weather), a so-called statistical weather generator is used. One interesting finding is that the 3% risk level remains constant up to 1.0–1.1°C rise of mean seasonal temperature, if the variance does not change. On the other hand, the risk grows rapidly with increasing variance (even if the mean temperature rises very slowly). The risk approach is able to separate two problems: (i) assessment of global change impact, and (ii) decision making. The main task for the scientific community is to provide the politicians with different options; the choice of admissible (from the social point of view) critical events and the corresponding risk levels is the business of decision makers.     

车载巡测在区域射频电磁环境质量监测与表征中的应用分析

对北京中央电视塔周围25 km²区域电磁环境质量分别进行了射频的网格法手工监测和车载巡测自动监测，通过SPSS软件等对两种监测方法获取的数据进行了统计对比分析，发现两组数据在总体水平及数值分布特征上较为接近，因此车载巡测监测可以替代网格法监测。以车载巡测数据为基础，绘制了实测数据的道路电磁地图，利用插值法绘制了区域电磁地图，对区域电磁环境质量进行了直观表征。从回应公众关注和城市电磁规划出发，建议今后可利用车载巡测监测加强时域和频域的监测。     

Occurrence of dissolved PAHs in the Jinsha River (Panzhihua)--upper reaches of the Yangtze River,Southwest China

16 priority polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) were determined in water samples from the Jinsha River (Panzhihua part), Southwest China. Total dissolved PAH concentrations varied from 21.89 microg l(-1) to 382.8 microg l(-1). It was found that the concentration of PAHs decreased along the flow direction due to the higher density distribution of coal chemical industry in the upstream of our study rivers. The pollution levels in our study area are significantly higher than previously reported values in other waters both in China and other countries. The predominance of benzo[k]fluoranthene and indeno[1,2,3-cd]pyrene was clearly observed in all water samples. On average these two compounds accounted for 98.3% of the total dissolved PAH concentration in water. The results showed the positive correlations among total dissolved PAHs, benzo[k]fluoranthene and indeno[1,2,3-cd]pyrene, which suggested that these two predominant PAHs have similar source and environmental behaviors in our study area. When compared with the survey results of organic micropollutants two decades ago, it was found that hydrocarbon pollution both predominated and even increased with the development of coal chemical industry in this area during the past 20 years. The results therefore provide important information on the current contamination status of a key industrial city in China, and points to the need for urgent action to investigate the relationship between the PAH composition and concentration in water from the Jinsha River and the wastewater discharge from coal chemical industry, and to identify the source, transport pathway and fate of PAHs in the area. It should then be necessary to adopt appropriate and instant measures to control the pollution around this area.     

新疆生态环境质量综合评价研究

合适的评价指标体系对正确评价区域的生态环境质量起关键的决定性作用。本文综合前人的研究成果，应用RS和GIS技术，采用综合指数评价法，对全疆区域的生态环境质量进行评价、排序及分级，由此得出符合实际的全疆生态环境质量状况。结果表明，全疆生态环境质量总体较差，北疆生态环境质量优于南疆，北疆西部生态环境质量优于北疆东部地区。