Analysis of Extreme Summer Rainfall Using Climate Teleconnections and Typhoon Characteristics in South Korea1

Abstract: It is now widely acknowledged that climate variability modulates the frequency of extreme hydrological events. Traditional methodologies for hydrologic frequency analysis are not devised to account for variation in the exogenous teleconnections. Flood frequency analysis is further plagued by the assumptions of stationary in the causal structure as well as ergodicity. Here, we propose a dynamical hierarchical Bayesian analysis to account for exogenous forcing that govern the summer season rainfall. The precursors for Korean summer rainfall at different frequencies are identified utilizing wavelet and independent component analyses. The sea surface temperatures, the ensemble of rainfall predictions by General Circulation Model, in addition to the typhoon attributes were found to have direct correlation with extreme rainfall events and were used as inputs to the logistic regression model. The model parameters are estimated using Markov Chain Monte Carlo and the resulting posterior distributions associated with individual inputs are analyzed to advance our understanding of the spatiotemporal impact of the teleconnections. Eight rainfall stations throughout Korea are considered in this analysis. We demonstrate that the probability of occurrence of extreme events could be successfully projected at a 90% rate of correct classification of extreme events.     

Applying Zonation Methods and Tabu Search to Improve the Ground‐Water Modeling1

Abstract: An optimization procedure combining zonation methods with the Tabu Search method is proposed to identify the spatial distribution of hydraulic conductivity field. Three zonation methods, Voronoi diagram (VD), multiplicatively weighted Voronoi diagram (MWVD), and pattern zonation are adopted for the parameterization purposes. With the consideration of the homogeneity and the heterogeneity, there are four spatial distributions of hydraulic conductivity designed to test whether the parameter structure can be successfully identified. The fitting residual error is first considered to determine an adequate number of zones without over parameterization. Then, the parameter uncertainty is evaluated the decision of the number of zones. The results indicate that the MWVD performs better than other two methods because the MWVD has better flexibility in describing the zonal boundaries with small number of decision variables.     

Racial differences in promotion candidate performance and reactions to selection procedures: a field study in a diverse top‐management context

The present study examined African‐American and White promotion candidates' reactions to and performance on selection procedures that were completed within a police department where African Americans occupied the majority of top‐management positions. Reactions (perceived job relatedness and test‐taking motivation) of 187 candidates competing for promotion to the rank of sergeant were assessed after completing a written job knowledge test and a situational interview. Analyses showed that both the African‐American and White candidates judged the situational interview to be more job‐related than the pencil‐and‐paper job knowledge test. In addition, African Americans perceived both selection measures to be more job‐related and reported higher levels of test‐taking motivation than White candidates even though African Americans performed more poorly than White candidates on the paper‐and‐pencil test. These results challenge the contention that lower test‐taking motivation for African‐American candidates is related to racial differences in performance on pencil‐ and‐paper tests. Implications and directions for future research on reactions to selection procedures for promotion in racially diverse employment settings are discussed. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A relational demography model of workgroup identification: testing the effects of race,race dissimilarity,racial identification,and communication behavior

This study tested a relational demography model of workgroup identification. We theorized that early in workgroup formation, (a) racial identification would moderate the influence of racial dissimilarity on member communication behavior (frequency and length of verbal participation) during a group task, (b) member communication behaviors would mediate the effect of racial dissimilarity on workgroup identification, and that (c) these effects would be affected non‐symmetrically by racial group membership (White, Black). This model was tested among a sample of 211 undergraduates (113 White and 98 Black), working in 43 temporary workgroups. Whites' racial identification moderated the relationship between racial dissimilarity and member communication behaviors, which in turn partially mediated the effect of racial dissimilarity on workgroup identification, generally consistent with our model. Among Black workgroup members support for our model was limited. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.