Modeling population effects of the Deepwater Horizon oil spill on a long-lived species

The 2010 Deepwater Horizon (DWH) oil spill exposed common bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) in Barataria Bay, Louisiana to heavy oiling that caused increased mortality and chronic disease and impaired reproduction in surviving dolphins. We conducted photographic surveys and veterinary assessments in the decade following the spill. We assigned a prognostic score (good, fair, guarded, poor, or grave) for each dolphin to provide a single integrated indicator of overall health, and we examined temporal trends in prognostic scores. We used expert elicitation to quantify the implications of trends for the proportion of the dolphins that would recover within their lifetime. We integrated expert elicitation, along with other new information, in a population dynamics model to predict the effects of observed health trends on demography. We compared the resulting population trajectory with that predicted under baseline (no spill) conditions. Disease conditions persisted and have recently worsened in dolphins that were presumably exposed to DWH oil: 78% of those assessed in 2018 had a guarded, poor, or grave prognosis. Dolphins born after the spill were in better health. We estimated that the population declined by 45% (95% CI 14–74) relative to baseline and will take 35 years (95% CI 18–67) to recover to 95% of baseline numbers. The sum of annual differences between baseline and injured population sizes (i.e., the lost cetacean years) was 30,993 (95% CI 6607–94,148). The population is currently at a minimum point in its recovery trajectory and is vulnerable to emerging threats, including planned ecosystem restoration efforts that are likely to be detrimental to the dolphins’ survival. Our modeling framework demonstrates an approach for integrating different sources and types of data, highlights the utility of expert elicitation for indeterminable input parameters, and emphasizes the importance of considering and monitoring long-term health of long-lived species subject to environmental disasters. Article impact statement: Oil spills can have long-term consequences for the health of long-lived species; thus, effective restoration and monitoring are needed.     

Effects of geomorphology, habitat, and spatial location on fish assemblages in a watershed in Ohio, USA

In this paper, we evaluate relationships between in-stream habitat, water chemistry, spatial distribution within a predominantly agricultural Midwestern watershed and geomorphic features and fish assemblage attributes and abundances. Our specific objectives were to: (1) identify and quantify key environmental variables at reach and system wide (watershed) scales; and (2) evaluate the relative influence of those environmental factors in structuring and explaining fish assemblage attributes at reach scales to help prioritize stream monitoring efforts and better incorporate all factors that influence aquatic biology in watershed management programs. The original combined data set consisted of 31 variables measured at 32 sites, which was reduced to 9 variables through correlation and linear regression analysis: stream order, percent wooded riparian zone, drainage area, in-stream cover quality, substrate quality, gradient, cross-sectional area, width of the flood prone area, and average substrate size. Canonical correspondence analysis (CCA) and variance partitioning were used to relate environmental variables to fish species abundance and assemblage attributes. Fish assemblages and abundances were explained best by stream size, gradient, substrate size and quality, and percent wooded riparian zone. Further data are needed to investigate why water chemistry variables had insignificant relationships with IBI scores. Results suggest that more quantifiable variables and consideration of spatial location of a stream reach within a watershed system should be standard data incorporated into stream monitoring programs to identify impairments that, while biologically limiting, are not fully captured or elucidated using current bioassessment methods.     

New perspectives in the use of horizontal wells for assessment and remediation

Remediation technologies can sometimes be established, but are not prevalent, for a variety of reasons; however, they can be subject to the forces of change. In some cases, creative economics promotes new uses, but also process improvements can drive new applications and levels of acceptance. This is what is happening with the deployment of horizontal wells for site assessment and remediation. In essence, decreasing costs and a strategic shift, which can be characterized as “greater flexibility,” are two factors that have brought about a resurgence of horizontal well systems. The latter is specifically tied to moving from monolithic single well systems to segmented well systems and this article explains how this is a next‐generation advancement in site assessment and remediation. As one example, nested, discrete horizontal profiling brings additional accuracy to assessment at sites, especially those challenged by access issues and also provides more directed treatment operations with a unique flexibility in dynamic groundwater systems. Also, with horizontal nested well systems, conceptual site models can be significantly enhanced with new perspectives and, depending on the situation, may provide significant economic advantages in deployment. Finally, this technological advancement creates a new paradigm in contrast, or rather as an adjunct, to vertical profiling and high‐resolution site characterization. In fact, it opens up a new strategic approach that can be called high‐resolution contaminant distribution, because flexible horizontal segmented well systems can be used to navigate “up the spine of the plume” providing discretized data sets that illuminate contaminant distribution in new ways.     

Windsor, Ontario exposure assessment study: design and methods validation of personal, indoor, and outdoor air pollution monitoring

The Windsor, Ontario Exposure Assessment Study evaluated the contribution of ambient air pollutants to personal and indoor exposures of adults and asthmatic children living in Windsor, Ontario, Canada. In addition, the role of personal, indoor, and outdoor air pollution exposures upon asthmatic children's respiratory health was assessed. Several active and passive sampling methods were applied, or adapted, for personal, indoor, and outdoor residential monitoring of nitrogen dioxide, volatile organic compounds, particulate matter (PM; PM-2.5 pm [PM2.5] and < or =10 microm [PM10] in aerodynamic diameter), elemental carbon, ultrafine particles, ozone, air exchange rates, allergens in settled dust, and particulate-associated metals. Participants completed five consecutive days of monitoring during the winter and summer of 2005 and 2006. During 2006, in addition to undertaking the air pollution measurements, asthmatic children completed respiratory health measurements (including peak flow meter tests and exhaled breath condensate) and tracked respiratory symptoms in a diary. Extensive quality assurance and quality control steps were implemented, including the collocation of instruments at the National Air Pollution Surveillance site operated by Environment Canada and at the Michigan Department of Environmental Quality site in Allen Park, Detroit, MI. During field sampling, duplicate and blank samples were also completed and these data are reported. In total, 50 adults and 51 asthmatic children were recruited to participate, resulting in 922 participant days of data. When comparing the methods used in the study with standard reference methods, field blanks were low and bias was acceptable, with most methods being within 20% of reference methods. Duplicates were typically within less than 10% of each other, indicating that study results can be used with confidence. This paper covers study design, recruitment, methodology, time activity diary, surveys, and quality assurance and control results for the different methods used.