Uncertainties and recommendations

An assessment of the impacts of changes in climate and UV-B radiation on Arctic terrestrial ecosystems, made within the Arctic Climate Impacts Assessment (ACIA), highlighted the profound implications of projected warming in particular for future ecosystem services, biodiversity and feedbacks to climate. However, although our current understanding of ecological processes and changes driven by climate and UV-B is strong in some geographical areas and in some disciplines, it is weak in others. Even though recently the strength of our predictions has increased dramatically with increased research effort in the Arctic and the introduction of new technologies, our current understanding is still constrained by various uncertainties. The assessment is based on a range of approaches that each have uncertainties, and on data sets that are often far from complete. Uncertainties arise from methodologies and conceptual frameworks, from unpredictable surprises, from lack of validation of models, and from the use of particular scenarios, rather than predictions, of future greenhouse gas emissions and climates. Recommendations to reduce the uncertainties are wide-ranging and relate to all disciplines within the assessment. However, a repeated theme is the critical importance of achieving an adequate spatial and long-term coverage of experiments, observations and monitoring of environmental changes and their impacts throughout the sparsely populated and remote region that is the Arctic.     

A new generic sub-model for radionuclide fixation in large catchments from continuous and single-pulse fallouts, as used in a river model

This paper presents a new general sub-model for fixation in catchment areas to be used within the framework of a river model for substances such as radionuclides and metals from continuous and single-pulse fallouts. The model has been critically tested using data from 27 European river sites covering a very wide geographical area and contaminated by radiocesium and radiostrontium from the Chernobyl accident and from the nuclear weapons tests (NWT fallout). This modelling approach gives radionuclide concentrations in water (total, dissolved and particulate phases) at defined sites on a monthly basis. The overall river model is based on processes in the upstream river stretch and in the catchment area. The catchment area is differentiated into inflow (approximately dry land) areas and outflow (approximately wetland) areas. The model has a general structure, which can be used for all radionuclides or substances. It is simple to apply in practice since all driving variables may be readily accessed from maps and standard monitoring programs. The driving variables are: latitude, altitude, catchment area, mean annual precipitation and fallout. Note that for large catchments, this model does not require data on the characteristic soil type or the percentage of outflow areas (wet lands) in the catchment, as in most previous models, since in practice it is very difficult to obtain reliable data on characteristic soil type or percentage of outflow areas, especially in large and topographically complex catchments. Modelled values have been compared to empirical data from rivers sites covering a wide domain (catchment areas from 3000 to 3,000,000 km2, precipitation from 400 to 1700 mm/year; fallouts from 1600 to 280,000 Bq/m2; altitudes from 0 to 1000 m.a.s.l. and latitudes from 41 degrees to 72 degrees N). The river model with its sub-model for fixation predicts close to the uncertainty factors given by the empirical data, which have been shown to be about a factor of 1.6 for 137Cs and a factor of 2.2 for 90Sr in river water. The obtained characteristic uncertainty factors for 137Cs from the Chernobyl fallout is 2.4, for 137Cs from the NWT fallout it is 1.3 and for the 90Sr results from the NWT fallout it is 3 using the new model.     

Protective effect of different types of bicycle helmets

The effectiveness of bicycle helmets in preventing head injuries is well documented. There are different opinions about the effectiveness of helmets in preventing face injuries, and few studies have analyzed the effect of different types of helmets. This study was performed to examine the effect of different helmet types to head and face injuries. The use of helmets was analyzed in cyclists with head or face injuries and compared with two control groups. The main control group was cyclists that had injuries not including the head or neck, and another control group was cyclists that had been involved in an accident, regardless of whether they had sustained any injury. Cross-table and logistic regression analyses were applied to analyze the protective effect of helmets. A total of 991 injured patients served as a basis for this study. Most of the accidents, (82%) were single accidents with no other persons involved. Of patients with injuries to the head, excluding face, 11.4% had been using hard shell helmets, and 9.6% had been using foam helmets at the time of the accident. Among the emergency room controls, the proportion of hard shell helmet users and foam helmet users was 26.4% and 11.4%, respectively. Compared to non-helmet users, this gave an odds ratio of 0.36 (CI = 0.21-0.60) for getting head injuries if the cyclists had been using hard shell helmets at the time of the injury, and 0.83 (CI = 0.41-1.67) for users of foam helmets. The odds ratio for getting face injuries was 0.90 (CI = 0.58-1.41) among users of hard shell helmets, and 1.87 (CI = 1.03-3.40) for users of foam helmets. The use of hard shell helmets reduced the risk of getting injuries to the head. Children less than nine years old that used foam helmets had an increased risk of getting face injuries. All bicyclists should be recommended to use hard shell bicycle helmets while cycling.     

PM2.5 assessment in 21 European study centers of ECRHS II: Method and first winter results

The follow-up of a cohort of adults from 29 European centers of the former European Community Respiratory Health Survey (ECRHS) I (1989-1992) will examine the long-term effects of exposure to ambient air pollution on the incidence, course, and prognosis of respiratory diseases, in particular asthma and decline in lung function. The purpose of this article is to describe the methodology and the European-wide quality control program for the collection of particles with 50% cut-off size of 2.5 microm aerodynamic diameter (PM2.5) in the ECRHS II and to present the PM2.5 results from the winter period 2000-2001. Because PM2.5 is not routinely monitored in Europe, we measured PM2.5 mass concentrations in 21 participating centers to estimate background exposure in these cities. A standardized protocol was developed using identical equipment in each center (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Well Impactor Ninety-Six [WINS] and PQ167 from BGI, Inc.). Filters were weighed in a single central laboratory. Sampling was conducted for 7 days per month for a year. Winter mean PM2.5 mass concentrations (November 2000-February 2001) varied substantially, with Iceland reporting the lowest value (5 microg/m3) and northern Italy the highest (69 microg/m3). A standardized procedure appropriate for PM2.5 exposure assessment in a multicenter study was developed. We expect ECRHS II to have sufficient variation in exposure to assess long-term effects of air pollution in this cohort. Any bias caused by variation in the characteristics of the chosen monitoring location (e.g., proximity to traffic sources) will be addressed in later analyses. Given the homogenous spatial distribution of PM2.5, however, concentrations measured near traffic are not expected to differ substantially from those measured at urban background sites.     

Review and assessment of models used to predict the fate of radionuclides in lakes

A variety of models for predicting the behaviour of radionuclides in fresh water ecosystems have been developed and tested during recent decades within the framework of many international research projects. These models have been implemented in Computerised Decision Support Systems (CDSS) for assisting the appropriate management of fresh water bodies contaminated by radionuclides. The assessment of the state-of-the-art and the consolidation of these CDSSs has been envisaged, by the scientific community, as a primary necessity for the rationalisation of the sector. The classification of the approaches of the various models, the determination of their essential features, the identification of similarities and differences among them and the definition of their application domains are all essential for the harmonisation of the existing CDSSs and for the possible development and improvement of reference models that can be widely applied in different environmental conditions. The present paper summarises the results of the assessment and evaluation of models for predicting the behaviour of radionuclides in lacustrine ecosystems. Such models were developed and tested within major projects financed by the European Commission during its 4th Framework Programme (1994-1998). The work done during the recent decades by many modellers at an international level has produced some consolidated results that are widely accepted by most experts. Nevertheless, some new results have arisen from recent studies and certain model improvements are still necessary.     

Modelling Change in Ground Vegetation Response to Acid and Nitrogen Pollution, Climate Change and Forest Management at in Sweden 1500–2100 a.d.

The ForSAFE model, designed for modelling biogeochemical cycles (water, acidity, base cation, nitrogen and carbon) in terrestrial ecosystems, was modified with a vegetation response module (VEG), incorporating the effects of: nitrogen pollution, acidification, soil moisture, temperature, wind chill exposure, light and shading by trees, grazing by animals, competition between plants, above ground for light and below ground for water and nutrients. The model calculates the response of number ground vegetation plant groups. The integrated model was tested and validated at integrated level II forest monitoring sites across Sweden, four have been shown here, and used to assess the effect of acidification and nitrogen pollution in relation to factors such as climate change, forest management and changing grazing pressure. The response functions have been derived from single-factor experiments and integrated through the model structure for use on whole systems. The tests with the model suggest that the ground vegetation composition is reasonably well predicted, that much research remains before the model is fully tested and operational, and that the model may serve as a tool for assessing impacts of climate change, acid rain and forest management on plant biodiversity in forested areas.     

Life cycle assessment of lithium-ion batteries for plug-in hybrid electric vehicles – Critical issues

The main aim of the study was to explore how LCA can be used to optimize the design of lithium-ion batteries for plug-in hybrid electric vehicles. Two lithium-ion batteries, both based on lithium iron phosphate, but using different solvents during cell manufacturing, were studied by means of life cycle assessment, LCA. The general conclusions are limited to results showing robustness against variation in critical data. The study showed that it is environmentally preferable to use water as a solvent instead of N-methyl-2-pyrrolidone, NMP, in the slurry for casting the cathode and anode of lithium-ion batteries. Recent years’ improvements in battery technology, especially related to cycle life, have decreased production phase environmental impacts almost to the level of use phase impacts. In the use phase, environmental impacts related to internal battery efficiency are two to six times larger than the impact from losses due to battery weight in plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, assuming 90% internal battery efficiency. Thus, internal battery efficiency is a very important parameter; at least as important as battery weight. Areas, in which data is missing or inadequate and the environmental impact is or may be significant, include: production of binders, production of lithium salts, cell manufacturing and assembly, the relationship between weight of vehicle and vehicle energy consumption, information about internal battery efficiency and recycling of lithium-ion batteries based on lithium iron phosphate.     

Mapping Ecosystem Services for Land Use Planning,the Case of Central Kalimantan

Indonesia is subject to rapid land use change. One of the main causes for the conversion of land is the rapid expansion of the oil palm sector. Land use change involves a progressive loss of forest cover, with major impacts on biodiversity and global CO₂ emissions. Ecosystem services have been proposed as a concept that would facilitate the identification of sustainable land management options, however, the scale of land conversion and its spatial diversity pose particular challenges in Indonesia. The objective of this paper is to analyze how ecosystem services can be mapped at the provincial scale, focusing on Central Kalimantan, and to examine how ecosystem services maps can be used for a land use planning. Central Kalimantan is subject to rapid deforestation including the loss of peatland forests and the provincial still lacks a comprehensive land use plan. We examine how seven key ecosystem services can be mapped and modeled at the provincial scale, using a variety of models, and how large scale ecosystem services maps can support the identification of options for sustainable expansion of palm oil production.     

Using a GIS model to assess terrestrial salamander response to alternative forest management plans.

A GIS model predicting the spatial distribution of terrestrial salamander abundance based on topography and forest age was developed using parameters derived from the literature. The model was tested by sampling salamander abundance across the full range of site conditions used in the model. A regression of the predictions of our GIS model against these sample data showed that the model has a modest but significant ability to predict both salamander abundance and mass per unit area. The model was used to assess the impacts of alternative management plans for the Hoosier National Forest (Indiana, USA) on salamanders. These plans differed in the spatial delineation of management areas where timber harvest was permitted, and the intensity of timber harvest within those management areas. The spatial pattern of forest openings produced by alternative forest management scenarios based on these plans was projected over 150 years using a timber-harvest simulator (HARVEST). We generated a predictive map of salamander abundance for each scenario over time, and summarized each map by calculating mean salamander abundance and the mean colonization distance (average distance from map cells with low predicted abundance to those with relatively high abundance). Projected salamander abundance was affected more by harvest rate (area harvested each decade) than by the management area boundaries. The alternatives had a varying effect on the mean distance salamanders would have to travel to colonize regenerating stands. Our GIS modeling approach is an example of a spatial analytical tool that could help resource management planners to evaluate the potential ecological impact of management alternatives.