气候变化对景观和区域过程的影响及其对气候系统的反馈

北极生态系统的生物和物理过程会在不同的时间、空间尺度上对地球生态系统产生反馈作用,并与之相互影响.气候变化对北极地区的影响及其对全球气候系统的反馈主要存在着四种潜在机制反照率改变、生态系统对温室气体的排放或吸收、甲烷类温室气体的排放、影响海洋暖流淡水量的增长.这些反馈机制在某种程度上是由生态系统的分布和特征,尤其是大规模植被区域变化来控制的.通过少量全年的CO2通量测量表明,目前在地理分布上碳源区要比碳汇区要多.根据目前现有的关于CH4排放源地信息表明,景观规模上的CH4排放量对北极地区的温室效应平衡至关重要.北极地区的能量和水量平衡在变化的气候下,也是一个很重要的反馈机制.植被密度以及分布范围的增加会导致反射率的下降,因而会使地表吸收更多的能量.其效果可能会抵消由于极地沙漠地带向极地苔原带的的转化,或极地苔原带向极地森林带的转化,而造成的植被总净初级生产力碳沉降能力的提高而引起的负反馈.永久冻土带的退化对示踪气体动力学有着很复杂的影响.在不连续的永久冻土带地区,升温将会导致其完全消失.依赖于当地水文条件,温室气体排放可能由于气候环境变的干燥或湿润而使得其通量有所变化.总的来说,影响反馈的各种过程复杂的相互作用,以及这些过程随着时间地点的变化,加之数据的缺乏,又会在陆地生态系统气候变化对气候系统产生反馈作用的净效应估计上,产生许多的不确定性,这种不确定性将会影响到一些反馈的大小和方向.     

How does cell-based non-invasive prenatal test (NIPT) perform against chorionic villus sampling and cell-free NIPT in detecting trisomies and copy number variations? A clinical study from Denmark

Objectives

We aimed to compare cell-based NIPT (cbNIPT) to chorionic villus sampling (CVS) and to examine the test characteristics of cbNIPT in the first clinical validation study of cbNIPT compared to cell-free NIPT (cfNIPT).

Material and Methods

Study 1: Women (N = 92) who accepted CVS were recruited for cbNIPT (53 normal and 39 abnormal). Samples were analyzed with chromosomal microarray (CMA). Study 2: Women (N = 282) who accepted cfNIPT were recruited for cbNIPT. cfNIPT was analyzed using sequencing and cbNIPT by CMA.

Results

Study 1: cbNIPT detected all aberrations (32/32) found in CVS: trisomies 13, 18 and 21 (23/23), pathogenic copy number variations (CNVs) (6/6) and sex chromosome aberrations (3/3). cbNIPT detected 3/8 cases of mosaicism in the placenta. Study 2: cbNIPT detected all trisomies found with cfNIPT (6/6) and had no false positive (0/246). One of the three CNVs called by cbNIPT was confirmed by CVS but was undetected by cfNIPT, two were false positives. cbNIPT detected mosaicism in five samples, of which two were not detected by cfNIPT. cbNIPT failed in 7.8% compared to 2.8% in cfNIPT.

Conclusion

Circulating trophoblasts in the maternal circulation provide the potential of screening for aneuploidies and pathogenic CNVs covering the entire fetal genome.     

Comparing systems approaches to innovation and technological change for sustainable and competitive economies: an explorative study into conceptual commonalities,differences and complementarities

This paper makes a distinction between three theoretical frameworks that have been highly influential in the discourse on innovation, competitiveness and sustainability: sectoral systems of innovation (SSI), technological innovation systems (TIS) and socio-technical systems (ST-Systems). These frameworks share a common systems approach to innovation but are often positioned as different bodies of literature that correspond to different epistemic communities. This paper is explorative and conceptual in nature. It presents a systematic comparative review of SSI, TIS and ST-Systems based on the following analytical dimensions: (1) system boundaries, (2) actors and networks, (3) institutions, (4) knowledge, (5) dynamics and (6) policy approach. In the concluding section commonalities and differences, of the three approaches, are presented and suggestions for complimentarily are made.     

基本原理,概念及评估办法

引言人们普遍认为,全球气候变暖在北极将进一步放大,由于平流层臭氧修复的可能延误,紫外线B(UV-B)辐射可能继续增加,北极环境及其居民可能特别易受这类环境变化的影响.上述共识促进了对气候变化影响的国际评估工作.北极气候影响评估(ACIA)是一项为时4年的研究,结果出版了一篇重要的科研报告[1]并产生了其他的成果.在本文以及本期Ambio专刊下面的文章中,我们提供了报告中针对北极陆地生态系统(从树线群落交错带到极地荒漠)的部分研究成果.     

瑞典北部沿海地区驼鹿生境适宜性建模:经验方法与面向过程方法的比较

生境模型可以为大型蹄类动物与森林资源的协调管理提供有效的工具,然而在该类模型对人工林的适用性方面,还没有进行过综合评估.我们使用两种内在不同的方法,就瑞典北部沿海地区冬季对驼鹿(Alces alces)生境的相对适宜性进行了模拟.基于15头雌驼鹿GPS定位数据的经验方法用于详细研究面向过程的概念方法的各种假设和函数结构.概念方法是基于已发表的关于物种对食物和地表覆盖等相关生境因子选择性的各种文献资料建立的.在两种模型方法中,生境都基于卫星图像估计得到的林块特征加以描述.经验模型也包括了与景观地形特征和到景观特征的距离相关的变量.由两种模型得出的计算结果为生境适宜性指数(HSI)的得分值,通过它可以使两种模型相互比较.两种模型得到的不同结果表明,在将来面向过程的概念模型中包括环境变量的明确空间分布特征很有必要.     

Experiences with unexpected structural chromosome aberrations in prenatal diagnosis in a danish series

The investigation of 5547 prenatal diagnoses showed 31 unexpected structural chromosome rearrangements. These included 3 Robertsonian translocations, 14 reciprocal translocations and 14 inversions. A11 were balanced, including 5 de novo rearrangements. In 3 of these cases an induced abortion was performed and in 2 cases children without detectable malformations were delivered.     

参与式管理解决冲突:遥感和GIS用作瑞典北部驯鹿业土地利用需求信息交流的工具

在解决复杂的土地管理问题时,对短缺或者有争执的资源进行地理评估有助于不同利益相关者之间沟通认识和增进理解.本文中,我们说明如何使用遥感和GIS收集和汇总瑞典北部驯鹿放牧者和其他土地使用者(林业、采矿业、旅游业等等)的土地使用活动及使用模式的信息.该项目主要基于最终的土地使用者,即驯鹿放牧者们所做的工作,体现了面向土地使用者的新的努力.发展驯鹿业的土地利用规划的基础有以下几个方面:收集并数字化传统的驯鹿栖息地生态学和景观信息将这些信息与来自野外调查及基于人造卫星观测的植被分类结果整合;绘制其他土地使用者的活动情况图.最终的土地利用规划提供的信息有利于驯鹿放牧者与其他利益相关者之间的磋商,并有助于驯鹿管理实施.该项目可作为一种大众参与和计划编制的模式,从而使本土信息和先进的遥感技术融入一个交互式的过程中.